MERS Coronavirus warning

Should people be out running on public footpaths and subjecting everyone they pass to a dose of their aerosol laden breath and potential sweat droplets ?
Wor Lass is an ultra marathoner and runs lots (and I mean a lot; an 80 mile week would be fairly normal for her; she's also done a 185 mile non-stop ultra).

Anyway, we live in a rural area and she knows all the country lanes and paths very well and she keeps to them as she can go out for a ten miler and not meet anyone other than the odd cyclist (all cyclists are odd, btw).

But she says she was running down a country road yesterday and there was a lone woman walking towards her, so she moved over to the right so that she'd pass with two meters easily, and as she approached the woman looked frightened and pulled her jumper over her mouth.

My thoughts are that this virus isn't the only thing that's plaguing society; fear and paranoia are up there too.
 
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Reference this video;

I had another look at this week's numbers;
View attachment 463408
There is the first, small but definite fall in the rate of increase in confirmed cases. Thus it would appear that the Government's measures are starting to have an effect but nothing like what has been achieved in Asia.

View attachment 463410
The ratio of deaths to confirmed cases appears to have stabilised over the last three weeks which tends to indicate that the NHS efforts are being effective.

View attachment 463411
Weekly deaths (all causes) has not shown the normal decline at this time of year or to put it another way we are showing an excess number of about 1100 in the week ending 27th March. The Covid19 death numbers separately reported are 3972 so there is still a lot of substitution. Also the Government measures may well be reducing deaths from other causes.

All this is merely my view of the situation and feel free to add or disagree. While the virus has not been beaten it certainly looks as if it is not as out of control as it was. Perhaps it is "the end of the beginning"
Most of the press comes up with "measures taken lower death and cases rate" on a pretty daily basis. Usually the day before cases and deaths rise again. The Spanish press was particularly pushing the "we are over the peak" with deaths falling for 3 days but then showing a big spike upwards. All the press are doing this when there is a slight fall.

And the bit about reducing deaths from other causes.
Both Italy and Spain have carried out an excess mortality study. Over a long period (some 30 years) the world excess mortality has been 1.1 per 100,000 population from flu and pneumonia which has stayed pretty steady regardless of some years showing a spike. Italy now shows a 6 fold increase in this and the Spain study over 100% in some regions of excess mortality. Given the numbers that die from flu and pneumonia each year and the number of deaths from Covid-19 (although high in both those countries), it would be impossible to have such a rise from just the coronavirus.

Both studies, done independently, observe that those with cancer, heart disease, lung disease and other chronic illnesses, are dying in a greater number which could be attributed to the lack of their normal medical attention as it is being diverted to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Italy comes up with a (probably) excess mortality rate of 2.5 to 100,000 population compared to the 1.1 from flu and pneumonia whilst Spain comes up with a lower rate of 1.8 to 100,000 population directly attributable to CV-19 or, should I say, an increase of 1.4 and 0.7 for that reason.

Hopefully, the UK drop will continue and is over the worst. Not one for praying but my hopes do verge on that at the moment for my family and everyone's sake.

ETA
Both those excess mortality studies were done using data from the last 2 weeks in March.
 
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Just as an aside I think the use of "exit strategy" that seems to have arisen carries misleading connitations. At best we are transitioning to a new (hopefully temporary) normal.
 
Ah the Skate is strong in this one.
Copnor born, Copnor bred - faint of heart and thick in the head :cool:

I have lived in said county for the past 29 years....only place I have ever seen such a thing as

'The Conservative Working Men's Club ' : View attachment 463415

- although a short Google shows they are more widespread than I had realised.

Photo evidence freely available.
Seen a few around in London, Surrey and Hants.

A very good friend who was quite a lefty told me he was a member of both the CWMC and the Conservative Club as well as the WMC.

"Seems a bit odd Mel, given your political stance"
"They have snooker tables Ted"
 
I had another look at this week's numbers;

All this is merely my view of the situation and feel free to add or disagree. While the virus has not been beaten it certainly looks as if it is not as out of control as it was. Perhaps it is "the end of the beginning"
Choon?

 
A rather unexpected (to me) side effect of the current situation is that weather forecasts are predicted to become less accurate.
A pandemic side-effect: Weather forecasts may become less accurate

Apparently a good deal of metrological data is reported by commercial aircraft during their trips, and used in weather predictions. As air travel has plummeted, much less data is being collected to feed into metrological models for forecasts.

The effects are not expected to be huge, just a few percent, but it's an interesting example of unexpected side effects.
The impact isn't that great for a number of reasons:
  • National meteorological institutes are doing more radiosonde launches
  • New satellite data is replacing some data - Aeolus sat
  • Jetstream analysis impact is significant but the error reduces when the uncertainty of the atmosphere as a whole takes over after 24 hours.
The impact is less noticeable at the surface, I've been given an estimate of 3% for temp. Couple of links for further reading.

Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts

Aeolus winds now in daily weather forecasts
 
Wor Lass is an ultra marathoner and runs lots (and I mean a lot; an 80 mile week would be fairly normal for her; she's also done a 185 mile non-stop ultra).

Anyway, we live in a rural area and she knows all the country lanes and paths very well and she keeps to them as she can go out for a ten miler and not meet anyone other than the odd cyclist (all cyclists are odd, btw).

But she says she was running down a country road yesterday and there was a lone woman walking towards her, so she moved over to the right so that she'd pass with two meters easily, and as she approached the woman looked frightened and pulled her jumper over her mouth.

My thoughts are that this virus isn't the only thing that's plaguing society; fear and paranoia are up there too.
Agreed (not with the dig at cyclist, though, 'cos I do that too). I have changed my morning run route to one that is as boring as they come, but which, due to it being so boring, has virtually no dog walkers. I was getting fed up with all the dirty looks and exaggerated moving into the bushes as I ran past on my favoured route. The path is 6 feet wide in most places, so it wasn't as if I was rubbing against them and their furry plague carriers.

I did a 30km cycle this morning departing at 6:30, and didn't pass a single person or vehicle until I was 200m from home when some prick in a car squeezed past me and immediately made a left turn causing me to brake hard. Just my luck - not a living soul for 5 miles around apart from this ******** and he finds me.
 
Most of the press comes up with "measures taken lower death and cases rate" on a pretty daily basis. Usually the day before cases and deaths rise again. The Spanish press was particularly pushing the "we are over the peak" with deaths falling for 3 days but then showing a big spike upwards. All the press are doing this when there is a slight fall.

And the bit about reducing deaths from other causes.
Both Italy and Spain have carried out an excess morbidity study. Over a long period (some 30 years) the world excess morbidity has been 1.1 per 100,000 population from flu and pneumonia which has stayed pretty steady regardless of some years showing a spike. Italy now shows a 6 fold increase in this and the Spain study over 100% in some regions of excess morbidity. Given the numbers that die from flu and pneumonia each year and the number of deaths from Covid-19 (although high in both those countries), it would be impossible to have such a rise from just the coronavirus.

Both studies, done independently, observe that those with cancer, heart disease, lung disease and other chronic illnesses, are dying in a greater number which could be attributed to the lack of their normal medical attention as it is being diverted to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Italy comes up with a (probably) excess morbidity rate of 2.5 to 100,000 population compared to the 1.1 from flu and pneumonia whilst Spain comes up with a lower rate of 1.8 to 100,000 population directly attributable to CV-19 or, should I say, an increase of 1.4 and 0.7 for that reason.

Hopefully, the UK drop will continue and is over the worst. Not one for praying but my hopes do verge on that at the moment for my family and everyone's sake.

ETA
Both those excess morbidity studies were done using data from the last 2 weeks in March.
You do know that 'morbidity' and 'mortality' are two entirely different things, don't you? It might make sense out of your post.
 

holyphuc

Old-Salt
In light of all the businesses with problems, this from the "2 Ronnies"

.It is with great sadness that I have to mention the loss of a few local businesses.

A local Bra Shop has gone bust.
A Mining Company has gone under.
A manufacturer of food blenders has gone into liquidation.
A Dog Kennels has had to call in the retrievers.
An origami book company has folded.
An Ariel Installation company has called in the receivers.
A Key Company has gone into lockdown.
A Watchsmith has wound down and called time.
An Iceland store has had its assets frozen.
A Shoe Factory has been soled and employees given the boot.
The Heinz factory has been canned as they couldn't ketchup with orders.
The tarmac company has reached the end of the road.
The bread company has run out of dough.
The laundrette has been taken to the cleaners.
And finally the AA Recovery Service are on their way to a breakdown!
You forgot about the ice-cream salesman who was found covered in nuts and raspberry sauce, he'd topped himself
 
Here in Denmark, the PM just announced the gradual reopening of the country starting after Easter. KIndergartens will be reopening, and the youngest school classes (roughly equivalent to primary schools) will be starting again. Older pupils will continue to receive online teaching, and the exams will be replaced by grades based on their school work.
 
You do know that 'morbidity' and 'mortality' are two entirely different things, don't you? It might make sense out of your post.
Yes, I do. But the studies are called Morbidity but relate to mortality in English. Referred to as Morbididad instead of Mortalidad but not sure if they directly translate hence the use of morbidity instead.
Looking at a US article that quotes the studies, they have translated the morbididad to mortality so, yes, it would make more sense.
And thank you for pointing it out. I have adjusted the post to reflect that.
 
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Amazing, isn't it?

Map shows excellent correlation between outbreak of viral infection and population density/urban areas. Who would have ever guessed?

Wholly excluding N.I of course.
cities vote Labour, civilisation votes Tory.
 
Hopefully the Mayor of Heanor will get a visit from plod.
Although I wouldn't bank on it.
Just when I thought I could not be more appalled, suddenly I am witnessing this.

Bring back the death penalty for treasonous offences such as this. Hell yes.

Where do I sign...
 

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