MERS Coronavirus warning

No I don't, he seemed to improve slightly over the afternoon. I was on my way back from work when my mother rang me and said he had died.
All I can say is that with improvement or decline there is adjustment to therapy, and with adjustment to therapy, close watch for some time is very important.
 
Can I just get this right. Are you saying everyone who dies is now put down as CV-19 just because they had a serious illness? People who fall off ladders are put down as CV-19 even if that wasn't the cause?

Wouldn't that mean the number of deaths from other causes would show a significant decrease over the period when CV-19 showed a significant increase?
That, however, isn't the case.
From health,org and the ONS.
With COVID-19 related deaths excluded, for the last 5 weeks, weekly deaths have been at or higher than the maximum of the previous 5 years.

Hmm, with CV-19 deaths excluded, people are still dying of other things and at a higher level than the average. That would seem to show this virus thing is causing more deaths.

Going a week later, to the 24th April, there were 13,760 deaths which did not have CV-19 as a cause. That's over 1900 deaths which is higher than the average by quite a lot. In the same week, there were 23,000 deaths from all causes including the CV-19. That pushes it up to 3,285 a week so well above the figures normally seen.

I think the number of people dying from non CV-19 would put the lie to them recording other deaths as being due to the virus and the all causes number of deaths showing this virus is killing lots of people.

Possibly the higher than average (by some 20%) of non CV-19 deaths could be explained by cancer, heart disease, diabetics etc not getting the same level of treatment they got before the NHS was so pushed. It doesn't explain the comments being made about people being registered as dying of the virus as opposed to other means nor does it explain the comments about it being just the flu under a different name, especially as the end of April should have seen the flu season virtually ending when we had a higher than average number of flu deaths in the peak of the flu season as well.

Health org
ONS
As I understand it, the UK are classifying pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths if COVID-19 was believed to be present. The reason for this is that the pneumonia may be the result of COVID-19, rather than just a coincidence. It is possible that some deaths are getting classified as COVID-19 incorrectly, but I haven't seen any studies on whether the extent of this is significant.

In Canada there has apparently been a rise in deaths from things such as fires at home as people have been spending more time at home. In the absence of a pandemic, statistically, the average person is safer at work than at home, so more time at home means more risk. And this is before you get people doing things like taking chloroquine that they bought off the Internet because someone on Facebook told them it was a good idea.

With regards to delayed hospital treatments, it's a multi-faceted problem. I'll speak in terms of Ontario, as that is the place I am most familiar with.
  • With the high risk of hospital outbreaks of COVID-19, bringing people who have other health issues into hospitals unnecessarily is probably a bad idea. Sending someone with a weak immune system into some place where COVID-19 is wafting about could be a death sentence for them.
  • Hospitals haven't overflowed, but they are still full. Some departments and some specialities may not be in demand, but on average hospitals don't have a lot of spare beds at the moment.
  • Some of those beds are being taken up by patients who would normally be discharged to a long term care home, but which cannot due to the risk of spreading outbreaks to care homes. Outbreaks in care homes is Ontario's biggest problem at present, as community transmission has been falling.
  • Hospitals won't be receiving non-emergency patients until bed occupancy rates fall below 85%.
Some of the problem in Ontario relates to the recent relaxing of social distancing measures, allowing more businesses to open up. This is accompanied by a risk of increase in infections, so spare capacity has to be maintained to allow for that. It comes down to a choice, do we want to re-open the economy, or do we want to re-open the hospitals for more non-emergency care? The numbers don't allow for both so long as there are so many recovering COVID-19 patients. The situation will resolve itself as more patients either recover or die, freeing up beds.

Some sort of outpatient treatment centres outside of hospitals might be set up to deal with some of the backlog, but I haven't heard whether there is anything in the works for that.

I imagine the situation in the UK is similar to what I have described above for Ontario.
 
I'll add to my previous message that there has also been a rise in deaths in Canada from poisonings at home from cleaning products as people have been engaging in more cleaning and so exposing themselves more when they mix the wrong things together.
 
Can I just get this right. Are you saying everyone who dies is now put down as CV-19 just because they had a serious illness? People who fall off ladders are put down as CV-19 even if that wasn't the cause?

[snip...]
No. It was clearly a ridiculous hypothetical example, but the key element was that he had died whilst being the lucky owner of a positive test result for Covid SARS-2. If you listen to the announcements and look at the published figures, this is the criterion for inclusion in the death stats.
 

TamH70

MIA
Just found out two of my Aunts died last week, one of them was in the hospital (my local one, the Royal Alexandra Hospital) for treatment for a liver condition but caught the Wuhan-Variant Coronavirus as an HAI, or hospital-acquired infection, and died of the combined effects. She's already had her funeral, poor sod. The other died of cancer, which none of us knew about until it was too late, according to my oldest surviving aunt. The cancer sufferer has also had her funeral. Neither of the funerals was attended by me because as I said, I have just found out about it.

I don't know how to feel, to be honest. Apart from really angry about anyone saying that this is just "the flu".
 
I don't know how to feel, to be honest. Apart from really angry about anyone saying that this is just "the flu".

I am genuinely sorry to hear that. It will take time to work through your head.
As for the other thing, "they know not what they do" as someone once said.
 
When I had to go to hospital with swine flu, I was stuck in a hospital corridor for 3 hours. It was freezing, I didn't actually feel bad respiratory wise, it was the fact that my head had massively swollen up to a totally abnormal size. Was out after a few days when swelling had subsided, was isolated in a single room.
How much had your head swollen so that you got stuck in a hospital corridor? They're usually quite wide.
 

happyuk

War Hero
How much had your head swollen so that you got stuck in a hospital corridor? They're usually quite wide.
He was in hospital with a bee string on his head.

Luckily his dad had managed to kill it with a shovel.
 

AfricaExpat

Old-Salt
The country is divided into pro and anti lockdown. I want to set that aside and look at the report and the timeline that prompted the government to start the lockdown in the first place. Report 9 by Imperial was published on March 16, 2020. It was finalised only immediately prior to issue as noted in the report comment, “In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days”.

The report relied on a previously published model with parameters varied to match what they considered was Covid-19. “Infection was assumed to be seeded in each country at an exponentially growing rate (with a doubling time of 5 days) from early January 2020, with the rate of seeding being calibrated to give local epidemics which reproduced the observed cumulative number of deaths in GB or the US seen by 14th March 2020.”

On Monday March 16, 2020 the UK government made initial actions to control COVID-19. These included the stopping of non-essential contact, stopping unnecessary travel, working from home where possible, avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and to isolate at home for 14 days if anyone had symptoms. Effective on Monday March 23, 2020 the actions became the law enforced extended lockdown provisions, which we all know well.

My issue is that by the time of the lockdown on March 23, 2020 it was already quite clear that the presumed exponential growth of the virus was not happening. Instead of continuing to grow it was quite possible to see by March 21, 2020 that the affects were never going to be in the order of magnitude claimed by Imperial College. A decent mathematician would have been easily able to re-calculate the bell curve and likely mortality totals. If the writers were still convinced of their arguments on March 16th it was quite clear they were wrong by March 21st.

It turns out that serious academics including Professor Michael Levitt sent messages to Neil Ferguson advising his figures were incorrect by an order of magnitude. The dates of the reviews of the Imperial Report 9 after March 16th need to be made clear.

The significant decline in the rate was happening before any major lockdowns started. I am sure it also matched other countries that were ahead of the UK in infections. In hindsight it was prudent to close pubs, cinemas etc and to encourage social distancing but I am unconvinced that the shutdown of the country had any significant affect on the rate of growth.

Below is my calculation of the rate of increase per day from figures reported each day. It is no longer precise as it does not reflect the various changes to counting but it is within a few percent on any day. The report 9 is at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf
 

Attachments

jarrod248

LE
Gallery Guru
http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&Page&HPAwebAutoListName/Page/1317136202637
Just got this hot off the press, may be of interest to some going to such places.
Almost six years now since I started the topic. What dreadful and miserable year this one has been. No end seems in sight, the clapping for no point hasn’t stopped yet, neither has it helped in any way.
The selfishness of the public still amazes me. When Hospitals are only seeing emergencies your ingrown toenail doesn’t count. ‘It’s an emergency to me’ doesn’t cut it but feel free to argue with me and complain.
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer

jarrod248

LE
Gallery Guru
When this ends I’m going to open up a big toe Ambulance service because they cause me more arguments than anything else. Chop them off if the pain is that bad, chisel them to bits.
 
Just found out two of my Aunts died last week, one of them was in the hospital (my local one, the Royal Alexandra Hospital) for treatment for a liver condition but caught the Wuhan-Variant Coronavirus as an HAI, or hospital-acquired infection, and died of the combined effects. She's already had her funeral, poor sod. The other died of cancer, which none of us knew about until it was too late, according to my oldest surviving aunt. The cancer sufferer has also had her funeral. Neither of the funerals was attended by me because as I said, I have just found out about it.

I don't know how to feel, to be honest. Apart from really angry about anyone saying that this is just "the flu".
Commiserations. Unexpected family deaths are a sod but there's not a lot we can do about it, whether cancer or pneumonia or something else. Someone I knew died of CV19 after moving to an oldies home. Argh, what a waste.

 
Just found out two of my Aunts died last week, one of them was in the hospital (my local one, the Royal Alexandra Hospital) for treatment for a liver condition but caught the Wuhan-Variant Coronavirus as an HAI, or hospital-acquired infection, and died of the combined effects. She's already had her funeral, poor sod. The other died of cancer, which none of us knew about until it was too late, according to my oldest surviving aunt. The cancer sufferer has also had her funeral. Neither of the funerals was attended by me because as I said, I have just found out about it.

I don't know how to feel, to be honest. Apart from really angry about anyone saying that this is just "the flu".
Nosocomial infection and refusal of timely and proper treatment would be the fault of the health care system involved, not the random virus they will blame it on.

My condolences.
 

happyuk

War Hero
Yes, we all know what happened to Boris Johnson. He got sick for a few days, recovered, and then went back to work. Same as me really.

Assuming the COVID positive cases and COVID deaths are accurate (that's a huge leap), the problem is, given the current course of policy, there will be no end. Ever ever ever. You can't defeat this kind of contagion by instituting measures that result in a slow leak. It just won't work . It just delays the period the virus runs through society, prolonging the infection. That's just on the utilitarian end of things. On a practical side, the only way to pull the "slow leak" strategy to curb the virus is to tear down society and establish totalitarian government in its stead. Do you really want totalitarian rule? That's a a sincere question. Some people, including (regrettably) many arrsers, seem to believe liberty is over-rated.

This isn't Marburg, this isn't Ebola. This isn't the Bubonic plague. This is a coronavirus, with a .1% - .2% death rate in league with the seasonal flu, the overwhelming majority of whom being those whose lives would be endangered if they got on a roller-coaster. Herd immunity is a good thing. The quicker we get there the better.
 
Yes, we all know what happened to Boris Johnson. He got sick for a few days, recovered, and then went back to work. Same as me really.

Assuming the COVID positive cases and COVID deaths are accurate (that's a huge leap), the problem is, given the current course of policy, there will be no end. Ever ever ever. You can't defeat this kind of contagion by instituting measures that result in a slow leak. It just won't work . It just delays the period the virus runs through society, prolonging the infection. That's just on the utilitarian end of things. On a practical side, the only way to pull the "slow leak" strategy to curb the virus is to tear down society and establish totalitarian government in its stead. Do you really want totalitarian rule? That's a a sincere question. Some people, including (regrettably) many arrsers, seem to believe liberty is over-rated.

This isn't Marburg, this isn't Ebola. This isn't the Bubonic plague. This is a coronavirus, with a .1% - .2% death rate in league with the seasonal flu, the overwhelming majority of whom being those whose lives would be endangered if they got on a roller-coaster. Herd immunity is a good thing. The quicker we get there the better.
Were you in intensive care?
 

happyuk

War Hero
Were you in intensive care?
I should have been, it was man flu. Which as you and I only know too well is worse than childbirth.

Me and the missus both had some kind of lurgy. The only difference was she was inconsiderately banging and clanging while cleaning the kitchen as I lay dying.
 
The following is a US study on the estimated death rate in the US from COVID-19.
Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States

They do a bunch of statistical modelling to try to estimate the number of asymptomatic and other unreported COVID-19 infections to come up with an estimate of the true infection rate in the US. They then apply this estimate to the number of COVID-19 deaths to come up with what the actual death rate is when taking into account all infections.

The number they come up with is 1.3%. This puts it as 13 times worse than run of the mill influenza, the commonly accepted death rate of which is 0.1%. However, they also point out that the influenza death rate does not take into account asymptomatic flu cases, so COVID-19 is actually more than 13 times deadlier than flu, although they don't put a specific figure on that.

After modeling the available national data on cumulative deaths and detected COVID-19 cases in the United States, the IFR-S from COVID-19 was estimated to be 1.3%. This estimated rate is substantially higher than the approximate IFR-S of seasonal influenza, which is about 0.1% (34,200 deaths among 35.5 million patients who got sick with influenza). Influenza is also believed to be completely asymptomatic in 16% of the infected population, and this fraction is not included in the calculation of its IFR-S. Our COVID-19 IFR-S estimate is not outside the ballpark of estimates becoming available from other countries, but certainly lower, as expected from addressing the upward bias in those estimates.
Based on this 1.3% number, they estimate that if as many Americans caught COVID-19 as caught flu last year, 35.5 million, then the US would see 500,000 deaths from COVID-19 this year. If COVID-19 is more infectious than flu, then the number of deaths would of course be higher, although they don't attempt to estimate that.
If we carry out a thought experiment where 35.5 million individuals would contract COVID-19 illness this year in the US (i.e., the same number as flu last year) then, in the absence of any mitigation strategies or social distancing behaviors and the supply of health care services under typical conditions, our IFR-S estimate predicts that there would have been nearly 500,000 COVID-19 deaths this year. To the extent that COVID-19 is more infectious than flu and does not have any protection from a vaccine or treatment, the number of infections, and hence the number of deaths, would be higher. Certainly, with mitigation strategies, the death toll will be lower. For example, the recent White House COVID-19 Taskforce projections of 100,000–200,000 deaths this year from COVID-19 is made with assumptions about the effectiveness of social distancing directives and measures currently in place.
 

Niamac

GCM
Just had a look at the current weekly run rate for new Covid19 infections;
France 3016
Germany 3959
Italy 4423
Spain 5074
UK 15921
I hope I'm wrong but I think we are chancing our mitt with the increasing lifting of the lock-down.

 

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