MERS Coronavirus warning

The following is a US study on the estimated death rate in the US from COVID-19.
Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States

They do a bunch of statistical modelling to try to estimate the number of asymptomatic and other unreported COVID-19 infections to come up with an estimate of the true infection rate in the US. They then apply this estimate to the number of COVID-19 deaths to come up with what the actual death rate is when taking into account all infections.

The number they come up with is 1.3%. This puts it as 13 times worse than run of the mill influenza, the commonly accepted death rate of which is 0.1%. However, they also point out that the influenza death rate does not take into account asymptomatic flu cases, so COVID-19 is actually more than 13 times deadlier than flu, although they don't put a specific figure on that.



Based on this 1.3% number, they estimate that if as many Americans caught COVID-19 as caught flu last year, 35.5 million, then the US would see 500,000 deaths from COVID-19 this year. If COVID-19 is more infectious than flu, then the number of deaths would of course be higher, although they don't attempt to estimate that.
A pile of educated guesswork creating estimations of results to variable what-aboutery is not a study.
 
Oh dear...


I guess it isn't as if the volunteers just couldn't take a walk sans mask and eye pro through the farsands of isolation wards filled with ventilators aerosolizing all that loverly 'rona from the hangers on...

Guess we will need some sort of plan to get all that useless vaccine that may not be produced (for the virus that is disappearing) to turn a profit somehow. Mandatory vaccination for the soon to be disappeared virus? Sounds about right.

Keep Scared
and
Take your Chad Vax.​
 
Oh dear...


I guess it isn't as if the volunteers just couldn't take a walk sans mask and eye pro through the farsands of isolation wards filled with ventilators aerosolizing all that loverly 'rona from the hangers on...

Guess we will need some sort of plan to get all that useless vaccine that may not be produced (for the virus that is disappearing) to turn a profit somehow. Mandatory vaccination for the soon to be disappeared virus? Sounds about right.

Keep Scared
and
Take your Chad Vax.​
Don't worry, the way the US is going we'll be able to find plenty of people over there. We could even treat it like insulin, and stick a four digit mark up on it.
 
Don't worry, the way the US is going we'll be able to find plenty of people over there. We could even treat it like insulin, and stick a four digit mark up on it.
You mean that Bill will.
 
Oh dear...


I guess it isn't as if the volunteers just couldn't take a walk sans mask and eye pro through the farsands of isolation wards filled with ventilators aerosolizing all that loverly 'rona from the hangers on...

Guess we will need some sort of plan to get all that useless vaccine that may not be produced (for the virus that is disappearing) to turn a profit somehow. Mandatory vaccination for the soon to be disappeared virus? Sounds about right.

Keep Scared
and
Take your Chad Vax.​
I wonder how long it will take before Beth Rigby starts finger pointing and demanding that Boris Johnson apologises and resigns for not having produced a vaccine before the virus disappears.
 
First long weekend of the summer Americans were packed together on the beaches and in the swimming pools. This has got health officials crapping themselves at the thought of this leading to a second wave of infections just when the country is trying to get the economy going again.
U.S. partygoers who attended crammed Memorial Day weekend events urged to quarantine
Various authorities now want all those involved to put themselves into 14 days of self-isolation.
Kansas City Health Director Rex Archer echoed Krewson's call for a 14-day self-quarantine for anyone who failed to practice social distancing at the lake, as did the Kansas health department.


The big concern is that the people involved having spent the weekend exchanging viruses will now bring it home to their communities and spread it around there.
Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services Director Randall Williams said in a statement that close contact, even in the outdoors, can lead to more infections that young people can bring home, creating a potential "long-lasting and tragic impact" if they infect vulnerable people.
 
First long weekend of the summer Americans were packed together on the beaches and in the swimming pools. This has got health officials crapping themselves at the thought of this leading to a second wave of infections just when the country is trying to get the economy going again.
U.S. partygoers who attended crammed Memorial Day weekend events urged to quarantine
Various authorities now want all those involved to put themselves into 14 days of self-isolation.



The big concern is that the people involved having spent the weekend exchanging viruses will now bring it home to their communities and spread it around there.
Hmmm, sort of like those 10 000 twunts that showed up at the park in Toronto on Saturday?
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
After mass testing Russia reports a 14% average antibody rate in population with 17% in Moscow. The rate of infection in Russia has been not more than a quarter of that of UK. (max daily deaths to date 153).

I am reading comments online from people who got the antibody test results yesterday from those who got orders in on Friday which could suggest positive results of more than 30% and possibly even 50%.

Today UK public health stops labs working on private tests. Smells like a rat to me.
 
I agree that death rates are measured differently in other locations but it remains clear Russia has to date been affected less by an order of magnitude. 25% of the UK is being very conservative.

So the MHRA, the body that approves and authorises all medical interventions, does its job properly and is suggesting that an intervention is delayed until it has established it's efficacy.

And this somehow smells rattish.

Really?
 
The ones in the pool will be OK because they probably swallowed some pool water.

Which contains chlorine.

Which Dettol Donny approves for internal COVID relief.

Or something.
He’s quoting me about a public park in Toronto were 10 000 people showed up on Saturday, there was no pool, just idiots gathered like was a festival. There were 10 coppers to deal that crowd and only 10 tickets handed out, all for taking a shïte in public.
 
He’s quoting me about a public park in Toronto were 10 000 people showed up on Saturday, there was no pool, just idiots gathered like was a festival. There were 10 coppers to deal that crowd and only 10 tickets handed out, all for taking a shïte in public.
Ahhh I see! It seems like however many times you tell people that this can kill you thy still want to do their own thing!!

Dont tempt the reaper to many times folks because he WILL eventually catch up with you!!

Sent from my SM-T515 using Tapatalk
 
I agree that death rates are measured differently in other locations but it remains clear Russia has to date been affected less by an order of magnitude. 25% of the UK is being very conservative.
It needs observing in UK population. We have to have wide antibody testing to gain a true figure because there are too many variables affecting rate of transmission and so antibody production in the two different populations. I cannot say you are wrong. It is just an unknown and until it is sorted, the government can't form a valid policy vis a vis lockdown etc.

This leads on to your second point.

From the article, it seems that the authorities want a standardised test which is approved by them. As you know, a standardised test will remove non control variables from the results for antibody titre. Whilst it is rather sad that we have not got an approved test by now, I don't think there is anything more sinister in this.

Of course, Roche and Abbott will charge premium prices as they have always done, so cost might be a consideration.
 
Ahhh I see! It seems like however many times you tell people that this can kill you thy still want to do their own thing!!

Dont tempt the reaper to many times folks because he WILL eventually catch up with you!!

Sent from my SM-T515 using Tapatalk
It’s only 10 000 people, apparently in their eyes nothing bad can happen in a city the size of Toronto, not like their actions can effect others down the line......
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
It needs observing in UK population. We have to have wide antibody testing to gain a true figure because there are too many variables affecting rate of transmission and so antibody production in the two different populations. I cannot say you are wrong. It is just an unknown and until it is sorted, the government can't form a valid policy vis a vis lockdown etc.

This leads on to your second point.

From the article, it seems that the authorities want a standardised test which is approved by them. As you know, a standardised test will remove non control variables from the results for antibody titre. Whilst it is rather sad that we have not got an approved test by now, I don't think there is anything more sinister in this.

Of course, Roche and Abbott will charge premium prices as they have always done, so cost might be a consideration.
It is going to be weeks before the UK government gives access to the antibody test to anyone outside of the NHS. In its absence widespread access was just being achieved through private testing which will provide a very good estimate of antibody levels in the population. The lack of urgency to now obtain this after the long wait for the "game changer" is incredibly suspicious to me.
The two tests that are approved by PHE do not give false positives and people seem quite able to squeeze 2 ml of blood into a tube.
 
The two tests that are approved by PHE do not give false positives and people seem quite able to squeeze 2 ml of blood into a tube.
The MHRA does have a job to do though and my points about antibody titre remain valid.

If you maintain it is suspicious, you must elaborate why it is suspicious.
 
It is going to be weeks before the UK government gives access to the antibody test to anyone outside of the NHS. In its absence widespread access was just being achieved through private testing which will provide a very good estimate of antibody levels in the population. The lack of urgency to now obtain this after the long wait for the "game changer" is incredibly suspicious to me.
The two tests that are approved by PHE do not give false positives and people seem quite able to squeeze 2 ml of blood into a tube.
Did you read that in the sun?
 
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