MERS Coronavirus warning

My post which you quoted discussed the risk of re-infection after you have been infected and then recovered. Current measures are based around preventing people from getting infected. Most studies seem to show that only about 5% of the population have been exposed in countries which have gone through the peak and then suppressed the spread of the infection so far.

The biggest concern at present is to prevent having so many people sick at one time that the health care system collapses, as happened in Italy and New York.

Over the longer term, they hope to develop a vaccine which will provide immunity, or at least enough immunity to cause the pandemic to fade away.

Spanish Flu killed tens of millions, but it hasn't been seen since despite there being no vaccine or cure. SARS was much more deadly than COVID-19, but it was successfully contained and apparently wiped out, despite there being no vaccine or cure.

It is quite conceivable that the virus could be eliminated in much of the world without a vaccine simply through public health measures, after which the problem will be to prevent it from being re-imported from countries where it is still prevalent. That may require the permanent use of quarantine of arrivals from outside of "safe" zones, which may cut into international travel, but is quite feasible in principle.

At present though, there are multiple different vaccines being developed, and the results for a number of them look promising.
The only way to eradicate it is to do what they used to do in Italy in the middle ages to contain the bubonic plague which was basically stick infected people or people they thought had been exposed to infected people on an island and leave them there to die. It worked.
 
The only way to eradicate it is to do what they used to do in Italy in the middle ages to contain the bubonic plague which was basically stick infected people or people they thought had been exposed to infected people on an island and leave them there to die. It worked.
Before vaccines many countries had an island they'd quarantine immigrants onto. Many of them never left the island.

Staten Island jumps to mind.
 
The only way to eradicate it is to do what they used to do in Italy in the middle ages to contain the bubonic plague which was basically stick infected people or people they thought had been exposed to infected people on an island and leave them there to die. It worked.
Perhaps the idea could be trialled on a pikey colony if they get infected, put Anthrax island back to use
 
The compulsory masks thing seems a bit daft right now:
The pathogen has (partly) gone through the population. It has carried off a proportion of those who are vulnerable. Many infected would also be asymptomatic but the general idea is that only about 10%* of the population have actually been infected.

It will turn around and come back in a second wave as a minimum as it sweeps back through those not previously infected and so cull the vulnerable who have missed it this time round or have subsequently become vulnerable. **

The face mask business is to cut down on the people who get infected in the second wave, either symptomless or otherwise as the symptomless can pass it on.

The reason we have not had the face masks in shops before now is likely a societal one rather than for public health reasons. It is three fold:

1] The British population is quite bolshy and needs to be prepared. It is now, so compliance is likely.
2] The main scientific opinion now revolves around the idea that face masks reduce transmission from the infected to the infectee. Up to now, that was not the case.
3] The British police need the compliance at 1] because they are not really geared either mentally or in terms of numbers to enforce compliance. It acts against the supportive and the indifferent who largely never come into police contact. Policeman really don't want this.

We are preparing for the inevitable but if prepared, there is a good possibility that we can reduce casualties.

* It is usually stated around 5% but 10% is a decent ball park figure.
** The assumption being that it is not mutating either in a bad way or a harmless way.
 
The only way to eradicate it is to do what they used to do in Italy in the middle ages to contain the bubonic plague which was basically stick infected people or people they thought had been exposed to infected people on an island and leave them there to die. It worked.

We have not got there yet.
 
Something is going to kill us eventually
And for half of the 20% of the 1% of cold cases that actually require hospitalization, it's going to be health care policy and personnel.
 
The compulsory masks thing seems a bit daft right now:

View attachment 489667
There is another way of looking at this. The masks only give marginal protection, but it is better than nothing. When the threat is high, the return from wearing masks is low, but when the threat is much lower, that seemingly narrow margin makes a lot of difference. As an analogy, when the main pipe is bust in your kitchen, there's not much point worrying about that leaky tap. However, once you have fixed the pipe and begun the repair work the leaky tap assumes more significance and needs to be fixed too.
 
Before vaccines many countries had an island they'd quarantine immigrants onto. Many of them never left the island.

Staten Island jumps to mind.
Grosse Ile, near Quebec City, was used as a quarantine island for immigrants from 1832 to 1937. Something like 4 million immigrants passed through it. It's now a historic site.

Thousands of dead were buried there, and that's not counting those who died before arrival and were buried at sea. A lot died during the Great Famine in Ireland, when loads of Irish, starving and sick with cholera or typhus, died in droves on ships to Canada or after arrival. The island supposedly has the largest burial ground for victims of the Irish Famine outside of Ireland.



 
Complete bollocks. It was horseshit last time you said it 2 weeks ago and it's horseshit now -
I would support this. My wife has been working constantly. I am also not sure where the idea comes from about sitting at home doing nothing . I have heard it a lot. She is doing normal stuff . The only difference is that there are less kids present ( about half) and they have to work in closed groups called bubbles.

Primary school.

Gold plated pension is now a myth for the younger ones.
 
...
An example of how this will be used is for example suppose a care home develops 10 cases of COVID-19. Genetic analysis could tell health officials whether this was the result of 1 case which spread between 10 residents, or whether it came into the home with multiple different visitors. Knowing which of these happened will help determine where infection control went wrong and so help prevent similar incidents in future.
...
NY ended up with the care home massacre by stuffing the SARS-CoV-2 infected patients into them... the perfect place for any infectious disease to take out the vulnerable. It came from liberal polices and decision-making. No need for a study there.
 

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NY ended up with the care home massacre by stuffing the SARS-CoV-2 infected patients into them... the perfect place for any infectious disease to take out the vulnerable. It came from liberal polices and decision-making. No need for a study there.
Every care home should have an infection control policy and procedures in place.

Should be prepared for the likes of influenza, norovirus and C. Diff.
 
The pathogen has (partly) gone through the population. It has carried off a proportion of those who are vulnerable. Many infected would also be asymptomatic but the general idea is that only about 10%* of the population have actually been infected.

It will turn around and come back in a second wave as a minimum as it sweeps back through those not previously infected and so cull the vulnerable who have missed it this time round or have subsequently become vulnerable. **

The face mask business is to cut down on the people who get infected in the second wave, either symptomless or otherwise as the symptomless can pass it on.

The reason we have not had the face masks in shops before now is likely a societal one rather than for public health reasons. It is three fold:

1] The British population is quite bolshy and needs to be prepared. It is now, so compliance is likely.
2] The main scientific opinion now revolves around the idea that face masks reduce transmission from the infected to the infectee. Up to now, that was not the case.
3] The British police need the compliance at 1] because they are not really geared either mentally or in terms of numbers to enforce compliance. It acts against the supportive and the indifferent who largely never come into police contact. Policeman really don't want this.

We are preparing for the inevitable but if prepared, there is a good possibility that we can reduce casualties.

* It is usually stated around 5% but 10% is a decent ball park figure.
** The assumption being that it is not mutating either in a bad way or a harmless way.
Big numbers. The ARRSE flat earth society are in denial But it’s always the way. Teachers working 18 hour days. NHS at breaking point. No one going to find themselves unemployed. The earth is at the centre of the universe and it’s flat.
 

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