MERS Coronavirus warning

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt

Or not.

'Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth has played down the prospects of there being a Leicester localised lockdown to combat a spike of coronavirus cases in the city.

'The Labour Leicester South MP said he was briefed by Health Secretary Matt Hancock on Saturday after there had been reports the city might be the first in the UK to have a localised lockdown imposed within days.

'Home secretary Priti Patel appeared to confirm such a move was a possibility when she was asked this morning, on the Andrew Marr Show, about suggestions of a localised lockdown, saying “That is correct", before then outlining measures that did not amount to a lockdown.

'Mr Ashworth subsequently said, in a Radio 4 interview: “I listened carefully to the Home Secretary on Marr and I wonder if she got slightly in a muddle or inadvertently misled viewers, because I was very pleased to receive a briefing yesterday from the Health Secretary as a local member of parliament.

“Yes we have a spike in infections here in Leicester, yes we have to respond to that with extra testing capacity and extra support for the local authority, but nobody is proposing a local lockdown in the way that appears to have been presented in the media. Matt Hancock and I were at one with that."


I really don't know why politicians suddenly got excited over Leicester. There was a slight rise a week ago but that has now completely petered out. Surrounding Leicestershire is also presently at zero.

 

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I really don't know why politicians suddenly got excited over Leicester. There was a slight rise a week ago but that has now completely petered out.
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Perhaps it was because they didn't know that it would peter out but instead feared it would continue to rise. Also, we don't know if that slight rise might cause another spike, bearing in mind there's a two week incubation period, so there's another week to wait.
 
Once of the vaccines being developed for COVID-19, Ad5-nCoV, has been approved in China for use by their military.
China approves COVID-19 vaccine for military use, skips final phase of testing

They have done initial trials showing it was safe and that it has some efficacy. The Chinese have skipped over larger scale trials and approved it for use by their military for one year.

It has also been approved in Canada for testing on humans.
China's military has received the green light to use a COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed by its research unit and CanSino Biologics after clinical trials proved it was safe and showed some efficacy, the company said on Monday.

The Ad5-nCoV is one of China's eight vaccine candidates approved for human trials at home and abroad for the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus. The shot also won approval for human testing in Canada.

China's Central Military Commission approved the use of the vaccine by the military on June 25 for a period of one year, CanSino said in a filing. The vaccine candidate was developed jointly by CanSino and a research institute at the Academy of Military Science.

"The Ad5-nCoV is currently limited to military use only and its use cannot be expanded to a broader vaccination range without the approval of the logistics support department," CanSino said, referring to the Central Military Commission department which approved the military use of the vaccine.
Vaccines normally go through multiple testing steps. The first two phases show that it works and is safe on small numbers of people. The third step then does those tests over again on thousands of people, looking for rare cases of problems or reactions to the virus before releasing it to the general public. The Chinese have either skipped this last step, or are doing it on members of their military.
The Phase 1 and 2 clinical trials of the CanSino's vaccine candidate showed it has the potential to prevent diseases caused by the coronavirus, which has killed more than 500,000 people globally, but its commercial success cannot be guaranteed, the company said.

Phase 3, which tests a vaccine's efficacy and safety on many thousands of people, is still to be completed. This step is usually considered the most important for wide spread approval, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The UK are also testing a vaccine. Both the UK and the Chinese are having to do large scale tests in third world countries because there aren't enough new infections at home to tell how well a vaccine actually works. This is actually a problem when trying to develop a vaccine. If lots of people aren't getting sick without the vaccine, you can't really tell exactly how well the vaccine works in preventing sickness (because so few people would get sick anyway).
United Kingdom and Chinese researchers are already chasing the coronavirus beyond their borders, testing potential vaccines in Brazil and the United Arab Emirates because there are too few new infections at home to get clear answers.
Here's a slightly more technical description of the origins of the vaccine.
 
Perhaps it was because they didn't know that it would peter out but instead feared it would continue to rise. Also, we don't know if that slight rise might cause another spike, bearing in mind there's a two week incubation period, so there's another week to wait.
If you refer back to the video on this post that I did on Saturday, things are still a bit unclear on how much of a problem outdoor transmission of the virus is. It may be that the risk when outdoors is lower than we thought, but there are still a lot of uncertainties.
 

vinniethemanxcat

On ROPS
On ROPs
Once of the vaccines being developed for COVID-19, Ad5-nCoV, has been approved in China for use by their military.
China approves COVID-19 vaccine for military use, skips final phase of testing

They have done initial trials showing it was safe and that it has some efficacy. The Chinese have skipped over larger scale trials and approved it for use by their military for one year.

It has also been approved in Canada for testing on humans.


Vaccines normally go through multiple testing steps. The first two phases show that it works and is safe on small numbers of people. The third step then does those tests over again on thousands of people, looking for rare cases of problems or reactions to the virus before releasing it to the general public. The Chinese have either skipped this last step, or are doing it on members of their military.


The UK are also testing a vaccine. Both the UK and the Chinese are having to do large scale tests in third world countries because there aren't enough new infections at home to tell how well a vaccine actually works. This is actually a problem when trying to develop a vaccine. If lots of people aren't getting sick without the vaccine, you can't really tell exactly how well the vaccine works in preventing sickness (because so few people would get sick anyway).


Here's a slightly more technical description of the origins of the vaccine.

Be funny as hell if they give their troops the vaccine and it wipes out the lot........ a lot of people would like to take their revenge on their government's actions over the last few years.
 
Be funny as hell if they give their troops the vaccine and it wipes out the lot........ a lot of people would like to take their revenge on their government's actions over the last few years.
According to a post on another thread, the current crop of Chinese army recruits are all unfit due to excessive masturbation anyway.
 

ABNredleg

War Hero
Governor of Arizona is shutting down bars and gyms, and the Governor of Kansas is mandating masks in public - both are conservative Republicans. You have to wonder how long the White House can keep on minimizing the pandemic as republican states continue to shut things down.
 
Horse shit. People that are obviously ill are getting onto flights - you don't get onto a flight to Pakistan from the UK and require hospital treatment seven hours later if there aren't some serious and obvious health problems prior to boarding. Thats for the airlines to police.
As long as the flight returns empty I fail to see what the problem is.
 
Has there been a slight mutation in this Virus ?

The Leicester outbreak and news that there has been an “unusually high” incidence of coronavirus among children there necessitating school closures, has prompted fresh warnings from teachers’ leaders who later this week will be given detailed government guidance on full school reopening in England in September.

With the government’s confirmation that its decision to close schools in Leicester has been influenced by evidence of increasing numbers of children testing positive for coronavirus,

Haven't read much to suggest that schoolchildren were at much risk of catching it.
 
This Leicester lockdown does not make a whole load of sense to me. Seems like the government trying flex its muscles and warn the proles that they 'must' follow the rules or else.
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
On the information publicly and previously issued to date it doesn't make sense as I mentioned in a previous post. It has come out in the last few hours though that local data for Pillar 2 tests, which are swabs done routinely rather than for those arriving at hospitals with symptoms, have been effectively withheld. They are basing the local lockdown on a spike in these tests from 11 days ago. I think the total number of cases given each day is still correct (i.e. today 689) which suggests the virus is now localised in few places such as Leicester.

The bit in the article below about only people who have signed the Official Secrets Act being able to receive the data sounds such a f_ck up it can only be true.

ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

If it is behind a paywall try to open it through Google with
"Lack of local Covid-19 testing data hinders UK’s outbreak response"
 
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On the information publicly and previously issued to date it doesn't make sense as I mentioned in a previous post. It has come out in the last few hours though that local data for Pillar 2 tests, which are swabs done routinely rather than for those arriving at hospitals with symptoms, have been effectively withheld. They are basing the local lockdown on a spike in these tests from 11 days ago. I think the total number of cases given each day is still correct (i.e. today 689) which suggests the virus is now localised in few places such as Leicester.

The bit in the article below about only people who have signed the Official Secrets Act being able to receive the data sounds such a f_ck up it can only be true.

ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

If it is behind a paywall try to open it through Google with
"Lack of local Covid-19 testing data hinders UK’s outbreak response"
No-one wants to say it outright.

Leicester has a 55% non British population, with 30% of Indian or Pakistani background. There have been a few indicators today that the problem may be there. Matt Hancock was talking about the spread of the virus in particular communities. The there was a piece in the DT from a guy worrying about his Asian community given that they live in multi-generation households and in close proximity to other such households. A scientist on Eddie Mair floating the idea that there may be a weakness in the goverment's virus publicity and maybe they should consider issuing health info in multiple languages. There was the story at the weekend that up to 20% of UK's imported cases came from Pakistan.

However, no-one has the balls to say it. There is a problem in the communities from India and Pakistan. You can't say that on Sky, the Beeb or Ch4 and hope to still have a political (Or other public-facing) career tomorrow lunchtime.
 
The top US infectious disease expert has said that the US may be headed towards 100,000 new infections per day if things do not improve soon. That is up from 40,000 per day now.
U.S. could reach 100,000 new daily coronavirus cases if surge continues, Fauci says
With about 40,000 new cases being reported a day, Fauci, the federal government's top infectious disease expert, said he "would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around."

"I am very concerned," he told a hearing of the Senate health, education, labour and pensions committee.
To put that 100,000 infections per day number in perspective, the UK have only confirmed just over 300,000 infections in total thus far in the course of the pandemic. While these numbers are not precisely comparable, it does give you some idea of the scale of the problem. The latest UK figures show the infection rate there as roughly 800 per day.

The rise in infections is taking place mostly in the southern and western parts of the country.
Infections are rising rapidly, mostly in parts of the West and South, and Fauci and other public health experts said Americans everywhere will have to start following key recommendations if they want to get back to more normal activities like going to school.
The Americans are pinning their hopes on finding a vaccine, but any vaccine solution is many months away, while the infection rate is zooming up now. Wearing masks might help, but masks have become politicised in the US, with people who wear masks being seen as anti-Trump and those who refuse to wear them being pro-Trump.
About 15 vaccine candidates are in various stages of human testing worldwide, but the largest studies — each including 30,000 people — needed to prove whether a shot really protects are set to begin in July. First up is expected to be a vaccine created by the NIH and American biotech company Moderna Inc., followed closely by an Oxford University candidate.

At the same time, the Trump administration's "Operation Warp Speed" aims to stockpile hundreds of millions of doses by year's end so they could rapidly start vaccinations if and when one is proven to work.

Redfield said the CDC already is planning how to prioritize who is first in line for the scarce first doses and how they'll be distributed.

But a vaccine is at the very least many months away. For now, the committee's leading Republican stressed wearing a mask — and said Trump, who notoriously shuns them, needs to start because politics is getting in the way of protecting the American people.

"The stakes are too high for the political debate about pro-Trump, anti-Trump masks to continue," said Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who chaired Tuesday's hearing.
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
Just to add some balance on the USA increase in cases below is the current deaths graph which is presently not mentioned in the main stream media. The virus works its way through populations and locations that have not been affected will be at some point. There may be a small rise in deaths in the future but I would suggest that the massive increase in testing makes up most of the apparent increase in cases. Despite the headlines the US is still at only about 60% of UK/Spain/France/Italy level for deaths.
 

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Canada has extended the ban on most foreign visitors to at least the end of July. This is separate from the ban on travellers from the US, which was renewed a few days ago.
Canada extends ban on most foreign travellers to at least July 31
There are exceptions for air crew, diplomats, immediate family members of citizens, some seasonal farm workers, and international students.

Under yet another order, the requirement for those who do arrive under the exceptions to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival has also been renewed, until at least the end of August. Those who arrive must show that they have a fully worked out quarantine plan.
 
The EU have announced their plans for re-opening their borders to international travel, starting with a list of over a dozen countries which will be allowed to travel to the Schengen zone of the EU.
Canadians to be allowed into EU countries, but U.S. citizens shut out

The list of countries includes Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay. China may be added to the list, but the EU are still discussing reciprocal arrangements with them.

Notably missing from the list are the US, where infection rates are skyrocketing. The US also still ban EU citizens from visiting the US, so the Americans don't have much grounds for complaint.
 

ABNredleg

War Hero
Just to add some balance on the USA increase in cases below is the current deaths graph which is presently not mentioned in the main stream media. The virus works its way through populations and locations that have not been affected will be at some point. There may be a small rise in deaths in the future but I would suggest that the massive increase in testing makes up most of the apparent increase in cases. Despite the headlines the US is still at only about 60% of UK/Spain/France/Italy level for deaths.
The key metrics that US officials are using include the positive case growth trend, which is increasing, and the hospitalization rate, which is also increasing in key states. The vast majority of public health experts are saying thar the increases in cases is due to the increase spread of the virus. Only the White House and its political allies are arguing that the numbers are just the result of testing as they continue to seek to minimize the political damage of the pandemic. The fact that highly conservative states such as Texas and Florida are closing businesses back down points to increase in infections - they wouldn’t be doing so if there was a legitimate arguement that the numbers were due solely to increased testing.
 
From the sounds of it, the Canada-US border will be closed to non-essential traffic for some time to come. An epidemiologist at the University of Toronto suspects it will be at least a year before the border re-opens. He thinks it will take either a vaccine, or until enough Americans have been infected that the pandemic dies out there naturally due to herd immunity.
Reopening the Canada-U.S. border will be a long, piecemeal process
"My guess is it's going to have to stay closed for more than 12 months," Colin Furness, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, told CBC News this week. "It's hard to imagine what's going to happen in the United States until we have a vaccine or until the population has been sufficiently infected that you have herd immunity."
In a poll conducted in May, 47 percent of Canadians didn't think the border should be re-opened before the end of the year.
When Leger Marketing asked Canadians in May when they thought Canada should reopen its border with the United States, 47 per cent of respondents said "not before the end of the year." With more than 2.6 million cases now in the United States, it's unlikely Canadians' enthusiasm for welcoming our American neighbours has increased since then.
It's also quite likely that when the border re-opens to non-essential traffic, border crossings will not recover quickly. For example, after the 9/11 attacks in the US, border crossings between the two countries fell drastically and still hadn't recovered by the time the pandemic hit.
It also can't be assumed that cross-border travel will quickly return to its pre-COVID-19 normal once the threat of the disease has passed, Anderson added. Traffic between Canada and the United States dropped significantly after 9/11 and had yet to fully return to previous levels when the pandemic hit.
COVID-19 is now so widespread in the US that it will probably be impossible to contain it. Given this, it will be difficult to argue for the border to re-open any time soon. The focus now should on how to live with that situation.
But his projection is based on a belief that COVID-19 has now spread too far in the United States for it to be contained. "My assumption is that the genie is so far out of the bottle that there isn't even a bottle anymore," he said.

In these circumstances, it might be hard for any industry or community to argue that the border should be reopened. But accepting that a return to normal is unlikely in the near future could refocus the discussion on what, if anything, can be done to find a new normal that is even just slightly less restrictive.
The article opened with the remark that Trump entered power with a promise to built a wall between the US and Mexico. Now people in much of the rest of the world, and in Canada in particular, want a wall between themselves and the US.
The Donald Trump era began in 2015 with a promise to build a wall between the United States and Mexico. Five years later, the Trump era may end with citizens in much of the rest of the world — Canadians, in particular — insisting on a virtual wall between themselves and the United States.
 
The key metrics that US officials are using include the positive case growth trend, which is increasing, and the hospitalization rate, which is also increasing in key states. The vast majority of public health experts are saying thar the increases in cases is due to the increase spread of the virus. Only the White House and its political allies are arguing that the numbers are just the result of testing as they continue to seek to minimize the political damage of the pandemic. The fact that highly conservative states such as Texas and Florida are closing businesses back down points to increase in infections - they wouldn’t be doing so if there was a legitimate arguement that the numbers were due solely to increased testing.
The Texas Tribune has published some data taken from figures released by the Texas Department of State Health Services. From this data, it's kind of hard to argue that the increases are purely down to more testing, and I've reproduced some below.

1593681455359.png


1593681509016.png


1593681585109.png
 
The UK Government seem to having problems with their information channels. It all sounds like a bit of a shambles to me.



The ability of local leaders to manage new coronavirus outbreaks in the UK is being hampered by gaps in the reporting of infection data for cities and regions, according to analysis by the Financial Times.
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According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944 as he announced the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday.

1593773901108.png



Leicester city council’s public health department only received the elevated infection numbers cited by Mr Hancock last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because the so-called pillar 2 figures are only made available to officials in their own local authority area if they have signed the Data Protection Act.

“I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter, Leicester’s mayor. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
 

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