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MERS Coronavirus warning

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
UK government and media are still pushing the “cases are rising” fear button despite largely the opposite actually being the case.

The pillar 1 positive tests that include those who are actually sick continue to decline and today are at the lowest levels since the start of the virus at just 64. Any overall increase in the positive case numbers of 900 – 1100 remains primarily due to increased testing, targeted testing and false positives in the pillar 2 samples.

Hospital cases went up a little two days ago but are again reducing and are now at 583 from 727 one week ago.

Interest has been raised by academics over the Zoe App from which data is analysed by Kings College London. Over 4 million UK people have downloaded this and send details of their daily status. The results correctly predicted the low in cases on July 8th and are aligning with the current actual reduction in cases.

Hospital deaths remain at the same low levels of typically 6 per day for England.
 

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The demographic of the Zoe app is not representative of the population as a whole. Weighted towards females and higher income brackets/lower age groups.

So, if only dwarfs use a ruler, the average population height is lower.

In other words, there is no way of knowing how representative these numbers are, Interest , yes. Reliance, not a chance.

In addition, from your charts, we have about 28000 people symptomatic on 10th August. We can assume there are many more infected. Have you any idea how these numbers would pan out with exponential growth on an R0 of 1.2/1.3 in the real world?
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
The demographic of the Zoe app is not representative of the population as a whole. Weighted towards females and higher income brackets/lower age groups.

So, if only dwarfs use a ruler, the average population height is lower.

In other words, there is no way of knowing how representative these numbers are, Interest , yes. Reliance, not a chance.

In addition, from your charts, we have about 28000 people symptomatic on 10th August. We can assume there are many more infected. Have you any idea how these numbers would pan out with exponential growth on an R0 of 1.2/1.3 in the real world?

Zoe app - A good point made however with 4 million participants it’s a lot of data and I think it would largely even out. It seems to work.

With respect to many cases they are out there without a doubt. The next elephant in the room is how many people is it actually killing or seriously affecting. The changing of the death count today reduced the overall total slightly but the main issue is the real daily number. PHE/ ONS seem now to agree that perhaps 20 is more appropriate. I still think that is double the true figure. This would match better the data of France, Spain and Italy.

How much of the remaining economy do you kill for 10 or 20 people a day.
 
Zoe app - A good point made however with 4 million participants it’s a lot of data and I think it would largely even out. It seems to work.

It doesn't work like that in terms of statistical validity but we can hope that the app will role out to a wider set of people. Unfortunately, it is likely to miss the older cohorts as such things are of the breath of Beelzebub, Lord of the flies to many boomers.

The economy is opening up gradually. The economy is not trashed, just dormant. It will recover. In any event, we cannot afford the exponential growth again because that will mean much more than 20 people die. In addition, we have to think of this on a strategic scale. Whilst we can lift some restrictions many will remain as this pathogen goes through 2nd and third world countries with little control because their medical services are no good. Travel restrictions and controls will remain in place as will a tightening of borders etc.

I would suggest also that the number of people dying is lower because the medics have now worked up useful protocols for dealing with patients but also because the first wave has taken the first lot of highly vulnerable.

The problem here is that everyone's opinion is conjecture. It is a process of balancing risk against reward. We have been quite successful. Bear in mind that I will not even entertain the idea of it being worth the loss of the vulnerable to maintain the economy. The 20 number isn't the real number.
 
OTOH, how many debilitated people do you accumulate to look after over over a period of possibly many years and possibly very expensively.

It's a question we have been trying to solve for thousands of years. Then again, it is dead easy to say we should allow to die any one over 50, with a gammy leg, with ginger hair etc up until that time one becomes 50, develops a gammy leg or becomes ginger*


* Forget the last . Am trying to be serious here.
 

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
Thanks. I realise that but the name still carries the same meaning. Presumably they are hoping that the product will orbit the earth. Sales plus hearts and minds comrade. ;)


Yes. The 's' means with, 'put' is journey and 'nik' is a chap or agent doing the business.
 
Bear in mind that I will not even entertain the idea of it being worth the loss of the vulnerable to maintain the economy. The 20 number isn't the real number.

Don't you read about the resurgence of AIDs, malaria or tuberculosis caused by coronavirus stealing the headlines?

Or the widespread famines - described in the Guardian as of 'Biblical proportions' - because of the failed economies?

I think some people need to get real.
 
I think some people need to get real.

Maybe some people do.

The quoted bit in your post is not relevant to what you have written. It is a different argument.

Loss of the vulnerable to maintain the economy.

A somewhat dystopian argument which is not acceptable to me. It is to you. That's fine.


As I have said before, this is not a dichotomy and control of covid19 is also dependent on treatment of the vulnerable in those places where they can be treated as is the maintenance of the economy.

I am not going to ask you about which economies have failed since and due to coronavirus 19 which weren't already failing. I will say that TB is resurgent as are famine and HIV, independent of Covid19. Again, we are looking at a different situation with AIDS and late stage TB 'cos you can't treat the major vulnerable effectively in hospital when you think Covid19 is there.

A balance must be made post exponential growth phase. I think it will be in the West ( including USA). I think Africa and some parts of Asia will not achieve this balance and will have a bad time, possibly mediated by a younger population structure.

As for 2nd wave. We wait.
 
A balance must be made post exponential growth phase.

What do you mean exactly by 'balance'? Do you mean a balance of covid lives lost versus the economy?

Is there a model which shows deaths caused by lockdowns and economic damage available? I've seen one oncologist claim that 60,000 cancer patients are at risk due to the coronavirus stealing the headlines. We already lose close to 500 people to cancer every-single-day.

But it's probably far more than just cancer patients.
 
The counting of cases and deaths seems to be a stick a finger in the bucket and see what comes out.
UK just "lost" 5,000 deaths by saying they'll only count those who died within 28 days of catching CV. One way to cut the numbers down, I suppose.

Cases rising significantly in Spain, but are they? Back to thousands each day but now the number of tests are approaching 50,000 a day it's no wonder. Still getting the mantra that 80% are "asymptomatic" and showing no signs so wouldn't even have been counted a few weeks ago. UK new cases over the past 14 days is under 20 per 100,000 whereas in Spain as a whole it is around 100 cases per 100,000 in the same period. On the other hand, in the same two week, the death rate in UK is 1.1 per 100,000 yet Spain is 0.3 per 100,000.
(It should be pointed out that over 80% of the new cases are in Catalonia, Aragon and Madrid in the north although cases are going up everywhere)

Spain counts 329,754 who have caught the CV19, a figure which is agreed by the WHO. However, Worldometer puts the number of cases at 376,864 which is almost 50,000 more yet deaths on all sources tally.

Latest wheeze (you'll see what I did there) is that regions are now banning smoking outdoors unless you can maintain an "effective" distance (not specified) and on bar terraces.

Went into town to get my haircut today. 5 restaurants next to each other (1 Brit, 1 Indian, 2 Spanish and 1 Thai). Normally, August, you'd be lucky to get a seat in any of them at lunchtime. Today, 1 couple in the Brit restaurant, none in the Indian, about 8 people in the Spanish restaurants and just 2 couples in the Thai restaurant.
Gonna be some hardships after this is all over.
 
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The counting of cases and deaths seems to be a stick a finger in the bucket and see what comes out.
UK just "lost" 5,000 deaths by saying they'll only count those who died within 28 days of catching CV. One way to cut the numbers down, I suppose.

Prior, if they died - for example - in a car crash after having been tested for Covid-19, they'd have counted as a covid death.
 
I guess its not 'just a cold'

"Major new study suggests 1.2% of all infected patients die based on 3.4million cases in England"


Rhinovirus (the common cold) can be a killer for immunocompromised children. Unlike this coronavirus which has killed less than 20 people under the age of 19 years old (16 I think is the exact number).

Unlike swineflu which killed 70 children.
 
The counting of cases and deaths seems to be a stick a finger in the bucket and see what comes out.
UK just "lost" 5,000 deaths by saying they'll only count those who died within 28 days of catching CV. One way to cut the numbers down, I suppose.
Wales & NI have used the 28 day rule from the onset. England is just standardising. Under the old regime no one could ever recover from CV19 as even if you were hit by a bus a year after testing +ve it'd still be recorded as a CV19 death.
 
Loss of the vulnerable to maintain the economy.

A somewhat dystopian argument which is not acceptable to me. It is to you. That's fine.

The elderly and vulnerable die all the time due to a variety of illnesses and have done so for years. The only reason we are where we are today is because suddenly the population under 60 believe they may be affected.

Pretty damn selfish attitude if you ask me.



Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk
 
Went into town to get my haircut today. 5 restaurants next to each other (1 Brit, 1 Indian, 2 Spanish and 1 Thai). Normally, August, you'd be lucky to get a seat in any of them at lunchtime. Today, 1 couple in the Brit restaurant, none in the Indian, about 8 people in the Spanish restaurants and just 2 couples in the Thai restaurant.
Gonna be some hardships after this is all over.

We went into Newport today; it's a bit rough - quite deprived - and the local hospital was hit hard during the coronavirus peak. The poor standard of public health there didn't help.

Anyway, there were a lot less facemasks than usual (they're not compulsory in Wales). I suspect the current hot weather has something to do with it. As a guesstimate, I reckon 1 in 30 people were wearing them in the shops.

If facemasks prevent the spread, I'd expect Wales to be hit harder than places in England.
 
Mush_lad took his girlfriend to Skegness at the weekend - I know, I know maybe he just her to dump him - The place and the beaches were packed, he estimated less than 10% mask wearing in shops, amusement arcades etc.

He was most amused by the member of staff who came out and announced to the pub beer garden:

"Will all the customers who are smoking weed please move away from the childrens play area towards the side of the garden or else I'll have to call security to make you"

Which was roundly responded to with a chorus of "Go **** yourself"
 

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