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MERS Coronavirus warning

Sort of like The Powers That Be did by effectively shutting down our healthcare system and offloading people who tested positive into care homes?

I don't think most people go about their lives - having a life worth living - with the intention of killing others.
Lots of errors made, always going to be the case with an unknown pandemic.
 
And how would you feel about abandoning your family during a crisis to obey blanket rules designed to stop the spread of a virus that you personally recovered from one month earlier?
You aren't abandoning them just because you can't visit them, it's happened to thousands so far during this epidemic.
 
Any related spike in deaths?
It's too soon to see if there will be a spike in deaths, as hospitalisations lags infections and deaths lag hospitalisations. There is a surge in nursing home outbreaks however, which does not bode well.

There was an article in the news yesterday where a public health doctor was telling the public to be prepared for a second round of deaths this winter such as we had in the spring, although perhaps not as bad. He said that once infection becomes prevalent in the community it will be impossible to keep it out of nursing homes and other places where vulnerable people live. The only successful strategy to deal with that situation is to keep overall infection levels low in the community at large, which is what the province is trying to do.

I get the idea this thing is here to stay and will mutate as it goes along, just like flu. We'll have to learn to live with it, like we do with the annual flu strains, or go back to living under trees.
There are multiple vaccines under development and testing that look very promising. Pretty much everyone involved seems to think that several of them will work out and mass vaccinations can proceed in late spring or during the summer.

If the virus mutates like seasonal flu, then we'll need annual vaccinations just like we get with regular flu. The main problem will be with people who refuse to get vaccinated and how to keep them away from everyone else.
 
He said that once infection becomes prevalent in the community it will be impossible to keep it out of nursing homes and other places where vulnerable people live. The only successful strategy to deal with that situation is to keep overall infection levels low in the community at large, which is what the province is trying to do.

Not according to another epidemiologist from Oxford University (that lass of Indian origin; can't remember her name).

She reckons that if you focus your testing in care homes and anyone who has anything to do with care homes (rather than children who're at almost zero risk), then you'll reduce the risk of care home infections.

She does point out it's not risk free, but then almost nothing is.

You've got to strategise your testing.
 
The main problem will be with people who refuse to get vaccinated and how to keep them away from everyone else.

You could chip them and integrate a scanning system where if their chip doesn't have the info that shows an up-to-date vaccination, then they're denied entry to workplaces or shops.

Prof Harari (I love his books) wrote a great essay on just this kind of thing:

Free to read:

I'm very much pro-vaccination, btw, but never compulsory vaccination. I guess I rate human freedoms over human life, maybe because so many have died to ensure we have our freedoms.

We don't need 100% vaccination compliance for the coronavirus anyway.
 
No they aren't, they are to try and prevent high spread, whilst keeping as much open as possible and preventing the NHS from getting swamped. Next will be another bigger lockdown, as hospital admission is increasing, thus most likely resulting in further deaths.

To be fair based on the current casedemic then the 'rules' are not working.
Or they did and are no longer necessary as the mortality and hospitalisation rates are minimal.
Although, possibly quite rightly having worked in the NHS, you seem to be suggesting that going to hospital likely results in death.

Reuters says 3899 positive today - so around 500 less than yesterday and all of 18 dead according to the Indi.
Other non Wuhan deaths are obviously unimportant and far greater in number, but we know about those and deal with them.
 

Chalkythedog

Old-Salt
No Royalty present for the 80th Anniversary of the Battle of Britain at Westminster Abbey today. Normally this would have been an opportunity too good to miss for them to demonstrate their indispensability to national life. Men in uniform? Westminster Abbey ? An occasion worthy of a princeling at least, if not HM the Q then surely Prince Charles? William?
Alas it seems they've all gone to ground. Maybe there is something to this Covid thing after all.
 

GDog

Old-Salt
If the virus mutates like seasonal flu, then we'll need annual vaccinations just like we get with regular flu. The main problem will be with people who refuse to get vaccinated and how to keep them away from everyone else.

I hold a science degree, regard the views of anti-vaccination campaigners in low regard and have been quite content to be vaccinated against various pathogens in my life.

I wouldn't touch the forthcoming coronavirus vaccine with a 40 foot barge pole. The approval and safety work is being done far too quickly and I've no faith in those who supervise it to be truthful.
 
I wouldn't touch the forthcoming coronavirus vaccine with a 40 foot barge pole. The approval and safety work is being done far too quickly and I've no faith in those who supervise it to be truthful.

You look at the methodology of the vaccine production and action. You check if it has been designed to counter the problems associated with earlier coronavirus vaccines. Then you make an informed decision. The government has bought into a number of candidate vaccines.
 
Not sure why you attributed @pc supa's post to me, but surely the reason the Nightingales were so underused is because the various measures to protect the NHS worked so well.

Apologies for messing with the quote function.

And I agree, but they've not worked out well in the long run if we're following France and Spain and headed for a 2nd wave (though I'm still not convinced we are yet).

One of the reasons the Swedes took their approach is because they said it's a marathon, not a sprint and they knew that any measures they introduced had to be sustainable.

It looks like our policy makers want their cake and eat it as in they bring in unsustainable measures (the hard lockdown) and then expect everyone to adhere to a set of ever-increasing-rules, which human nature may dictate won't work.

Maybe those Swedes got it right?
 

GDog

Old-Salt
You look at the methodology of the vaccine production and action. You check if it has been designed to counter the problems associated with earlier coronavirus vaccines. Then you make an informed decision. The government has bought into a number of candidate vaccines.

If something was wrong, would the Government admit it?
 
Not according to another epidemiologist from Oxford University (that lass of Indian origin; can't remember her name).

She reckons that if you focus your testing in care homes and anyone who has anything to do with care homes (rather than children who're at almost zero risk), then you'll reduce the risk of care home infections.

She does point out it's not risk free, but then almost nothing is.

You've got to strategise your testing.
That's exactly what was tried here, and it didn't work. The overall infection and death rate were lower in Canada than in the UK, but in hot spots such as Montreal it was still absolute carnage because the virus was everywhere and in that environment testing was just closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.
 
That's exactly what was tried here, and it didn't work. The overall infection and death rate were lower in Canada than in the UK, but in hot spots such as Montreal it was still absolute carnage because the virus was everywhere and in that environment testing was just closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

I'm sure we could do a better job of it than the Canuks:

 
To be fair based on the current casedemic then the 'rules' are not working.
Or they did and are no longer necessary as the mortality and hospitalisation rates are minimal.
Although, possibly quite rightly having worked in the NHS, you seem to be suggesting that going to hospital likely results in death.

Reuters says 3899 positive today - so around 500 less than yesterday and all of 18 dead according to the Indi.
Other non Wuhan deaths are obviously unimportant and far greater in number, but we know about those and deal with them.
Where exactly did I say that or suggest anything of the sort ?
 
Speak for yourself.

I've just had my sister on the phone who is at her wits end with stress as our dad has been readmitted to hospital with cancer and is now deteriorating rapidly - she clearly thinks there isn't much time left.

I am not going to piss about with Hancock's flawed rules if I need to support my family or ensure my dad doesn't die alone, especially given that I've already caught covid-19.
And you'd have Cummings actions and the government saying it's OK to break the law as defence were you nicked. Which is why I argued for Cummings to go originally.

The road from Barnard Castle – government and the problem of illegality
 
It's too soon to see if there will be a spike in deaths, as hospitalisations lags infections and deaths lag hospitalisations. There is a surge in nursing home outbreaks however, which does not bode well.

There was an article in the news yesterday where a public health doctor was telling the public to be prepared for a second round of deaths this winter such as we had in the spring, although perhaps not as bad. He said that once infection becomes prevalent in the community it will be impossible to keep it out of nursing homes and other places where vulnerable people live. The only successful strategy to deal with that situation is to keep overall infection levels low in the community at large, which is what the province is trying to do.


There are multiple vaccines under development and testing that look very promising. Pretty much everyone involved seems to think that several of them will work out and mass vaccinations can proceed in late spring or during the summer.

If the virus mutates like seasonal flu, then we'll need annual vaccinations just like we get with regular flu. The main problem will be with people who refuse to get vaccinated and how to keep them away from everyone else.
The hospitals should be better placed to manage now.
 
Interesting; I think the prof is saying that there was always a higher rate of the coronavirus in the background than testing was picking up.

And the normal increase in the snivels (colds/flu/non-covid respiratory illnesses) has made more people get tested which accounts for the higher numbers of positive tests; in essence, no real increase at present, we're just finding more of the cases that were in the background already.

And given that the coronavirus is now endemic, like colds/flu, we should see an increase as we go into winter, but we shouldn't do anything that would push the normal increase further into the winter when more people are less resilient (lack of vitamin D), or more will die in feb/mar/apr than what would've if we did nothing.


I'm a Geordie, so happy to be informed I'm wrong by smarter minds.
 

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