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MERS Coronavirus warning

Unfortunately, yes.

That is why the government is trying to get people flu vaccinated so they do not have both conditions at once.
There will be a push on in Ontario to get as many people as possible vaccinated against flu this year. One reason is that getting flu and COVID-19 is more serious than getting either alone. The other, and probably more important reason is that the health authorities don't want people who have normal flu to be clogging up the health system, both for testing and for treatment.

As a result of this extra vaccine has been ordered. Flu vaccination is free here, it's seen as a cost saving for the health system. I've already inquired at my local pharmacy as to when they will be doing vaccinations and they said they will start in mid-October.

There is a complication however. Doctors do a lot of the annual flu shots at their offices in scheduled "flu clinics", and they are the only ones who can do vaccinations for small children. They can't run the usual assembly line type vaccination process however due to social distancing requirements. As a result they are asking the government to try to organise locations such as arenas or other areas where they can do flu shots in large numbers while maintaining social distance.
 
There will be a push on in Ontario to get as many people as possible vaccinated against flu this year. One reason is that getting flu and COVID-19 is more serious than getting either alone. The other, and probably more important reason is that the health authorities don't want people who have normal flu to be clogging up the health system, both for testing and for treatment.

As a result of this extra vaccine has been ordered. Flu vaccination is free here, it's seen as a cost saving for the health system. I've already inquired at my local pharmacy as to when they will be doing vaccinations and they said they will start in mid-October.

There is a complication however. Doctors do a lot of the annual flu shots at their offices in scheduled "flu clinics", and they are the only ones who can do vaccinations for small children. They can't run the usual assembly line type vaccination process however due to social distancing requirements. As a result they are asking the government to try to organise locations such as arenas or other areas where they can do flu shots in large numbers while maintaining social distance.

The flu vaccine campaign in Spain is starting on October 5th. That's about a month earlier than normal for here. As I understand it, they get the first inkling of the strain which starts in the Far East. A couple of years ago, in UK, the flu season started late in Asia so they weren't sure which strain to use and went ahead which led to a rather rapid increase in deaths that year. It wasn't "ineffective" as some made out, just didn't know the prevalent strain for that year.

The flu vac in Spain is free to many and a small cost for others at the pharmacy. Like you, in the past we show up at 8 in the morning with about 70 or 80 waiting to have it done. They've decreased the age this year so all over 50 get it free instead of over 65 but it will be by appointment only which could cause severe delays.

Over 10,000 new cases in Spain today and another 130 deaths. Madrid Region still the hardest hit with almost 50% of both cases and deaths. Our Region, Valencia, has stopped the extra restrictions in Valencia City due to a 22% drop in cases over the last 2 weeks but the general restrictions on restaurant opening times, smoking in public etc will continue to the end of the month. About 3 or 4 weeks ago, the number of cases and deaths in Spain was about the same as UK today.

The deaths per 100,000 is running at something like 750 in Madrid, Valencia City about 140 and the remaining part of the Valencia Community about 30 (23 if you ignore the City).
 
they get the first inkling of the strain which starts in the Far East.

It's always them, isn't it?

Wor Lass gets narky when she sees Chinese wearing facemasks. She's like "Look at them; they bring it over here and then they've got the cheek to mask up".

I'm pretty sure she's not racist towards Orientals though.

Anyone any idea why it starts in the far east?
 
An open letter from Raj Bhopal, Emeritus Professor of Public Health, The University of Edinburgh Medical School:


It's in the BMJ and I'm sure it's going to annoy many since it discusses 'population immunity' (rather than *clutches pearls* OMFG Herd Immunity), and talks about the problems with a vaccine.

Anyway, unlike my commentary, it's a thoughtfully written piece from someone I'm sure the fearful will describe as '2nd rate'.
 
An open letter from Raj Bhopal, Emeritus Professor of Public Health, The University of Edinburgh Medical School:


It's in the BMJ and I'm sure it's going to annoy many since it discusses 'population immunity' (rather than *clutches pearls* OMFG Herd Immunity), and talks about the problems with a vaccine.

Anyway, unlike my commentary, it's a thoughtfully written piece from someone I'm sure the fearful will describe as '2nd rate'.


Interesting letter and I agree with the author.

BTW - the part of the letter I think you should pay particularly attention to is here:

"At last, differing perspectives are being aired. This is healthy ".
 
It's always them, isn't it?

Wor Lass gets narky when she sees Chinese wearing facemasks. She's like "Look at them; they bring it over here and then they've got the cheek to mask up".

I'm pretty sure she's not racist towards Orientals though.

Anyone any idea why it starts in the far east?

By the "Far East" I think it refers to the strains in Australia and New Zealand as well. More a seasonal thing rather than the Yellow Peril attacking us.
 
Yes, 'OMFG herd immunity' is getting discussed without people accusing the Tories of mass euthanasia, or doing a 'Logan's Run' on them.

Did you notice the evidence Prof Bhopal provided with regards long term immunity?

The evidence being a guardian article which says only a few people have been reinfected so far. There's no empirical evidence yet to say how long immunity lasts for, because the disease has not been around for long - this is the point the authors in the articles I have posted, have made. This BMJ letter does not mean those authors are wrong in vocalising that we do not have the empirical data yet.

Personally, I am not sure the cost benefit of trashing our economy vs saving lives is worth it anyway, but the fact is we do not know an awful lot about the disease. The other point being the effects of long COVID in survivors, which also needs to be factored into the equation..
 
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And who has accused the Tories of mass euthanasia btw?

Sorry, not mass euthanasia, it was genocide:

1b.jpg


PhotoEx suggested something along the lines of 'Logan's Run'. Granted he's a bit hysterical over this issue.
 
but the fact is we do not know an awful lot about the disease.

Sure. But neither do we know much about the vaccine. To know if the vaccine is safe in the long term - say ten years down the line - we will have to wait ten years to find out. That's not a practical solution.

This is Prof Bopal's take on it:

1a.jpg


No matter which way you look at it, some calculated risks are going to have to be taken.
 
Sure. But neither do we know much about the vaccine. To know if the vaccine is safe in the long term - say ten years down the line - we will have to wait ten years to find out. That's not a practical solution.

This is Prof Bopal's take on it:

View attachment 506811

No matter which way you look at it, some calculated risks are going to have to be taken.

I think so. And either way, this is a shit situation which is unlikely to end anytime soon. Personally I would like to return to more normal than we have now, and just put proper procedures in place such as hygiene, social distancing, making sure venues etc are cleaned; taking temperatures before entering venues, public transport, work etc (and continue to allow people to work from home); and then proper contact tracing.
 
That's what Hancock tried to suggest

But the maths is more worrying because false positives are by reference to entire tested population and becomes really dangerous to rely on with a low disease incidence level

10,000 mugs get tested.

Incidence of disease is per ONS around 0.1%, so that's 10. Fine. Test picks them all up hopefully.

But we know the False Positive Rate of the PCR swab test is 0.8%. Hancock blathered happily away about that.

But it is 0.8% of 10,000: 80!

So 10 real Positives and 80 false positives.

And all 90 then get solemnly reported as "cases" or "infections" and fed into models stuffed with extreme assumptions

That's what they are all dancing around: still largely flying blind

Only real measures are going to be hospitalisations and deaths
That outlines the basic math principles, but it's actually a bit more complicated than that. The people getting tested are not randomly selected from the population, so the statistics gets more involved. Also, the test positivity rate in Ontario was until recently around 0.3%, which is well below the 0.8% cited above as the false positive rate.

More importantly, there's a lot more to testing than just the machine's false positive rate. You also have to evaluate the lab procedures, and these may vary from country to country.

For example, here's an example of testing in Grey Bruce Count in Ontario. In short, they evaluate every positive result according to what other information they have. If there is any doubt, they re-test the original sample along with two further samples. If most come back negative, they declare it a false positive.
Every positive test result is evaluated in light of the laboratory, clinical, and epidemiological information. If the initial positive test result is in question, the original sample is re-tested along with two further samples. If most come back negative, a false positive is declared. This process can take from 1-10 days due to the various different labs potentially working on the test.

So quoting a test false positivity test on its own tells you nothing unless you know what other procedures surround the test itself.

False negatives are probably more of an issue, as it isn't practical to re-test every negative result.
 
It's always them, isn't it?

Wor Lass gets narky when she sees Chinese wearing facemasks. She's like "Look at them; they bring it over here and then they've got the cheek to mask up".

I'm pretty sure she's not racist towards Orientals though.

Anyone any idea why it starts in the far east?
By the "Far East" I think it refers to the strains in Australia and New Zealand as well. More a seasonal thing rather than the Yellow Peril attacking us.
Canada looks at east Asia, Australia, Argentina, and a number of other places that I can't recall. Australia and Argentina are particularly useful because their seasons are reversed from ours. That means that their flu season comes during our spring and summer, and visa versa. If we look at what flu is going around there during their flu season we have a good idea of what will make it here when our flu season arrives. I imagine they do the same in reverse.

Flu viruses circulate around the world continuously, mutating slowly as they go along. Different parts of the world with different climates and different seasons see their peak flu season at different time of the year.

So, what is prevalent elsewhere in the world will eventually make it here, and whatever is prevalent here will make it there, and by the time it comes back here again the next year it will have changed again.

We know that the COVID-19 virus does mutate, but at this time we don't think the parts of if which the vaccines are targetting change very rapidly, unlike regular seasonal flu.
 
Sure. But neither do we know much about the vaccine. To know if the vaccine is safe in the long term - say ten years down the line - we will have to wait ten years to find out. That's not a practical solution.

This is Prof Bopal's take on it:

View attachment 506811

No matter which way you look at it, some calculated risks are going to have to be taken.
There are more than 100 different vaccines being developed, and it is expected that at least half a dozen will be successful. Each successful one will have its pros and cons. From what I have read it is quite likely that several different ones will be used, with different parts of the population getting different ones.
 
There are more than 100 different vaccines being developed, and it is expected that at least half a dozen will be successful. Each successful one will have its pros and cons. From what I have read it is quite likely that several different ones will be used, with different parts of the population getting different ones.

Yes, but none of that negates Bopal's points. For example we're not going to know if the vaccine is more dangerous to children than the coronavirus. As it stands he's done a survey of 8 European countries and the USA and found that covid is responsible for a tiny number of child deaths; he says normal influenza has killed more.

So the ethics of vaccinating children with an 'unknown vaccine' against an illness which poses next to no threat to them, will have to be discussed.

And like I say, if you want to know whichever vaccine is safe ten years down the line, you have to wait ten years to find out. There's no short cuts here.

Bopal points out that a vaccine isn't going to be a panacea.
 
Yes, but none of that negates Bopal's points. For example we're not going to know if the vaccine is more dangerous to children than the coronavirus. As it stands he's done a survey of 8 European countries and the USA and found that covid is responsible for a tiny number of child deaths; he says normal influenza has killed more.

So the ethics of vaccinating children with an 'unknown vaccine' against an illness which poses next to no threat to them, will have to be discussed.

And like I say, if you want to know whichever vaccine is safe ten years down the line, you have to wait ten years to find out. There's no short cuts here.

Bopal points out that a vaccine isn't going to be a panacea.
I don't know if anyone is planning on vaccinating children with the first generation of vaccines. There also may not even be enough vaccine to go around for everyone to get a shot in the first year, they may have to set priorities.

It will probably be at least a year before any decisions about vaccinating children will have to be made and we'll know a lot more about the disease and the vaccines at that time.
 
I don't know if anyone is planning on vaccinating children with the first generation of vaccines. There also may not even be enough vaccine to go around for everyone to get a shot in the first year, they may have to set priorities.

It will probably be at least a year before any decisions about vaccinating children will have to be made and we'll know a lot more about the disease and the vaccines at that time.

By then, the children may have acquired OMFG herd immunity and may not need the vaccine at all?
 

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