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MERS Coronavirus warning

Well they weren't wrong. I can't go into detail on here, but the virus was absolutely present in Scotland in January and February. December now being looked at.

Wor Lass reckons she had it in late Feb. She spent a few nights coughing her guts up; a dry cough and felt so unwell that she couldn't run (she has to be almost terminal not to run; she runs ultramarathons that are quite extreme even by ultra marathon standards). It was a fortnight before she was fully right.

The coughing was the worst part; highly annoying when I was trying to get to sleep.

I probably had it too, but I'm a winter-t-shirt-wearing-Geordie, so never really noticed.
 
Wor Lass reckons she had it in late Feb. She spent a few nights coughing her guts up; a dry cough and felt so unwell that she couldn't run (she has to be almost terminal not to run; she runs ultramarathons that are quite extreme even by ultra marathon standards). It was a fortnight before she was fully right.

The coughing was the worst part; highly annoying when I was trying to get to sleep.

I probably had it too, but I'm a winter-t-shirt-wearing-Geordie, so never really noticed.
Nobody knows for certain unless they've had a positive test, or an antibody test. Besides, it's killed well over a thousand winter T-shirt wearing Geordies.
 
Have a look at the link I provided, m8. Also , please bear in mind that I am being very careful what I post here because in my mind, I want to keep this thread relatively factual.

These figures are based on infected hospitalised and infected non hospitalised but recovered. They are not estimates but based on recent patients.

Only a tiny minority of people with corvid end up in hospital. For the vast majority it's a very minor illness.

From a large study done in Germany:

 
In theory, you can be immune to a different strain but you might not be. This is another don't know. Regional spikes . Who knows. We don't have information but I think your questions were rhetorical anyway.
They were indeed rhetorical. There is something to be said for not using a ? for a rhetorical question.

Another (rhetorical) question: does the virus lay dormant similarly to the way VZV does?
 
Only a tiny minority of people with corvid end up in hospital. For the vast majority it's a very minor illness.

From a large study done in Germany:



Which must be nice for the small percentage of the typical adult Western population with no underlying health issues.
 
Which must be nice for the small percentage of the typical adult Western population with no underlying health issues.

UK corvid deaths under the age of 40 years old are less than 250. This figure may have crept up since I read it, but it won't be far out. We've had 16 children (under the age of 19 years old) die of corvid, compared to 70 child deaths with swine flu.

A quarter of all corvid deaths in the UK have Alzheimers or dementia as one (or more) of their underlying health conditions.

Keep it real, as Ali G would say.
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
The curve has been flattened in all countries regardless of the type of lockdown or non-lockdown.

View attachment 494491
As I am interested in the comparison I have pulled up the raw numbers and dates then rebased them to deaths per million. I have taken the data from ourworldindata. The Sweden approach was likely more effective than the UK.
 

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The curve has been flattened in all countries regardless of the type of lockdown or non-lockdown.

The curve flattens according to growth curve mathematics as the first sweep through a population infects people, some of which it kills.

The point here is that more people in the UK would have been killed if controls were not established. The curve would stiill have flattened though, yes. Just more people dead because more vulnerable people would be killed.

This is the point .
 
Only a tiny minority of people with corvid end up in hospital. For the vast majority it's a very minor illness.

Your source was from May. We learn new things every day.


Post 13525 as per @Koschei Please look at the paper he quoted. A significant number of low symptom non hospitalised people are getting compromised organ function including the heart.

It is a lottery as to who gets myocardium dysfunction as that is what it is. In other words, an increased liability of a future heart attack or evidence of a symptomless heart attack but compromising heart function.
 
UK corvid deaths under the age of 40 years old are less than 250. This figure may have crept up since I read it, but it won't be far out. We've had 16 children (under the age of 19 years old) die of corvid, compared to 70 child deaths with swine flu.

A quarter of all corvid deaths in the UK have Alzheimers or dementia as one (or more) of their underlying health conditions.

Keep it real, as Ali G would say.
Yes, it's crept up from "less than 250" to 560 - a mere 100% increase.

And it's interesting that you continue to believe that there is no middle ground between being asymptomatic and dead.
 
UK corvid deaths under the age of 40 years old are less than 250. This figure may have crept up since I read it, but it won't be far out. We've had 16 children (under the age of 19 years old) die of corvid, compared to 70 child deaths with swine flu.

A quarter of all corvid deaths in the UK have Alzheimers or dementia as one (or more) of their underlying health conditions.

Keep it real, as Ali G would say.


What a bugger the median age for the UK is 40
 
As I am interested in the comparison I have pulled up the raw numbers and dates then rebased them to deaths per million. I have taken the data from ourworldindata. The Sweden approach was likely more effective than the UK.
I'm not going to get into an argument about how well the UK has done, but the issue of Sweden has been covered on this thread multiple times.

Sweden did a partial lockdown, it was just a very ineffectual one.

Their death rate is 5 to 10 times worse than that of their neighbours. Meanwhile their economy was as bad or worse.

The Swedish public health official who was behind the policy and whose name has been mentioned so many times has since admitted that Sweden got it wrong.
 
The following is a poll asking Canadians about what sort of travel they would be willing to engage it without a vaccine being available.
Fewer than a third of Canadians willing to travel without a COVID-19 vaccine, says new poll
  • Fewer than a third of Canadians said they would be willing to fly anywhere.
  • Only 17% would be willing to fly to the US.
  • 35% nationally would be willing to take a ferry.
  • Nearly half in BC or the Atlantic provinces would be willing to take a ferry.
  • 13% were willing to take a cruise.
With regards to cruises, I'm surprised the number is that high.
 
The US state of Hawaii will be accepting tourists without requiring a quarantine starting the 1st of September.
Hawaii set to welcome Canadians without quarantine restrictions starting Sept. 1

Until now they have been requiring a 14 day quarantine upon arrival. This will be dropped, provided the traveller can show proof on arrival of a negative COVID-19 test taken within 72 hours of boarding. Without such proof, travellers will be subject to quarantine requirements.

Hawaii has had relatively low rates of infection by American standards, with 2,111 confirmed cases and 26 deaths. The state has a population of 1.4 million.
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
The Swedish public health official who was behind the policy and whose name has been mentioned so many times has since admitted that Sweden got it wrong.

I think you will find he said that they got wrong the protection of old people in care homes. He does not consider the population distribution of Sweden to be comparable of their Nordic neighbours.


"After all these months, does he now think that his strategy is a failure or a success? A bit of both, he says quickly, but emphasises more of the latter:

“I think to a great extent it’s been a success. We are now seeing rapidly falling cases, we have continuously had healthcare that has been working, there have been free beds at any given time, never any crowding in the hospitals, we have been able to keep schools open which we think is extremely important, and society fairly open — while still having social distancing in place in a way that means that the spread of the disease has been limited."

Edit to add comment on economy - I think your data is not up to date. Google FT article "Swedish companies reap benefits of countries Covid-19 approach"

"Economists and central banks forecast that Sweden’s GDP this year should decline by about 5 per cent, broadly in line with Norway and Denmark and far better than the likes of Italy, the UK or France. "
 
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The US state of Hawaii will be accepting tourists without requiring a quarantine starting the 1st of September.
Hawaii set to welcome Canadians without quarantine restrictions starting Sept. 1

Until now they have been requiring a 14 day quarantine upon arrival. This will be dropped, provided the traveller can show proof on arrival of a negative COVID-19 test taken within 72 hours of boarding. Without such proof, travellers will be subject to quarantine requirements.

Hawaii has had relatively low rates of infection by American standards, with 2,111 confirmed cases and 26 deaths. The state has a population of 1.4 million.
Can they get back again?
 
The curve flattens according to growth curve mathematics as the first sweep through a population infects people, some of which it kills.

The point here is that more people in the UK would have been killed if controls were not established. The curve would stiill have flattened though, yes. Just more people dead because more vulnerable people would be killed.

This is the point .

Sure, but as has been pointed out, the Swedish approach was more effective than the UK's and they didn't lockdown.

Hand washing, social distancing, no mass gatherings, definitely no indoor mass gatherings might be enough to flatten the curve.

Add in a lockdown for the most vulnerable and we may have been able to save lives and keep the economy going to some extent.

Rather than a blanket lockdown which will also bring deaths.
 

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