MERS Coronavirus warning

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
Herd immunity doesn't appear as if it is anywhere near where we require.
There are some issues with the Spain report that don't work for me. Other areas of the world which have carried out major testing manage to find far higher antibody rates, e.g. from over half in Bergamo to 14% in Moscow.


Should only a few percent of people have immunity the virus would immediately reoccur as soon as people left their homes. In the UK we have had nearly 2 months of increasing public contact yet a continuing reduction in rates. This is not representative of a population with an immunity rate of just a few percent. Also still no one has caught it twice.
 
There are some issues with the Spain report that don't work for me. Other areas of the world which have carried out major testing manage to find far higher antibody rates, e.g. from over half in Bergamo to 14% in Moscow.


Should only a few percent of people have immunity the virus would immediately reoccur as soon as people left their homes. In the UK we have had nearly 2 months of increasing public contact yet a continuing reduction in rates. This is not representative of a population with an immunity rate of just a few percent. Also still no one has caught it twice.
Whose sock are you?
 
There are some issues with the Spain report that don't work for me. Other areas of the world which have carried out major testing manage to find far higher antibody rates, e.g. from over half in Bergamo to 14% in Moscow.


Should only a few percent of people have immunity the virus would immediately reoccur as soon as people left their homes. In the UK we have had nearly 2 months of increasing public contact yet a continuing reduction in rates. This is not representative of a population with an immunity rate of just a few percent. Also still no one has caught it twice.
Another remote population has interesting stats.

The results of antibody screenings suggest that 55,000 Icelanders have been exposed to the virus, deCODE CEO Kári Stefánsson revealed in an educational conference yesterday. COVID-19 antibodies have been found in 0.9% of Icelanders who have not been quarantined or recovered from a confirmed infection, Visir reports.

deCODE previously estimated that around 22,000 individuals have been exposed to the coronavirus. But the revelation that around 0.9% of those tested have formed antibodies against the virus leads experts to believe that closer to 55,000 Icelanders have been exposed to COVID-19 so far.

Although more Icelanders than previously thought have formed an immune response to the virus, the proportion is still concerningly small. Kári warned that the results showed that “a very small minority has become immune to the virus, so if it flares up again we will have to respond quickly and very firmly.”

It’s worth noting that scientists are still unsure as to the effectiveness and duration of the protection provided by antibodies. Many believe that there is no guarantee of full immunity against a second infection.

Antibody testing has been carried out by the Icelandic public health service and deCODE genetics since early May. Kári claims that Iceland is ahead of the curve – “we have carried out many more screenings for antibodies than has been done by any nation.”

deCODE is collaborating with a laboratory in British Columbia to research the possibility of using antibodies as a potential COVID-19 treatment. It is still early days for the project, but Kari pledged to keep the public informed about its progress.

A full recording of the educational conference is available here.

Note – this article has been updated in the interest of clarity.

 
Melbourne Australia are going back into lockdown for six weeks as the infection rate there spikes. The border between Victoria and New South Wales will also be closed to non-essential traffic.
Australia's second largest city heads back into coronavirus lockdown
Lockdown measures were reimposed in Australia's second biggest city on Tuesday, confining Melbourne residents to their homes unless undertaking essential business for six weeks, as officials scramble to contain a coronavirus outbreak.

The decision, which affects around 4.9 million people, was announced just hours before the busy border between Victoria, of which Melbourne is the capital, and New South Wales is scheduled to close for the first time in a century.

From midnight on Wednesday, everyone in Melbourne will be required to stay home unless travelling to work, studying, shopping for food or attending medical appointments. Restaurants, cafes and bars will be able to provide takeaway service only, gyms and hair salons closed, household gatherings limited to two people and the current school vacation extended.
There has been a spike in infection rates, with the biggest increase since April. Nearly all of those were in Victoria. The intent appears to be to prevent it from spreading to the rest of Australia. The infection and death rates in Australia are very low by world standards, and Australians are apparently hoping to suppress them low enough to allow life to return to something near normal.
Victoria was responsible for 191 of the 199 new cases reported nationally on Tuesday, the biggest one-day rise since early April. The spike has worried officials, even though the national total of almost 8,800 cases and 106 deaths is far below many other countries.
 
Herd immunity doesn't appear as if it is anywhere near where we require.
Spain has carried out 3 testing procedures on those who have been infected by the CV.
The first showed 5%, the second 5.2% and the one just completed, where they tested 70,000 of those who had tested positive for CV, also at 5,2%.

Some areas and workers showed markedly different results with health workers at over 10%, police and ambulance workers at 9% but some groups at only 2%.

Results from other European countries who have carried out similar tests are 4 to 5%.
Even Sweden (which had a much lower testing number) which didn't do the lockdown thing as strictly as other countries, only showed antibodies present in 5% of those infected but that is quite a leap from the 1.6% shown just four weeks ago.

Looks like we have a long way to go before any group immunity will become beneficial.
A story linked in this post:
mentioned that estimates in various countries are that the actual infection rate was roughly 10 to 20 times the rate confirmed by testing. The numbers of confirmed cases in various first world countries or more advanced third world ones seems consistent with a 5% figure actual infection rate given that assumption, and allowing for different rates of testing.
 
There are some issues with the Spain report that don't work for me. Other areas of the world which have carried out major testing manage to find far higher antibody rates, e.g. from over half in Bergamo to 14% in Moscow.


Should only a few percent of people have immunity the virus would immediately reoccur as soon as people left their homes. In the UK we have had nearly 2 months of increasing public contact yet a continuing reduction in rates. This is not representative of a population with an immunity rate of just a few percent. Also still no one has caught it twice.
Your own article on the UK says that 5% of UK residents had COVID-19 antibodies, which is the same number that @exbleep reported for Spain.
That same testing sample found that approximately 5 percent of the wider UK population have antibodies, though Hancock stressed that more testing is required to paint a more accurate picture.
And you tell us that higher proportions of people in Bergamo Italy and Moscow Russia had gotten sick? We never would have guessed it, apart from the news reports of massive numbers of bodies piling up as people dropped like flies from the disease and the death rate increased by 548%.
According to Italy's National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), at the height of the outbreak in March, 568% more people died in Bergamo compared with the 2015-2019 average. The city and the surrounding province have reported 13,600 total COVID-19 cases.
So I'm glad that we've established from your own evidence that the likely infection rate in the UK is 5% just like in Spain, and that when you get high infection rates like in Bergamo Italy you will know it because massive numbers of people will be dying everywhere.
 
It might not be as clear cut as it seems with the covid19 antibody test. Some conditions show long term high antibody levels ( eg Streptococcal pneumonia), others show a massive drop off. but retain the immunological memory of the antigens to the disease . These infections do not happen again in the individual as either:

1] Immunological memory is retained in what may be called memory cells.
2] Other immune responses mop up the antigen presenting organism on re infection.

So, even if the Ab tests are showing 5% antibody presentation, it does not mean that persons not giving a positive antibody test are not immune and therefore unlikely to be spreaders. In addition, a lot of these tests only test a small Ab range like IgG.

As always, the information on Covid immune response is limited. Or at least to my limited Googling skills.
 

Fang_Farrier

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
It might not be as clear cut as it seems with the covid19 antibody test. Some conditions show long term high antibody levels ( eg Streptococcal pneumonia), others show a massive drop off. but retain the immunological memory of the antigens to the disease . These infections do not happen again in the individual as either:

1] Immunological memory is retained in what may be called memory cells.
2] Other immune responses mop up the antigen presenting organism on re infection.

So, even if the Ab tests are showing 5% antibody presentation, it does not mean that persons not giving a positive antibody test are not immune and therefore unlikely to be spreaders. In addition, a lot of these tests only test a small Ab range like IgG.

As always, the information on Covid immune response is limited. Or at least to my limited Googling skills.

We have been told that covid can continue to affect the immune system so that the same person can go through cycles of negative and positive results over a period of time
 
We have been told that covid can continue to affect the immune system so that the same person can go through cycles of negative and positive results over a period of time
We need more information on how it behaves and I can't find enough information to form a valid opinion.

The only thing I can suggest here is that either:

1] People are being re infected and producing secondary responses using " memory cells."
2] The virus becomes latent as a proviruses, popping up again in the same person in a similar ( but not known ) way to Chicken Pox ( shingles) and Syphillis at the secondary and tertiary stage.
3] The virus initiates an immune response which is imperfect and therefore not complete at the immunological level . The fact? that these people aren't showing a harmful hyper response with heavy lung damage and pneumonia suggests that this option is not likely.

It really is a case of: "wait and see."
 
News just in that Brazilian president Bolsonaro has been diagnosed with Covid 19. Irony or Karma?
Supposedly he is "in good health" which may reinforce his view that it's just like a minor flu.

Has Jair Bolsonaro’s Luck Run Out?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a71548-c049-11ea-b4f6-cb39cd8940fb_story.html
Here's the CBC story on it:

Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro says he has tested positive for the coronavirus after months of downplaying the virus's severity.

Bolsonaro confirmed the test results while wearing a mask and speaking to reporters in the capital Brasilia.

"I'm well, normal. I even want to take a walk around here, but I can't due to medical recommendations," Bolsonaro said. "I thought I had it before, given my very dynamic activity. I'm president and on the combat lines. I like to be in the middle of the people."
 
We have been told that covid can continue to affect the immune system so that the same person can go through cycles of negative and positive results over a period of time
The reason that PCR tests for COVID-19 can produce false positives after someone has recovered is apparently to do with the test picking up broken fragments of viral RNA in the bloodstream that haven't been flushed out yet. The virus may be broken up and no longer viable (the virus is "dead"), but the fragments can be big enough to still trigger the test.

This apparently isn't unusual for this sort of test. However, people have been doing a lot of tests, and so the number of instances of this happening has increased with the number of tests being done.
 
The reason that PCR tests for COVID-19 can produce false positives after someone has recovered is apparently to do with the test picking up broken fragments of viral RNA in the bloodstream that haven't been flushed out yet. The virus may be broken up and no longer viable (the virus is "dead"), but the fragments can be big enough to still trigger the test.

This apparently isn't unusual for this sort of test. However, people have been doing a lot of tests, and so the number of instances of this happening has increased with the number of tests being done.

True for PCR tests but antibody tests if used, should show a more consistent ( true) result.
 
True for PCR tests but antibody tests if used, should show a more consistent ( true) result.
It depends on the anti-body test. Apparently some of them only show that you have previously been exposed to some sort of coronavirus, not specifically the one that causes COVID-19. Coronavirus is a whole family of viruses. Other tests have other problems.

The poor accuracy of most of these anti-body tests in fact is why they are of limited usefulness in telling who has been infected on an individual level. If you are just using them to get a statistical measure of the prevalence of COVID-19, then even with some error they might be good enough.

So far as I am aware, there isn't a really good test yet that can work with a small sample of blood like you would get from pricking a finger and be able to give an accurate result.
 
I've lost the will to live with all of the b0ll0cks on the media and lack of fact and as ever, politicising of the issue. Can someone update me?

Are we all going to die?
is 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% of the population going to die?
Has anyone found an anti-viral remedy?
Is there any likelihood anyone will find and anti-viral remedy?
Has it been proven you can re-infect?

Yours sincerely
Simmerit in Rural Hertfordshire who doesn't actually give a fcuk.....
 
I've lost the will to live with all of the b0ll0cks on the media and lack of fact and as ever, politicising of the issue. Can someone update me?
I'll try.

Are we all going to die?
Eventually. No man is immortal.

is 5%, 10%, 15% or 20% of the population going to die?
See above.

Has anyone found an anti-viral remedy?
A treatment, yes there was one discovered in the UK which helps reduce the death rate.

Is there any likelihood anyone will find and anti-viral remedy?
A vaccine? It's considered likely. There are several being tested right now, including one in the UK.

Has it been proven you can re-infect? (...)
No, at least in the short term. It is possible however that like with many diseases immunity could fade over time. If this is the case, then if and when a vaccine is produced you may have to keep going back for booster shots every few years.
 
I'll try.


Eventually. No man is immortal.


See above.


A treatment, yes there was one discovered in the UK which helps reduce the death rate.


A vaccine? It's considered likely. There are several being tested right now, including one in the UK.


No, at least in the short term. It is possible however that like with many diseases immunity could fade over time. If this is the case, then if and when a vaccine is produced you may have to keep going back for booster shots every few years.
thank you.

So basically its here for keeps.
 
thank you.

So basically its here for keeps.
It's too early to tell for sure, but current thought is that the virus is too widespread throughout the world to just go away. If and when a vaccine is developed, everyone will need to get vaccinated, and it's something we'll need to keep up to date, just like certain other persistent diseases.

On the other hand, Spanish Flu killed more people than WWI and then vanished without a trace.

Everybody seems to think we'll be dealing with COVID-19 for at least until the end of the year, and quite probably for another year or two after that.
 
So far as I am aware, there isn't a really good test yet that can work with a small sample of blood like you would get from pricking a finger and be able to give an accurate result.
Noted. At the moment, I suppose we take these tests as a guide to the number of people who have been exposed and infected for the first time but cannot extrapolate that across the whole population in a country because:

1] There is inaccuracy in the tests.
2] The population is not spread uniformly and so taking samples in one area may not be representative of another area unless conditions of pop density /ethnicity/degree of regulation etc are about the same

Antibody tests need to be looking at the relevant Ab's as well. I would like to see what these kits are actually looking for given your comments attached. We have already had the issue with the media failing to understand the issues with the accuracy of PCR leading to the idea that people can be infected again.
 

vinniethemanxcat

On ROPS
On ROPs
Your own article on the UK says that 5% of UK residents had COVID-19 antibodies, which is the same number that @exbleep reported for Spain.


And you tell us that higher proportions of people in Bergamo Italy and Moscow Russia had gotten sick? We never would have guessed it, apart from the news reports of massive numbers of bodies piling up as people dropped like flies from the disease and the death rate increased by 548%.


So I'm glad that we've established from your own evidence that the likely infection rate in the UK is 5% just like in Spain, and that when you get high infection rates like in Bergamo Italy you will know it because massive numbers of people will be dying everywhere.
Not been to Bergamo, but in Brescia a couple of years ago, and was shocked by the numbers of BAME immigrants there.

It's the Italian equivalent of Sheffield, so a fair amount of working class areas, and there were a large number of these people hanging around, so with the larger % of non- Europeans, we're back with the fact that these people, for some reason, are more susceptible to the virus
 

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