MERS Coronavirus warning

As I've previously mentioned, Kazakh and Russian medical communities were reporting unusual numbers of serious and unidentified pneumonic illnesses as far back as spring last year. Given the nature of the regimes and clinical reporting standards in the region, I doubt WHO will be able to collate any meaningful data. However speculation in those medical circles is that C19 is actually the second or third wave of pandemic originating in China.

Significantly, China- Kazakhstan-southern Russia is currently a major transit corridor for trade and for Chinese commercial infrastructure - a northern branch of the old Silk Route. As expected, the predominant flow of people and goods is out of China, with little return flow other than Chinese nationals (Kazakhstan has a serious problem with its poorer people being economically displaced from manufacture, trading and jobs by Chinese nationals).
That sort of pattern could just as easily fit the virus originating in some remote village in Kazakhstan, getting passed on to Chinese citizens at a mine or construction site where lots of Kazakh labourers would be packed into close quarters in barracks, and then carried back to Wuhan some time in November or December by a Chinese citizen returning from a contract in Kazakhstan, who then passed it on to people working in the sea food market in Wuhan while shopping. That is a much simpler explanation than assuming multiple pandemics.

Hypothetically it could be a different variant of COVID-19, one that doesn't show up on the standard test. If we speculate that the virus originated in Kazakhstan (I'm not suggesting this is likely though), then there could be multiple variants of it circulating, only one or a few of which made it to Wuhan, and then on to the rest of the world. This latter variant would be the one our tests are designed to find.

The simplest explanation though is that what is being seen in Kazakhstan are just normal cases of COVID-19 being classified as "unknown pneumonia" due to limitations in testing. Other news reports have supported the idea that testing in Kazakhstan has been less than optimal. COVID-19 spread out of control in the US due to problems with lab testing (the test the Americans developed didn't work reliably), so there is precedent for that sort of thing.

The WHO are going to investigate along with the Kazakhstan authorities, and we'll see if there is actually a new virus or whether it's just COVID-19. As I said earlier, this is a story worth keeping an eye on. However, if I had to lay money on it being either a new virus or just problems with Kazakhstan testing, I would bet on the latter at this time.
 
Ok I'll bite.

Having worked in a covid assessment centre, I know what the criteria for admission are, and nobody got near a hospital without being very unwell. No "observation stays" and hypochondriac were sent home.

Repeated saying it is a cold virus means absolutely nothing, there's hundreds of viruses that cause symptoms analogous to what we call a cold. Many can also cause other symptoms.

With regards to the a dentist, then yes I would say no such thing as "a" dentist. There are multiple specialities, multiple sub divisions of those. Then you can separate on public, independent or private.
For instance, I am a public dental service senior dental officer with a specialist position caring for dependent older patients. Across the corridor from me the morn will be an Independent principle with a special interest in orthodontics, next door to him, will be an associate general dental practitioner. Last surgery will be a vocational dental practitioner.

So just as you can call something a cold virus you can call someone a dentist but that does not mean that every cold virus does the same thing, just as every dentist does not do the same thing.

What's the date on your book as teh link does not work
Repeatedly ignoring the fact that majority of facilities sat basically empty, and all other patients were denied actual care for months, does not make it all better, or any health care system less responsible for their reprehensible actions.

The date of Baron's Medical Microbiology, 4th Edition would be about 1996,

The date of Murray's Medical Microbiology, 8th Edition, where you seemed to have pulled your earlier bit about what other viruses cause the common cold, selectively rearranging the first sentence of the paragraph, which specifically mentions coronaviruses as one of the prominent causes, would be 2016.

Allow me to give a more complete quote from that text...

Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are the predominant causes of upper respiratory tract infections. A
runny nose (rhinitis) followed by congestion, cough, sneezing, conjunctivitis, headache, and sore throat are typical symptoms of the common cold. Other causes of the common cold or pharyngitis are specific serotypes of echoviruses and coxsackieviruses, adenoviruses, influenza viruses, parainfluenza viruses, metapneumovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).


Again, it is only a couple of the influenza viruses that got lumped into causes of "the common cold" syndrome, because, symptoms are what define any given syndrome, and RSV, while it can load up the symptoms, and scale up the syndromes all the way to ARDS (just like every other virus) usually just manifests as rhinitis (the sniffles).

The link I left for my reference works just fine... I won't bother worrying why there wasn't even a mention of the material for your reference.
 
Just to say, population density is a major factor: Blackburn currently has rising numbers, which are getting tracked to the home; terraced housing and large familes..........maybe language may too come to the fore :oops: ;)

Anyhoo, I'm sick to farken death of the Corona, I've walked the dog 4 mile this morning, now considering going for a pint of real draught Ale.
Quite possibly which would mean family/co-habiting clusters but those family clusters (if that’s what is happening) wouldn’t be started if people were following the correct guidelines
 
The number or new cases reported in Spain continues to rise. From less than 100 a week ago to over 800 yesterday. 10 autonomous regions have now made, or are making, it compulsory to wear face masks in public even if the 1.5 distance is maintained, The only exceptions being under 6, respiratory or anxiety problems which make it difficult and on beaches, swimming pools and in bars and restaurants when seated.

Over 100 health areas have now reported new cases which is over double from the end of last week.

8 municipalities in Catalonia have been placed into full lockdown again with no movement in or out of the towns except for essential workers and all non essential shops are to close leaving just supermarkets, pharmacies and tobacco shops open (you can't buy any tobacco products in Spain except in an official "estanco" which also sell postage stamps, bus tickets and are newsagents as well).

It's now 3 weeks since Spain ended its state of alarm and went to the "new normality" which still meant face masks in shops and places where the 1.5m distance could not be maintained plus strict disinfecting rules and limited occupancy of shops, bars, restaurants, swimming pools, sports centres and so on.

Deaths are still at a low level at 0 to 8 per day but the increase in cases is the worrying bit as is the number of hospitalisations going back to double figures.
 
I thought I would post a summary of where the world is at in terms of new COVID-19 infections.
All numbers are from Sunday's data from the following site:

Here's the list of the top 20 countries, ranked by number of new infections. What is notable is that all of the countries except for the US and Russia are from the third world.

The "total to date" column is the number of infections in each country since the start of the pandemic. The "% of world total" column is the percentage of the world total that these represent. The "new" column is the number of new infections on this date (Sunday). The "% of world new" is the percentage of new infections as compared to those of the entire world.

If we focus on new infections, it's quite notable how the top 4 countries, the US, India, Brazil, and South Africa stand out as a large proportion of the world total. The top 4 account for 64% of all new infections, and 49% of total infections to date for the entire world. That these also happen to represent 4 different continents also shows that the pandemic is world wide even if 4 countries account for a large proportion of it.

Before we get to the bottom of the list, countries there represent less than 1% of totals or new infections. This reflects how except for Russia, Europe is no longer a significant factor in terms of new infection numbers. This could change however if Romania, Poland, Ukraine, and other East European countries begin to climb the ranks.

Country​
Total to Date​
New​
% of World Total​
% of World New​
World​
13022287​
188782​
N/A​
N/A​
1​
USA​
3411300​
55654​
26.2%​
29.5%​
2​
India​
879466​
29108​
6.8%​
15.4%​
3​
Brazil​
1864681​
23869​
14.3%​
12.6%​
4​
South Africa​
276242​
12058​
2.1%​
6.4%​
5​
Russia​
727162​
6615​
5.6%​
3.5%​
6​
Mexico​
295268​
6094​
2.3%​
3.2%​
7​
Colombia​
150445​
5083​
1.2%​
2.7%​
8​
Peru​
326326​
3616​
2.5%​
1.9%​
9​
Chile​
315041​
3012​
2.4%​
1.6%​
10​
Saudi Arabia​
232259​
2779​
1.8%​
1.5%​
11​
Bangladesh​
183795​
2666​
1.4%​
1.4%​
12​
Argentina​
100166​
2657​
0.8%​
1.4%​
13​
Pakistan​
248872​
2521​
1.9%​
1.3%​
14​
Iraq​
77506​
2312​
0.6%​
1.2%​
15​
Iran​
257303​
2186​
2.0%​
1.2%​
16​
Kazakhstan​
58253​
1798​
0.4%​
1.0%​
17​
Indonesia​
75699​
1681​
0.6%​
0.9%​
18​
Bolivia​
47200​
1635​
0.4%​
0.9%​
19​
Dominican Republic​
44532​
1418​
0.3%​
0.8%​
20​
Oman​
56015​
1318​
0.4%​
0.7%​
 
As a bit more context to my previous post above, here are the graphs if new infections for the top 4, plotted as a 7 day rolling average. All are still showing an upward trend.

USA

USA.png


Brazil
brazil.png


India
India.png


South Africa
South-Africa.png
 
Bury, bury, bury...

From the next page of Murray's Medical Microbiology, 8th Edition, 2016, we can find a handy-dandy table that covers which "diseases" are usually caused by what viruses... the reason for the *s throughout the list may, as usual, be found at the bottom of the list.

Screenshot (1509).png

What does that say? Is it illegible? Do picornaviruses have an * for "Common Cold?" What do you mean they aren't even on that list? Of course they are... Rhinoviruses and Enteroviruses ARE picornoviruses. Why would anyone use a broader category of name for something already on the list to obfuscate and deny the fact that something else is also primary on the list? Especially after saying that because there is more than one thing on the list, nothing on the list can be called "a" thing on the list?

There is no denying that most things on the list do more than one thing, but that does not make them something less, or more, than what they are (or are primarily known for doing).
 
The mrs' brother and wife were round yesterday for a BBQ and a serious amount of alcohol (as you do on a Sunday) and she runs about 25% of the global supply chain for one of the global pharmas. Anyway. Last time she as round, which was before lockdown, she was telling us the position was basically drop everything for Covid. What she said yesterday was the view is that they will not find a vaccine for Covid. The pharam has very low confidence in it happening.

Death, taxes and Covid 19 boys and girls......
 
The mrs' brother and wife were round yesterday for a BBQ and a serious amount of alcohol (as you do on a Sunday) and she runs about 25% of the global supply chain for one of the global pharmas. Anyway. Last time she as round, which was before lockdown, she was telling us the position was basically drop everything for Covid. What she said yesterday was the view is that they will not find a vaccine for Covid. The pharam has very low confidence in it happening.

Death, taxes and Covid 19 boys and girls......
In which case, an awful lot more people are going to die.
 

Fang_Farrier

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
In which case, an awful lot more people are going to die.
Especially in those parts of the country which have not yet been exposed to the virus in any concentration yet.
 
Especially in those parts of the country which have not yet been exposed to the virus in any concentration yet.
and people that have already had it can reinfect. So basically everyone is vulnerable
 
and people that have already had it can reinfect. So basically everyone is vulnerable
I've had three occasions now this year where I have been laid low by a virus which has come out of nowhere. Each time, the onset is rapid i.e. 12-24 hours from the first sniffle and it has lasted 5-7 days. Was it COVID-19? I have no idea, but I have never experienced anything quite like it before.
 
I've had three occasions now this year where I have been laid low by a virus which has come out of nowhere. Each time, the onset is rapid i.e. 12-24 hours from the first sniffle and it has lasted 5-7 days. Was it COVID-19? I have no idea, but I have never experienced anything quite like it before.
BLitis or Lobsteritis :puker:



:-D
 
and people that have already had it can reinfect. So basically everyone is vulnerable
..and it's yet to be confirmed (to my knowledge) that this is a virus you get just the once. If those people that have had a serious dose but recovered were then to pick it up again, like some people are with flu, they may be able to fight it to a certain extent if they have built up enough antibodies but by all accounts some of those people are reporting that they're still feeling the effects and are weak and potentially vilnerable many weeks after being given the All Clear and discharge from hospital... a second infection may be too much...
 
I've had three occasions now this year where I have been laid low by a virus which has come out of nowhere.
I was with a persistent cough in January, bad throat and difficulty breathing with pains in chest on breathing. Was it Covid19? Absolutely no idea but I have never had such pains before in the chest and have also had the whole range of pneumonia shots.

A lot of the information coming out is just conjecture, such as the fully airborne/not fully airborne argument. The issue with re infection is again not proven either way. If re infection does occur in a healthy individual*, it is most likely a mutant strain. The explanation normally given is that PCR tests will show positive test even with non functional viruses, eg fragments of binding proteins. Again, insufficient research has not been done and at the moment, a lot of research pathways are a bit unethical.

* Re infection of the same strain should really only occur in immunocompromised people.

I agree with others that a lot of people recovering have lungs in a mess and are finding it hard to recover. I think there have even been a few lung transplants but this would be a rare occurence.
 
The mrs' brother and wife were round yesterday for a BBQ and a serious amount of alcohol (as you do on a Sunday) and she runs about 25% of the global supply chain for one of the global pharmas. Anyway. Last time she as round, which was before lockdown, she was telling us the position was basically drop everything for Covid. What she said yesterday was the view is that they will not find a vaccine for Covid. The pharam has very low confidence in it happening.

Death, taxes and Covid 19 boys and girls......

Thats good news - going on your form for postings on this forum - this means there is a Vaccine just over the horizon in the New year 2021

Archie
 
Thats good news - going on your form for postings on this forum - this means there is a Vaccine just over the horizon in the New year 2021

Archie
You may recall I got a full brief on what was really going on in Wuhan in early February from a girl who works for Pfizer who gave me the full low down and also the fibs being put out by the Chinese government.

I posted in mid-Feb what was happening in Italy and the US and also posted what the British Chief Medical Officer had told a mate of mine which was 18 months if at all for a vaccine.

You've had a two or three briefs on what's happening in the Global pharma sector and I also (mid-Feb) told you what the medical consultants were saying, which is this thing will re-infect and they didnt believe a vaccine could be produced.

I told you three months ago a shit-storm was coming on the economy - my guess was 20% of the workforce would go and 30% of buildings and estates would go. 78% of the FTSE250 CEOs said they pan to bin 30% of the workforce - I gave you that gem about 2 weeks ago.

Have a trawl through the posts - it's all there.
 
You may recall I got a full brief on what was really going on in Wuhan in early February from a girl who works for Pfizer who gave me the full low down and also the fibs being put out by the Chinese government.

I posted in mid-Feb what was happening in Italy and the US and also posted what the British Chief Medical Officer had told a mate of mine which was 18 months if at all for a vaccine.

You've had a two or three briefs on what's happening in the Global pharma sector and I also (mid-Feb) told you what the medical consultants were saying, which is this thing will re-infect and they didnt believe a vaccine could be produced.

I told you three months ago a shit-storm was coming on the economy - my guess was 20% of the workforce would go and 30% of buildings and estates would go. 78% of the FTSE250 CEOs said they pan to bin 30% of the workforce - I gave you that gem about 2 weeks ago.

Have a trawl through the posts - it's all there.
Yeah, but!

You also said you'd finish that wokka ;)
 

crow_bag

Old-Salt
Have there been any confirmed cases of someone contracting covid-19 making a full recovery and then getting a brand new case of covid-19?

I.e not just a case of a false negative test followed by a positive test or an infection going dormant for a while.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

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