It's informative (I think) to listen to this More or Less episode from the 31st of January on the use and abuse of the R0 value. Its the first 10 minutes or so.
It's the R number PLUS the speed of transmission that's needed.
For Aids, one person may infect another three people, but that might be over a 10 year timescale.
So R3 over a long period of years.
Whereas R1.1 with a super-fast rate of transmission would be far more contagious than Aids' R3.
For context, I'm just making a point regarding a possible reason why Prof Heneghan dismissed the R number as something useful.
Air Canada and WestJet have cancelled at least 439 flights so far this month, according to figures from flight data firm Cirium.
The cancellations come after airlines banked on a return of business travel and a continued uptick in leisure trips in the fall, said John Gradek, who heads McGill University's Global Aviation Leadership program.
"They've decided since about the end of July to let loose on scheduled services and increasing the number of routes, at the same time hoping that the government will loosen up some of its restrictions. And that's not been the case," he said.
Now, airlines are cancelling the half-booked flights and consolidating passengers on remaining ones to cut costs.
"There has not been a take-up by the Canadian travelling public of those seats that are being offered by the carriers, so they're cutting back those services significantly ... and it's being done piecemeal rather than being done wholesale," Gradek said.
I don't suppose there's an equivalent of an NCO who can slap the 'Officer' and try to explain that you don't make the map (model) fit the ground (data), you make the ground fit the map?
I appreciate that there are many on here who will have heard this but have instead preferred to go their own way and wander around lost in the dark and failed to achieve anything.
As Boris says we're in the second wave and doomed, look at all the dead people.
We're due to become a hotzone shortly and we had to climb of mountains of the dead when we just went out for a meal.
Well no we didn't obviously and no one seems to be overly bothered anymore.
Seems to be more a case of Government panic, try to panic the populous and a lot of 'That's nice dear, is it that bad tut tut, never mind. You have your lock down, good for you. Right have they gone? So as I was saying....'
May be of interest:He is hedging his bets . On the face of it, there is nothing wrong with statements about hygiene etc.
He appears to reject the concept of R rate. It does concern me that he does not cover the idea of lag and log phase in his pronouncements.
Someone said that it is not exponential. It isn't at the moment because we are in a lag phase. The purpose of localised lockdowns is to make sure we do not go into the exponential phase, ie the log phase AGAIN.
It is probably endemic by now. Hence the time needed to get a vaccine so that we can treat it as a normal endemic syndrome.
I also think Hancock said that he didn't want a lockdown. A full lockdown will be gained when those people who have no self discipline cause a spread and exponential growth.
I want to see his evidenced statements to include a refutation of why we will not revert to log growth with only basic hygiene methods and so on as he has stated.
If he can show that, I will give him some credence. A telly interview really does not cut it. He is just kiting opinions.
May be of interest:
It does mean when I ask for my elective surgery in a few months I might get a spot on the surgical list. Or they might **** me off at the high port as they need to keep the bed free for non-existent COVID cases. Eeeny meeny miney mo.When this nonsense got going, we were told it was necessary to 'protect the NHS.' It was certainly a good opportunity for NHS managers to clear the decks and empty their wards of those tiresome 'patients' who were duly dispatched to care homes where they duly obliged by dying. You won't find many bed blockers in NHS wards today. In fact you won't find any patients at all. Hospitals are empty. East European contract nurses are going home, probably never to return. Which rather begs the question, 'why has the economy been trashed to keep the hospitals empty?'
The ONS data is interesting as they publish reported deaths broken down by cause of death in quite precise detail - Deaths involving COVID-19, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics