MERS Coronavirus warning

Have you a link? And is the 20% based on tested numbers or estimated infected totals?
Have a look at the link I provided, m8. Also , please bear in mind that I am being very careful what I post here because in my mind, I want to keep this thread relatively factual.

These figures are based on infected hospitalised and infected non hospitalised but recovered. They are not estimates but based on recent patients.
 
Some UK care homes did very well. They didn't use bank staff and they had live in carers.

Creating effective bubbles around care homes has to be easier than creating effective bubbles around populations.

People are like cats; Anders Tegnel reckons no nation has ever kept a virus out.
The last sentence sums up what I said about bubbling not being effective in the medium to long term.
 
It's still a minor illness for the vast majority of people; so minor many don't know they have it.
Again, we do not know.*

If 20% are going to show long term effects, that has to be taken into account.

I agree that blanket lock downs are no longer the way to go but:

1] Low scale and local lockdowns depend on compliance. This is not always seen.
2] Low scale and local lockdowns depend on testing. These are only now being developed adequately.

* We do not know at the statistical level although we will do soon as the non hospitalised recovered increase in number and elements of chance alone factors are removed from calculations.
 

Fang_Farrier

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Some UK care homes did very well. They didn't use bank staff and they had live in carers.

Creating effective bubbles around care homes has to be easier than creating effective bubbles around populations.

People are like cats; Anders Tegnel reckons no nation has ever kept a virus out.
The difficulty there is finding a sufficient number of care staff who are willing to isolate themselves in the care home with the residents.

To me, that is just not feasible, thus you will always have staff transitioning between the care home and the community as they go about their daily lives. Shopping, caring for their own children and families.
 
Some UK care homes did very well. They didn't use bank staff and they had live in carers.

Creating effective bubbles around care homes has to be easier than creating effective bubbles around populations.

People are like cats; Anders Tegnel reckons no nation has ever kept a virus out.

Some had asked staff to become live in carers, but it was a huge ask and impossible for 99% of care homes.
Most care staff have family responsibilities - asking them to isolate 100% from their families for 20 weeks was extremely difficult on the staff, and their families
 
Again, we do not know.*

If 20% are going to show long term effects, that has to be taken into account.

I agree that blanket lock downs are no longer the way to go but:

1] Low scale and local lockdowns depend on compliance. This is not always seen.
2] Low scale and local lockdowns depend on testing. These are only now being developed adequately.

* We do not know at the statistical level although we will do soon as the non hospitalised recovered increase in number and elements of chance alone factors are removed from calculations.
1)
This is one of the problems. There are always people who will refuse to comply because they either can't be bothered or will deliberately go out of their way to do the opposite of what they are told. For some people the rules don't apply to them and we have seen the evidence of this time after time. Witness lockdown parties, mass gatherings, illegal raves, playing football or cricket on the local green, people in and out of each other's houses et al. It's an attitude quite prevalent amongst the young and hard of thinking. Other people will initially comply with the best of intentions but will eventually succumb to lockdown fatigue. Some people can endure lockdown better than others.

2)
This is a key point. At the moment testing is restricted to certain classes of people - key workers such as hospital staff and care workers, and their families, and anyone reporting with symptoms. It's not available for anyone to just pitch up and have a test. This sort of testing would be a logistical nightmare and prohibitively expensive. Even if they could they could be tested negative one day and catch the virus the next day.

What we really need is a reliable antibody test that can be rolled out nationally. To the best of my knowledge the jury is still out whether someone who has had the virus is able to catch it again. Then there are the mutations. Does having had one strain of the virus protect you from a different strain doing the rounds? We know that there are at three main strains of the virus, basically Asian, European and American/Australian. It looks as if more strains are emerging, some more virulent than others. Could the regional spikes we are seeing be the result of more virulent mutations?
 
@Jimmy_Green

Very good post.

I would have said something similar but I am getting thread response fatigue with this because the Covid issue is going round in circles. Whatever one writes gets largely ignored by the people who believe what they want to believe.

To the best of my knowledge the jury is still out whether someone who has had the virus is able to catch it again.
From what is being published, it appears that people don't catch it again unless they are in some way immune compromised. I am waiting for a clearly defined case that shows someone who is completely healthy becoming infected AND symptomatic which is the mark of a really dangerous virus. Not seen one yet. But:

Then there are the mutations. Does having had one strain of the virus protect you from a different strain doing the rounds? We know that there are at three main strains of the virus, basically Asian, European and American/Australian. It looks as if more strains are emerging, some more virulent than others. Could the regional spikes we are seeing be the result of more virulent mutations?
In theory, you can be immune to a different strain but you might not be. This is another don't know. Regional spikes . Who knows. We don't have information but I think your questions were rhetorical anyway.

Brief anecdote:

Being my wife, my wife managed to push a cotton bud through her ear drum the other day. She has the habit of sticking a bud in either ear and walking round pretending to be a space alien. She forgot she had them in and managed to hit the left bud with a door jamb.

She went to the doctor today. He said that he would normally have sent her to the Ear , Nose and Throat department to sort it out but they were down on doctors/surgeons because a couple of them had died of Covid19. She has to go back next week for an examination and if it is the same or worse, he said he will sort a surgeon type out for her.

Remember folks, its just a cold!
 

Dafty duck

On ROPS
On ROPs
I seem to recall that when the Nike outbreak was being discussed, there was mention that they were fairly sure it had been contained as none of that variant was elsewhere.


In early June they were talking about over a hundred "family trees" of the virus in Scotland. Traced and identifiedby subtle genetic differences
Well they weren't wrong. I can't go into detail on here, but the virus was absolutely present in Scotland in January and February. December now being looked at.
 
The whole debate of coronavirus is going around in a circle on here, which isn't unusual, as it's happening other places also.
The thing that I cannot comprehend is the absolute fact, that had no measures been implemented the NHS would have been absolutely deluged, which would have surely put us in a much worse position. Granted, there is consequences to lockdown, had the death rate been in the hundreds of thousands because of no government intervention, the outrage would have been unimaginable. What's worse, losing jobs or losing life ?

Life is for all, including those in the twilight time of theirs.
 
Well they weren't wrong. I can't go into detail on here, but the virus was absolutely present in Scotland in January and February. December now being looked at.
A lot of people are saying it has been around for quite a while.

Are you able to go into more detail or is your knowledge a PERSEC or confidential issue?
 
A lot of people are saying it has been around for quite a while.

Are you able to go into more detail or is your knowledge a PERSEC or confidential issue?
I reckon it goes back as far as October, was probably circulating a good while before the Chinese acted on it.
 
The whole debate of coronavirus is going around in a circle on here, which isn't unusual, as it's happening other places also.
The thing that I cannot comprehend is the absolute fact, that had no measures been implemented the NHS would have been absolutely deluged, which would have surely put us in a much worse position. Granted, there is consequences to lockdown, had the death rate been in the hundreds of thousands because of no government intervention, the outrage would have been unimaginable. What's worse, losing jobs or losing life ?

Life is for all, including those in the twilight time of theirs.
A lot of the time, people mistake the success of a policy for the idea that nothing is happening. The policy to contain which was described as : "flattening the curve" was very successful. As a result of this, people think it would have happened anyway. Another one is to do with terrorist activity. People think that there is not a terrorist problem or it is not as bad as people think. They don't see all the work that is done behind the scenes.

Earlier on in the thread, I think I used the analogy of a duck swimming. It glides across the water, seemingly without effort. Underneath the water, the little bugger is paddling those little feet like... er . a duck .

We are not out of it yet.
 

Dafty duck

On ROPS
On ROPs
A lot of people are saying it has been around for quite a while.

Are you able to go into more detail or is your knowledge a PERSEC or confidential issue?
There was a look at sero-prevalence using blood samples which had been retained from January and February, the number of samples showing positive for COVID-19 antibodies was surprising. Can't say any more than that due to both PERSEC and confidentiality.
 
Well they weren't wrong. I can't go into detail on here, but the virus was absolutely present in Scotland in January and February. December now being looked at.
I posted about a hundred or more pages ago the both France and Italy have identified case from November and December.

A patient treated in a hospital near Paris on 27 December for suspected pneumonia actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.

This means the virus may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought.

Dr Yves Cohen said a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.
 
Should we not see that in the excess deaths though?
Dunno mate, every country seemingly has a different method of recording. Suppose each country needs to look back, if someone with underlying health issues died in October or November it won't be recorded as Covid related, which in reality it could have been.
 
Some had asked staff to become live in carers, but it was a huge ask and impossible for 99% of care homes.
Most care staff have family responsibilities - asking them to isolate 100% from their families for 20 weeks was extremely difficult on the staff, and their families
Pay them enough; they'll live-in. Like many did already.

It's got to be an easier - more practical - way of isolating at risk types than attempting to isolate a whole population.

Had Sweden protected it's care homes it would've been a massive success; a third of their deaths are care home deaths.
 

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