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MERS Coronavirus warning

We kept kids of school to limit the spread of the disease, thus lightening the workload of the NHS, whilst the scientific community got an understanding of how Covid-19 worked.

You don't just vaccinate your kids to protect them..you vaccinate to protect the rest of society including those who can't be vaccinated and are then susceptible to that particular infectious disease the vaccine targets.

The NHS was fine; didn't you see all the Tik Tok videos? It was so good they mothballed the Nightingale hospitals.

And people aren't going to use a brand new vaccine on their kids - to protect 80+ year olds - when their kids aren't at risk.

Sorry, grandad.

Here's what an expert says on the matter:

1a.jpg
 
Covid-19 may have become more contagious as it has mutated, the largest genetic study carried out in the US into the virus has suggested, as scientists warn it could be adapting to interventions such as mask-wearing and social distancing.
One variant of the novel coronavirus is now one of the most dominant in America, accounting for 99.9 per cent of cases in one area studied.
The paper concluded that a mutation that changes the structure of the “spike protein” on the surface of the virus may be driving the outsized spread of that particular strain.
Researchers have been sequencing the genomes of the coronavirus at Houston Methodist, one of the largest hospitals in Texas, since early March, when the virus first appeared in the city. To date, they have documented 5,085 sequences.
In the first wave of the outbreak in Houston around March, some 71 per cent of the viruses were characterised by the mutation, which originated in China and is known as D614G.
By the second wave, which began in May and is ongoing, the D614G mutation leaped to 99.9 per cent prevalence.
A tiny tweak in the spike protein of the dominant variant switches an amino acid from aspartic acid to glycine. The new mutation appears to be outdistancing all of its competitors. The graphic below explains more.

The researchers, who include some from the University of Chicago and the University of Texas at Austin, found that people infected with this strain had higher "loads" of virus in their upper respiratory tracts, which allows a virus to spread more effectively.
One of the authors offered that D614G has been increasingly dominant in Houston and other areas because it is better adapted to spreading among humans.
Their paper, published on Wednesday by preprint server MedRxiv, however, did not find that it was more deadly.
A similar study published in the UK had similar results, finding that D614G was increasing in frequency at “an alarming rate” and had rapidly become the dominant Covid-19 lineage in Europe and had then taken hold in the US, Canada and Australia.
By failing to control the spread in the US - which has the highest number of cases in the world - the virus has been given more opportunity to mutate in a shorter amount of time.

David Morens, a virologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), told the Washington Post the findings point to the possibility that the virus has become more transmissible and that this “may have implications for our ability to control it”.
Mr Morens cautioned that it was only one study that had not yet been peer-reviewed and “you don’t want to over-interpret what this means”. But the virus, he said, could potentially be responding - through mutations - to such interventions as hand-washing and social distancing.
“Wearing masks, washing our hands, all those things are barriers to transmissibility, or contagion, but as the virus becomes more contagious it statistically is better at getting around those barriers,” said Mr Morens, senior adviser to Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of NIAID.

As a rule, the more genetic diversity a virus has the more prepared it is to evolve away from future treatments and vaccines.
Other virologists downplayed the importance of the study, saying much is still unknown about the various mutations of the virus and how virulent they are.
Studying mutations in detail, however, could be important for controlling the pandemic. It might help to pre-empt the most worrying of mutations - those that could help the virus to evade immune systems, vaccines or antibody therapies.

Cheers.
 
He gives an interview explaining why India's only viable option is to pursue herd immunity, but much of it is general information relevant to the world.

I've not yet listened to it all, but the stuff I've listened to is well worth it.


Note Prof Bhopal's jock accent.

I note they don't do him the service of using the term "Population Immunity" in the title.
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
It seems common sense that we are following France and Spain in Covid progress and I think the government has said as much.

The chart below shows the new admissions for the regions of France and it does appear to be generally slowing/ flat lining. I would say they are 3 weeks ahead of the UK. Deaths remain flat at around 50 per day and in no way could you imagine their health service is under stress. In Spain both deaths and cases are today less than they were a week ago. I would say Spain is one month ahead of the UK.

New admissions France.JPG


I have said before and repeat again I only hope that the doomsday people who want to close down the world for another year will shut up when this "second wave" is shown to be no more than a ripple and accept that places that have already had it to a heavy extent have achieved a high degree of immunity.

 
Just in from the ONS

View attachment 506873

Not only is it an utter b@st@rd of a virus, but in the UK it is also a racist b@st@rd of a virus.
The most likely reason for a greater proportion of black and Asian people being infected than white people would be that a greater proportion of the former live in densely populated urban areas where the virus can more easily spread.

Those figures are also from early in the pandemic, when infection was mainly in a few large cities, again with a high minority population.
 
It seems common sense that we are following France and Spain in Covid progress and I think the government has said as much.

The chart below shows the new admissions for the regions of France and it does appear to be generally slowing/ flat lining. I would say they are 3 weeks ahead of the UK. Deaths remain flat at around 50 per day and in no way could you imagine their health service is under stress. In Spain both deaths and cases are today less than they were a week ago. I would say Spain is one month ahead of the UK.

View attachment 507023

I have said before and repeat again I only hope that the doomsday people who want to close down the world for another year will shut up when this "second wave" is shown to be no more than a ripple and accept that places that have already had it to a heavy extent have achieved a high degree of immunity.

France and Spain have been taking measures to slow the spread of new infections, so it may be that their efforts are producing a result.
 
And Lastwalt reckoned that kids don't really spread the disease. I just took his word for it and didn't check out his evidence.

So someone's wrong here.

And yet from ABC Valencia
"Coronavirus infections in minors between 0 and 9 years old in the Valencian Community has shot up more than 35 percent in recent weeks, coinciding with the start of the school year. "

"The period between September 7 - the day on which face-to-face classes and many other extracurricular activities were resumed - and the last records on the 22nd of the same month has resulted in 710 new positives detected in that age group. "


"109 educational centers in the Valencian Community have had to confine some of their groups when detecting positive for coronavirus among students or teachers."

"In particular they have been 1 53 classrooms of the three provinces that have been affected by the pandemic during the first days of the academic year up to the 18 September-."
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
France and Spain have been taking measures to slow the spread of new infections, so it may be that their efforts are producing a result.
Sure it's possible but then again I am sure that BJ also thinks he has god like powers that brought a halt to the virus in April barely 2 weeks after introducing the planned original short lockdown.
 
Covid-19 may have become more contagious as it has mutated, the largest genetic study carried out in the US into the virus has suggested, as scientists warn it could be adapting to interventions such as mask-wearing and social distancing.
One variant of the novel coronavirus is now one of the most dominant in America, accounting for 99.9 per cent of cases in one area studied.
The paper concluded that a mutation that changes the structure of the “spike protein” on the surface of the virus may be driving the outsized spread of that particular strain.
Researchers have been sequencing the genomes of the coronavirus at Houston Methodist, one of the largest hospitals in Texas, since early March, when the virus first appeared in the city. To date, they have documented 5,085 sequences.
In the first wave of the outbreak in Houston around March, some 71 per cent of the viruses were characterised by the mutation, which originated in China and is known as D614G.
By the second wave, which began in May and is ongoing, the D614G mutation leaped to 99.9 per cent prevalence.
A tiny tweak in the spike protein of the dominant variant switches an amino acid from aspartic acid to glycine. The new mutation appears to be outdistancing all of its competitors. The graphic below explains more.

The researchers, who include some from the University of Chicago and the University of Texas at Austin, found that people infected with this strain had higher "loads" of virus in their upper respiratory tracts, which allows a virus to spread more effectively.
One of the authors offered that D614G has been increasingly dominant in Houston and other areas because it is better adapted to spreading among humans.
Their paper, published on Wednesday by preprint server MedRxiv, however, did not find that it was more deadly.
A similar study published in the UK had similar results, finding that D614G was increasing in frequency at “an alarming rate” and had rapidly become the dominant Covid-19 lineage in Europe and had then taken hold in the US, Canada and Australia.
By failing to control the spread in the US - which has the highest number of cases in the world - the virus has been given more opportunity to mutate in a shorter amount of time.

David Morens, a virologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), told the Washington Post the findings point to the possibility that the virus has become more transmissible and that this “may have implications for our ability to control it”.
Mr Morens cautioned that it was only one study that had not yet been peer-reviewed and “you don’t want to over-interpret what this means”. But the virus, he said, could potentially be responding - through mutations - to such interventions as hand-washing and social distancing.
“Wearing masks, washing our hands, all those things are barriers to transmissibility, or contagion, but as the virus becomes more contagious it statistically is better at getting around those barriers,” said Mr Morens, senior adviser to Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of NIAID.

As a rule, the more genetic diversity a virus has the more prepared it is to evolve away from future treatments and vaccines.
Other virologists downplayed the importance of the study, saying much is still unknown about the various mutations of the virus and how virulent they are.
Studying mutations in detail, however, could be important for controlling the pandemic. It might help to pre-empt the most worrying of mutations - those that could help the virus to evade immune systems, vaccines or antibody therapies.
This seems to be related to stories posted back in early May, originally by @SkippedOnce , and discussed then.


In June I posted a follow-up, with a link to a more detailed report on the study, originally published in March.


They were being referred to as the "Asian" and "European" strains of the virus, with the "European" strain being more infectious than the "Asian" strain.
 
And yet from ABC Valencia
"Coronavirus infections in minors between 0 and 9 years old in the Valencian Community has shot up more than 35 percent in recent weeks, coinciding with the start of the school year. "

"The period between September 7 - the day on which face-to-face classes and many other extracurricular activities were resumed - and the last records on the 22nd of the same month has resulted in 710 new positives detected in that age group. "


"109 educational centers in the Valencian Community have had to confine some of their groups when detecting positive for coronavirus among students or teachers."

"In particular they have been 1 53 classrooms of the three provinces that have been affected by the pandemic during the first days of the academic year up to the 18 September-."

This is great news for those who think herd immunity is part of the right strategy.

A recap of the discussion was that the vaccine initially will be in short supply and will be strategically dished out and @lastwalt thought that kids would be last to be given it and that it could be a year away before they even started giving it to children.

I thought that sounded like a good idea and during that year children would get the corona' and develop immunity, further enhancing herd immunity. Children are at almost no risk; flu has killed more kids this year than the corona' (I can provide good evidence if anyone wants it).

Keep in mind that we know corona is safe for kids, but it won't be known (possibly ever known) if the vaccine is safer than the corona for children.
 

Winnet

Old-Salt
View attachment 506877
It seems common sense that we are following France and Spain in Covid progress and I think the government has said as much.

The chart below shows the new admissions for the regions of France and it does appear to be generally slowing/ flat lining. I would say they are 3 weeks ahead of the UK. Deaths remain flat at around 50 per day and in no way could you imagine their health service is under stress. In Spain both deaths and cases are today less than they were a week ago. I would say Spain is one month ahead of the UK.

View attachment 507023

I have said before and repeat again I only hope that the doomsday people who want to close down the world for another year will shut up when this "second wave" is shown to be no more than a ripple and accept that places that have already had it to a heavy extent have achieved a high degree of immunity.


According to GeoRank we are 7 days behind the French with figures being 639.6 v 746.3 cases per 100k.
 

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