MERS Coronavirus warning

If that was the case, why have Governments (globally) reacted to the extent that they have? It makes no sense.

All the evidence points to this being grim, by which I dont mean the end of man kind - I mean 10-20% population reduction.

I'm seeing someone in August who is seriously in the know. Cant spill the beans on who it is but I'll get a proper low-down and if I can, I'll post what I think is reasonable without compromising them
My post which you quoted discussed the risk of re-infection after you have been infected and then recovered. Current measures are based around preventing people from getting infected. Most studies seem to show that only about 5% of the population have been exposed in countries which have gone through the peak and then suppressed the spread of the infection so far.

The biggest concern at present is to prevent having so many people sick at one time that the health care system collapses, as happened in Italy and New York.

Over the longer term, they hope to develop a vaccine which will provide immunity, or at least enough immunity to cause the pandemic to fade away.

Spanish Flu killed tens of millions, but it hasn't been seen since despite there being no vaccine or cure. SARS was much more deadly than COVID-19, but it was successfully contained and apparently wiped out, despite there being no vaccine or cure.

It is quite conceivable that the virus could be eliminated in much of the world without a vaccine simply through public health measures, after which the problem will be to prevent it from being re-imported from countries where it is still prevalent. That may require the permanent use of quarantine of arrivals from outside of "safe" zones, which may cut into international travel, but is quite feasible in principle.

At present though, there are multiple different vaccines being developed, and the results for a number of them look promising.
 
Step-daughter who is a nurse was quite poorly in April and had two - three weeks off with severe flu-like symptoms, difficulty in breathing and loss of taste/smell. Had her antigen test results today: positive for Covid-19.

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We have the antibody test available but no one seems to have any idea as to how to use it! So far it's only being used in evaluation of a potential vaccine. Initial results are that it does indeed result in production of antibodies but it needs to be looked at longer term. You didn't hear that from me. And no, none of the volunteers have died or become deathly ill.
 
What evidence points to it being a 10-20% reduction in the world's population and over what sort of timescale?

10% of the world's population would be about 780,000,000.

And world wide reported deaths haven't even reached 1,000,000 yet.

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Having just listened to a COVID-19 expert panel, I would say that that figure is by no means unrealistic, far from it.
 
I thought Spanish Flu was H1N1, which has definitely been seen since.

As far as I know, it is. Generally they put an A before it, so A H1N1 is its descriptor.
The A probably relates to the sub variant of Influenza A.

The thing that would make it unique would be the proportion and arrangement of spike proteins and the ability/concentration of a cell release protein called neuramidase. It is , if you like, a version of H1N1.

Needs someone better qualified to comment.
 
What evidence points to it being a 10-20% reduction in the world's population and over what sort of timescale?

10% of the world's population would be about 780,000,000.

And world wide reported deaths haven't even reached 1,000,000 yet.



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Not bad for just sniffles.
 
Not really, though she's taken a long time to fully recover and gets tired easily.

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Anything that affects the lungs takes a long time to get right, hope she gets well soon.
 

crow_bag

Old-Salt
Having just listened to a COVID-19 expert panel, I would say that that figure is by no means unrealistic, far from it.
But over what time frame?

Considering that so far worldwide there have only been 575000 reported deaths world wide it might take us a while to reach 780,000,000 deaths.



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What evidence points to it being a 10-20% reduction in the world's population and over what sort of timescale?

10% of the world's population would be about 780,000,000.

And world wide reported deaths haven't even reached 1,000,000 yet.

if there is no vaccine, it will get you eventually was the hypothesis


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Anything that affects the lungs takes a long time to get right, hope she gets well soon.
Thank you!

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As a back of a fag packet type of calculation, you would have about 700,000,000people in the vulnerable age group and including people described as extremely vulnerable at category A, the immunosuppressed and so on.

If you throw into the mix things like the extremes of malnutrition, inherited predispositions and unknown factors making people liable to ARDS, it is quite reasonable to come up with the figure of 780 million deaths.

On the information presently in the public domain, it will be lower than this worst case scenario in developed nations due to good health care and living conditions lowering transmission rates.

At the moment in UK we have a reasonable attempt at reducing transmission and an improving ability to treat people in ICU and ventilation ( with retrovirals and steroid therapy).

The issue with the mega deaths lies around countries with poor health care and infrastructure, endemic disease and malnutrition lowering the bodies' attempts at an immune response. I would not like to be in some African countries, for example. On the other hand, the age structures of many third world populations are full of younger people who do not seem affected as much.

780 million is a worst case scenario. I would like to say it is a worst case scenario if we do nothing but my fag packet calculations do not have access to the information presented to @History_Man .
 
At the moment in UK we have a reasonable attempt at reducing transmission and an improving ability to treat people in ICU and ventilation ( with retrovirals and steroid therapy).
I've read ICUs are at 15% capacity and nurses are bored.

Whatever happened to 'flattening the curve to save the NHS'?
 
I've read ICUs are at 15% capacity and nurses are bored.

Whatever happened to 'flattening the curve to save the NHS'?
We have seen the first redundancies in Healthcare today - not public domain yet I believe. One of the CSUs which supports a bunch of CCGs in the South East has made 200 people redundant. That's because the CCGs are not referring people to Trusts for operations, so the downturn in transactions means there is nothing for them to do. Like teachers, Healthcare professionals have nowt to do, and while they do it, they are on full pay and clocking up those big fat gold plated pensions.
 
This is contingency planning for Sep onwards, I reckon.

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Preparations under way for a second wave thats expected to dwarf the first wave. I think we we starting to see some commentary in the dreaded media
 
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