MERS Coronavirus warning

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
India 2 million cases but considered to be months from peak yet.
Regarding India I would be a bit more optimistic since the rates of increase are far from the exponential levels that would be expected if it was still at the beginning of the epidemic. I know that Delhi and Mumbai are now well past peaks and I suspect similar for other major cities. It's a nation of many thousands of small towns and villages and no way will they be able to carry out rigorous testing. I suspect it is much more advanced than officials realise.
 

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One thing I've properly noticed with all this COVID-19 lark is that people are using the pandemic as an excuse to be absolute arrseholes towards our fellow humans while claiming it to be justified by "Just being careful"
 
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One thing I've properly noticed with all this COVID-19 lark is that people are using the pandemic as an excuse to be absolute arrseholes towards our fellows while claiming it to be justified by "Just being careful"
It is, at times, becoming an excuse for poor customer service. When the issue in question has got sod all to do with the pandemic.
A bit like Dad's Army, "there's a war on you know!"
 
So people can catch a disease which is so mild a huge proportion of which don't even know they've got it?

It's not a very good pandemic.
Public health officials in Canada said that COVID-19 is less deadly than SARS on an individual level, but that this is what makes it kill more people in the population as a whole.

When SARS hit Canada, there were enough seriously ill people that the locations of outbreaks were impossible to miss. This meant they could track down and isolate the affected people very quickly. With COVID-19, it spreads more quietly, meaning that an outbreak can get well established before it is noticed. That means that far more people are affected and outbreaks are harder to stamp out using traditional public health track and trace methods.

If you have a disease which is very infectious but very mild, everyone will get it, but few if any will die.

If you have a disease which is very infectious and very deadly, then outbreaks tend to be very local and short lived because people die before they can spread it. Ebola is an example of this.

However, when you get a disease which is in between the two, that's when you can get a pandemic which kills a lot of people.

Everybody in public health was preparing for another SARS, which is why they were caught flat-footed by COVID-19.
 
You know there's a massive flaw with that overly simplistic calc, don't you?

Japan's similar; it has a large landmass, but much of it is mountains so people tend to live on the highly dense flat bits.

I'll also go with what a Swedish expert says on the matter:

"Dr Tegnell offers a collection of reasons: with its larger migrant populations and dense urban areas, Sweden is actually more similar to the Netherlands and the UK than it is to other Scandinavian countries"

Sweden has just 9 towns with a population bigger than 100,000,
its top 61 largest towns goes to what we would consider a village with 20,000 people
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
There was a joint paper report published on Friday from SAGE and ONS on impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity. The Daily Mail report summarises;

"Lockdown killed two people for every three that died of the coronavirus, shocking new government figures have revealed. It is thought that as many as 16,000 people died because they didn't get medical care between March 23 and May 1. In the same period, 25,000 Britons died of the virus."

The report justifies the estimated consequential deaths with the continued assertion that 400,000 COVID-19 deaths would have occurred without lockdown actions. It further identifies though that some 70 to 80 thousand consequential deaths will occur over the next 50 years.

Remember that the 400 thousand deaths predictions of Neil Ferguson was demonstrated to be wrong by March 19th, well before lockdown was announced. It seems quite clear that even the official reports are now showing the cure is worse than the disease.


 
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The head of Canada's largest book store chain has said that Canadians are unlikely to go shopping in stores except for specific items until there is vaccine available.
Shoppers will be reluctant to browse until there's a COVID-19 vaccine, Indigo CEO says
"I think our own view is that customers will continue well, well into the months ahead to make shopping an activity they do when they have something specific to buy," Heather Reisman said during a conference call with analysts. The company released its first-quarter financial results after markets closed Thursday.

Foot traffic is "still way down" for the book retailer, which shuttered all its stores to help stop the spread of the coronavirus and only reopened nearly all 182 of its locations by the end of its most recent quarter.
This will mean that consumers won't go back to normal consuming, where shopping is a form of entertainment rather than just a chore to be gotten through as quickly as possible, until a vaccine has been widely rolled out.
"So, that's saying that you've got a deliberate customer and we think that that's going to remain, frankly, until there's a vaccine."

In Canada, people watch the news and are afraid of the virus, she said.

"So, all in all, we predict that the retail consumer will remain a cautious consumer," she said.
 
While watching the daily Covid19 infection rates across different countries at;

Covid Trends

I noticed something odd. Apart from a few odd countries the major European countries do not seem to be able to get their infection rate below a particular level.

I took the weekly figure and to account for size I normalised it against population.

View attachment 495085



So what I think this shows is the base circulating infection rate which social measures do not seem to be able to affect.

The inter-country variation is not great and perhaps relates to the effectiveness of each country's measures.
The figures are going to be hard to compare between countries, as different countries are following different testing strategies. What is going to matter the most are:
  • Are the new cases mainly identifiable clusters, where they can trace where most people got if from, or are they just popping up randomly with no real pattern (community spread)?
  • Are hospitalizations rising, or are they remaining steady or declining?

Most of Europe, as well as Canada and Australia have daily new infection rates of a few hundred new cases per day. One of the exceptions is Spain, where things seem to be taking off again.

Here's an interesting map showing daily confirmed new cases per million population, on a 3 day rolling average. You can see where the hot spots are. Many parts of the third world of course are much worse than are shown due to limited testing, but you can see where the known problem areas are.
Screenshot_2020-08-07 Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million, 3-day rolling average.png



Here's Spain on a 7 day rolling average. The rising infection rate is why the Spanish are taking new measures to contain it. When comparing the latest data to the peak back in March however, keep in mind that testing today is much more widespread than it was then, so the situations are not directly comparable. It's the trend that matters though.
Screenshot_2020-08-07 Spain Coronavirus 361,442 Cases and 28,503 Deaths - Worldometer.png


Getting it down to zero will probably require a vaccine.

What we should be concerned about is that this is summer, which is the most favourable time of year for controlling infection, as we can spend time outdoors and ventilate extensively. The challenge is going to be getting through the winter.
 
There's an interesting situation in Canada revolving around a certain minority group who seem to be experiencing unusually high rates of COVID-19 infection. The press are tiptoeing around the subject so it's hard to find a news story which is willing to put their cards on the table and say what they mean instead of waffling about and telling people to show compassion and not discriminate against them. From the sounds of things they must be getting absolutely hammered for it to be making the news multiple times.

They're a group who refuse to integrate with the rest of society, who keep their own language, religious customs, and distinctive form of dress and don't associate with others outside their group.

You all know exactly whom I'm talking about. Yes, it's "low germans", which seems to be the new politically correct way of referring to them, as opposed to "Mennonites" as most people know them. There's also been vague mention of Doukhobors and Hutterites being hit as well, although I don't hear as much about them as unlike the Mennonites they don't live in my area.

They live in relatively sparsely inhabited rural areas, don't take public transit, don't deal with the general public on a frequent face to face basis, and don't have any of the usual high risk factors people associate with COVID-19. The problems seem to revolve around their lifestyle, where they engage in communal meals, regular religious gatherings, and inadequate social distancing. COVID-19 can spread rapidly in that sort of environment once it finds a way in, and so it has.

This may not be earth-shattering news, but it's an interesting situation to keep in mind when thinking about how COVID-19 spreads in different societies.
 
Sweden has just 9 towns with a population bigger than 100,000,
its top 61 largest towns goes to what we would consider a village with 20,000 people
Take a look at a density map of Sweden. The vast majority of it's population is concentrated in three major urban areas.

Similar to Japan in that there's vast swathes of lightly populated areas because people don't like living on the sides of mountains.
 
Seen a lot of talk here of India

they have the 3rd highest number of cases in the world (92nd in cases Per million)

They are 128th in the world with tests per million of population
 
With regards to aid for Africa, they already are after more. The same with South America. Canadian C-17s were just down there flying medical supplies around. There are predictions of mass starvation and that there will soon be hordes headed towards the US border.
Kind of what happens when you think short term and shut down an economy.
 
There's an interesting situation in Canada revolving around a certain minority group who seem to be experiencing unusually high rates of COVID-19 infection. The press are tiptoeing around the subject so it's hard to find a news story which is willing to put their cards on the table and say what they mean instead of waffling about and telling people to show compassion and not discriminate against them. From the sounds of things they must be getting absolutely hammered for it to be making the news multiple times.

They're a group who refuse to integrate with the rest of society, who keep their own language, religious customs, and distinctive form of dress and don't associate with others outside their group.

You all know exactly whom I'm talking about. Yes, it's "low germans", which seems to be the new politically correct way of referring to them, as opposed to "Mennonites" as most people know them. There's also been vague mention of Doukhobors and Hutterites being hit as well, although I don't hear as much about them as unlike the Mennonites they don't live in my area.

They live in relatively sparsely inhabited rural areas, don't take public transit, don't deal with the general public on a frequent face to face basis, and don't have any of the usual high risk factors people associate with COVID-19. The problems seem to revolve around their lifestyle, where they engage in communal meals, regular religious gatherings, and inadequate social distancing. COVID-19 can spread rapidly in that sort of environment once it finds a way in, and so it has.

This may not be earth-shattering news, but it's an interesting situation to keep in mind when thinking about how COVID-19 spreads in different societies.
Hence my earlier post about the undocumented spread in Africa. I do believe however, that societies like the Mennonites and African countries will likely develop herd immunity before most of the rest who are hiding under the bed hoping the big bad bug will go away.
 

doc80905

War Hero
There was a joint paper report published on Friday from SAGE and ONS on impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity. The Daily Mail report summarises;

"Lockdown killed two people for every three that died of the coronavirus, shocking new government figures have revealed. It is thought that as many as 16,000 people died because they didn't get medical care between March 23 and May 1. In the same period, 25,000 Britons died of the virus."
A security guard who works in my mates place (SEC in Glasgow) died of a heart attack, alone in his flat at the start of lockdown because he didn't want to trouble the NHS. I have two female friends, both under 40 who have had serious cancer scares in the past and whose smear tests have been cancelled due to lockdown. One of my mates is a mental health nurse in a rather large local hospital, the wards are rammed (busiest part of the hospital actually). Unemployment figures I noticed just the other day are at I think 7.5%, so double what they were previously, and that is just the start.

There's a harsh wind coming, could we hit 30% unemployment, 40%..? It's amusing in a way to see certain online commentators seemingly desperate to get us "back into lockdown", if we hit major unemployment figures like that, with the private sector in the UK eviscerated, just who is going to pay for it? Will the police who some are desperate to "robustly" enforce another lockdown going to work for free?

This virus is here to stay. Wait for a vaccine they say but you could be waiting for the rest of your life for that. Time to man up and crack on with things I feel. The UK is teetering on the brink of both bankruptcy and anarchy, can I have 2019 back please? What a crap year... :|
 

Niamac

GCM
Getting it down to zero will probably require a vaccine.
That's really the point I was trying to make. Even Finland and Scotland, both of which have recently recorded very low rates of infection, have had periodic spikes. The question in RUK is whether it will be possible to continue as is and deal with spikes or will the residual circulating virus seize the opportunity when schools open. The Scottish figures should give us an insight shortly.

 
Take a look at a density map of Sweden. The vast majority of it's population is concentrated in three major urban areas.

Similar to Japan in that there's vast swathes of lightly populated areas because people don't like living on the sides of mountains.
so basically, Sweden is actually more like Scotland than England.

time to compare neeps and krispbrot.
 

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