MERS Coronavirus warning

Sure, but as has been pointed out, the Swedish approach was more effective than the UK's and they didn't lockdown.

Hand washing, social distancing, no mass gatherings, definitely no indoor mass gatherings might be enough to flatten the curve.

Add in a lockdown for the most vulnerable and we may have been able to save lives and keep the economy going to some extent.

Rather than a blanket lockdown which will also bring deaths.
so, you are comparing a country with a very low population density and a culture that distances itself in a much bigger personal space than most countries, with the most densely populated country in Europe, with areas with Some of the highest population densities in the world, with no culture of socially distancing.
 
so, you are comparing a country with a very low population density and a culture that distances itself in a much bigger personal space than most countries, with the most densely populated country in Europe, with areas with Some of the highest population densities in the world, with no culture of socially distancing.
You're making stuff up. Swedes are making a conscious effort to socially distance, just like the British are.

It's almost like you're inferring that the Swedes keep themselves physically distant from other people regardless of the corona'.

Have you any evidence for this?

As for Sweden's population density:

Anders Tegnell reckons:

"Dr Tegnell offers a collection of reasons: with its larger migrant populations and dense urban areas, Sweden is actually more similar to the Netherlands and the UK than it is to other Scandinavian countries".
 
The head of public health in Canada, Dr. Theresa Tam, said that even with a vaccine the pandemic will have to be "managed" for at least another year, and that they are making contingency plans for two to three years. The issues are we don't know how effective a vaccine will be, and we don't know if it will actually prevent infection or whether it will just make the illness less severe.
Physical distancing, mask-wearing could be in place for 2-3 years even with vaccine, Tam warns
Dr. Theresa Tam used her briefing on Tuesday in Ottawa to temper expectations about the speed and effectiveness of a vaccine. She reiterated the importance of physical distancing, proper hand hygiene and mask-wearing, and attempted to dissuade any notion that a vaccine will make life go back to the way it was in a couple of months.

"We can't at this stage just put all of our focus [on a vaccine] in the hopes that this is the silver bullet solution," said Tam.

"We're going to have to manage this pandemic certainly over the next year, but certainly [we are] planning for the longer term of the next two to three years during which the vaccine may play a role but we don't know yet."

Tam said it's unclear at this stage how effective a vaccine will be. She said key questions remain about the degree and duration of immunity a vaccine will provide, the dosage that will be needed and whether it will prevent people from getting infected altogether or simply prevent severe illness requiring hospitalization.
Even if and when a vaccine is tested and deemed safe to use, it will take time to manufacture and distribute it. There likely won't be enough to go around for everyone to get vaccinated right away, so things like physical distancing and limiting crowd sizes could be around for several years.
Tam warned that even once a vaccine is tested and deemed to be both safe and effective, there will be challenges with distributing it widely to those who need it.

"It's likely that there won't be enough vaccines for the population," said Tam. "So there'll be prioritization and we're looking at that."
(...)

Despite that, she said public health officials are planning for a scenario in which measures that have been put in place thus far, including physical distancing to limiting crowd sizes, could be required for at least the next several years.

"[A vaccine] is one important layer of protection," said Tam. "It is a very important solution if we get a safe and effective vaccine, but I would say that the public health measures that we have in place — the sort of personal, daily measures that we take — is going to have to continue."
 

Niamac

GCM
While watching the daily Covid19 infection rates across different countries at;

Covid Trends

I noticed something odd. Apart from a few odd countries the major European countries do not seem to be able to get their infection rate below a particular level.

I took the weekly figure and to account for size I normalised it against population.

1596742171522.png




So what I think this shows is the base circulating infection rate which social measures do not seem to be able to affect.

The inter-country variation is not great and perhaps relates to the effectiveness of each country's measures.
 
While watching the daily Covid19 infection rates across different countries at;

Covid Trends

I noticed something odd. Apart from a few odd countries the major European countries do not seem to be able to get their infection rate below a particular level.

I took the weekly figure and to account for size I normalised it against population.

View attachment 495085



So what I think this shows is the base circulating infection rate which social measures do not seem to be able to affect.

The inter-country variation is not great and perhaps relates to the effectiveness of each country's measures.
Could be because the testing and identification of the virus has increased rapidly in those countries?
Spain, for example, is doing 46,000 odd tests a day now and have carried out random tests on nearly 30,000 families. The huge increase in cases (yesterday about 1700) has been at a daily rate some 8 times that of the whole of June. Deaths, however, are between 3 and 6 daily (yesterday was 1) even though there was a spike at the beginning of the week when 26 were recorded as deaths from the virus. Mind you, they've stopped taking figures over the weekend due to data being difficult to collect so those 26 recorded on Tuesday were actually the totals for Sat, Sun and Mon.

Min of Health on TV today still maintaining they are family or work related, not community, and 80% of the positives were asymptomatic. More testing, more postives.
 
Not sure what Ireland’s weekly cases is per 100,000 but we have seen major jumps in the last week (from an extremely low base).

from what is being reported it would appear that in many cases they are localised especially in a number of Meat factories, building sites and direct provision (asylum centres). The direct provision are also associated with the meat factories
 
Meanwhile, in Spain, whilst cases are rising as in the previous post, things appear to be almost back to normal.
Yes, wearing facemasks everywhere in this heat is a bugbear but they seem to be getting natural. Went to a shopping mall and thought the masks would really get to me but, after about 10 minutes, I seem to have forgotten I had it on. #

Our neighbours arrived from UK today (Manchester) to check on his house. He remarked it seemed normal here unlike Manchester. Lots of people around , social distancing and facemask wearing accepted. People back in work even the civil servants. They have introduced an ID card for Brits to prepare for Brexit which states their rights are guaranteed under the withdrawal agreement. Apart from limiting the number of people in the office to 2 at a time, they are working hard on getting the processing done.

I do feel a bit sorry for the shop workers who have to have these masks on all the time, though. New study (well, doing studies on things to do with the virus must be the fasted growing business at the moment) says you should only wear a mask for up to an hour otherwise the problems start. Bit awkward for those in supermarkets or other shops which have customers in all the time.

The CV bit seems to have been shoved down into second place at the moment and replaced by the old King (Juan Carlos who abdicated in June 2014. He was excellent at the beginning and put Spain back into Democracy after Franco. He even stood up to the Guardia Civil when they tried to mount another coup. Hailed as the saviour of the nation back then.

He then got caught shooting a couple of elephants in Africa, the press claiming he had 50 or so affairs (depending on the paper it could be 100) and now, shock -horror) taking a bung of 100 million dollars from the Saudis to get a railway built (what is it with Royals and Saudis?) His son, Felipe VI, and the Queen Letizia have been excellent ambassadors for Spain and they are refusing to take any money left by his Dad. All happiness on the Republicans front who are now demanding a dissolution of the Monarchy and a debate on whether Felipe should abdicate.

Juan Carlos is variously reported to be in Portugal, Monaco, the Dominican Republic and Switzerland. Seems he has done a runner but his missus, Emeritus Queen Sofia of Greece, has stayed in Spain splitting her time in Mallorca and Madrid. She's getting all the sympathy but Juan Carlos is being vilified in every newspaper, regardless of their leanings.

Economy appears to be getting wrecked with the lack of tourists and holiday home owners. Normally, at this time of the year, the place is leaping . There are 180 properties on the community I live and only about 60 or so permanent residents. The rest are holiday home owners or villa renters and it's quite difficult to get a decent restaurant without booking. This year, only about 3 or 4 houses occupied per week and you can walk into a restaurant and get seated straight away. Several of them have closed down permanently and have for sale or for rent signs up, even the ones that were doing well before this CV kicked off.

I know they are saying UK (and other countries) will see a drop in GDP of about 14% (some lower, some higher) but the Alicante province, which relies a lot on tourism at this time of year, has a 22% drop in GDP in the first 6 months of the year. The imposed quarantine by the UK on travellers from UK has hit hard but other countries are jumping in on it and about 10 countries are now advising against travel from various hard hit regions.

The only upturn is that employment in the province has increased a lot since May and June which is odd with the downturn in the tourist industry. The ERTE (Spanish version of furlough in UK) has been extended to the end of September and their system ensures that those on ERTE cannot be sacked once the period ends or the companies have to reimburse the local governments for the payment that has been made. Big chains, like El Corte Ingles and Media Markt, paid the difference of the ERTE which was 70% of wages and the 100% full pay. They have now taken back all their staff (since mid July).

Twice daily flights from UK and other countries have been reduced to twice weekly and even those flights can be cancelled at the last minute. The neighbour from Manchester said he had Ryanair cancel on him and booked Easyjet who also cancelled but offered him a flight a day earlier and said they were only operating 2 flights that week. He also said the flight was only about a quarter full so, as posted on other threads, I'm not sure how many of these budget airlines will manage to survive.
 
Min of Health on TV today still maintaining they are family or work related, not community, and 80% of the positives were asymptomatic. More testing, more postives.
80% asymptomatic?

I take it this is people who've caught the corona and they were in the very early stages of the illness?
 
A friends son, mid-late 30's, no health problems posted this yesterday during a discussion

"Personally I ended up with a blood clot in my lungs as a result of covid and so far a 3 night stay in hospital, 1 GP consultation, I outpatient appt, 1 x-ray, 2 CT with contrast scans, 1 echocardiagram, numerous blood tests, 3 months on expensive anticoagulants, etc all as a result of covid.

The idea that this is no more than a flu, has a very low death rate and only kills very old folk is at best only part of the wider picture. Folk need to waken up to the wider health ramifications of this virus."
 
80% asymptomatic?

I take it this is people who've caught the corona and they were in the very early stages of the illness?
An asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed case is a person infected with COVID-19 who does not develop symptoms.
So people who have it (or have had it) but aren't affected by it.
For example, when a pub customer developed the disease a couple of weeks ago, they traced all those who had been there that day and tested them. I think it was about 20 to 30 who they found were infected but only a couple of them actually showed any symptoms. The rest were completely unaware.

Doesn't mean they were in the very early stages, could have been a while back when they had it but, because of no symptoms, didn't know. Seems that's the way it affects the majority.
 
An asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed case is a person infected with COVID-19 who does not develop symptoms.
So people who have it (or have had it) but aren't affected by it.
For example, when a pub customer developed the disease a couple of weeks ago, they traced all those who had been there that day and tested them. I think it was about 20 to 30 who they found were infected but only a couple of them actually showed any symptoms. The rest were completely unaware.

Doesn't mean they were in the very early stages, could have been a while back when they had it but, because of no symptoms, didn't know. Seems that's the way it affects the majority.
So people can catch a disease which is so mild a huge proportion of which don't even know they've got it?

It's not a very good pandemic.
 
So people can catch a disease which is so mild a huge proportion of which don't even know they've got it?

It's not a very good pandemic.
Counter argument being it’s a very damaging pandemic for that very reason.

it can make some Fit and heathy People critically ill and it can kill those with underlying issues
 
Counter argument being it’s a very damaging pandemic for that very reason.

it can make some Fit and heathy People critically ill and it can kill those with underlying issues
Yeh, you always get outliers. And even the common cold can kill some people.

 
You're making stuff up. Swedes are making a conscious effort to socially distance, just like the British are.

It's almost like you're inferring that the Swedes keep themselves physically distant from other people regardless of the corona'.

Have you any evidence for this?

As for Sweden's population density:

Anders Tegnell reckons:

"Dr Tegnell offers a collection of reasons: with its larger migrant populations and dense urban areas, Sweden is actually more similar to the Netherlands and the UK than it is to other Scandinavian countries".
“How do Swedes sense personal space?

Therese Nyström
, lives in Sweden
Answered September 19, 2019·Author has 64answers and 69.9Kanswer views

Swedish people have a larger area that they perceive as their personal space than people from other countries. Standing at arms length is comfortable enough if talking to someone you don't know very well, but with strangers in public spaces we would prefer more of a distance if possible.
And in regards to the previous answer, there is a distance that is considered too close in regards to a queue for a Swedish person, but that distance is relative to how much space there is in total within the given parameter for the queue and how many other people are standing in the same queue. So if you stand behind someone at the grocery store or the bank in Sweden and they turn around to give you the side eye or a quick glare, chances are you have broken the social code and encroached too far into that persons personal space and should probably attempt to back off by at least half a step if possible.”
 
“How do Swedes sense personal space?

Therese Nyström
, lives in Sweden
Answered September 19, 2019·Author has 64answers and 69.9Kanswer views

Swedish people have a larger area that they perceive as their personal space than people from other countries. Standing at arms length is comfortable enough if talking to someone you don't know very well, but with strangers in public spaces we would prefer more of a distance if possible.
And in regards to the previous answer, there is a distance that is considered too close in regards to a queue for a Swedish person, but that distance is relative to how much space there is in total within the given parameter for the queue and how many other people are standing in the same queue. So if you stand behind someone at the grocery store or the bank in Sweden and they turn around to give you the side eye or a quick glare, chances are you have broken the social code and encroached too far into that persons personal space and should probably attempt to back off by at least half a step if possible.”
Christ, you've done some googling to come up with that one blokes opinion.

But I think you'll find that the Swedes are just like anyone else from Europe.

Which is why they were given social distancing advice.
 
Population density

Sweden: 25 / km2

England: 275 / km2
You know there's a massive flaw with that overly simplistic calc, don't you?

Japan's similar; it has a large landmass, but much of it is mountains so people tend to live on the highly dense flat bits.

I'll also go with what a Swedish expert says on the matter:

"Dr Tegnell offers a collection of reasons: with its larger migrant populations and dense urban areas, Sweden is actually more similar to the Netherlands and the UK than it is to other Scandinavian countries"

 

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