MERS Coronavirus warning

Viruses grow at an exponential rate until they are unable to grow further. As such I can just about guarantee that tomorrow more people will die from Corona than today. In fact around 600,000 people die each year in the UK. At present not more than 20,000 will die from the virus and likely less. Of these people most will likely have died without any virus infection in the next 6 months.

The “cure” as prescribed by the media and our timid politicians is causing the collapse of the economy and will lead in the next couple of months to several million being made unemployed. Ultimately more people may end up losing their lives in various ways from the cure than from the virus.

My mind is screaming that we have an idiocracy in all positions of power. People who cannot rise above a mantra that each life lost is a tragedy and must be prevented. The country clearly needs another 10,000 ventilators so get them made, testing of the first batch can be done in the field if necessary. Get the young people back to work and provide proper shelter for the old and vulnerable who need it. Without these actions the cure is many times worse than the virus.
So what's new?

Have you considered that no government, not even an authoritarian Chinese communist one, could afford to sit back and do nothing if they wished to ever be elected again?
 
Ah so Orange man bad is to blame.

Not your princely cuck of a Prime Minister who would probably have given any masks you did stockpile to any and all ethnics as a virtue signalling exercise? Would be a different matter if false eyebrows were in short supply no doubt.

Not your health managers whose responsibility it is to plan for these sort of occurences?

Not the feminist globalist ideology which demands open borders and everything to be made abroad, no matter how vital?

I'm sure if we make them then your prime cuck only needs to ask. Suspect he'd rather whinge.
If reading about the news troubles you, don't read it.
 
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So what's new?

Have you considered that no government, not even an authoritarian Chinese communist one, could afford to sit back and do nothing if they wished to ever be elected again?
I am not saying they should have done nothing but rather I am talking about the position we are in right now. By the end of April the rate of increase will be around nil given the persistent decline in the growth rate. In the next week, or by latest after Easter Monday is the time to start to let the economy start again.
 
Viruses grow at an exponential rate until they are unable to grow further. As such I can just about guarantee that tomorrow more people will die from Corona than today. In fact around 600,000 people die each year in the UK. At present not more than 20,000 will die from the virus and likely less. Of these people most will likely have died without any virus infection in the next 6 months.

The “cure” as prescribed by the media and our timid politicians is causing the collapse of the economy and will lead in the next couple of months to several million being made unemployed. Ultimately more people may end up losing their lives in various ways from the cure than from the virus.

My mind is screaming that we have an idiocracy in all positions of power. People who cannot rise above a mantra that each life lost is a tragedy and must be prevented. The country clearly needs another 10,000 ventilators so get them made, testing of the first batch can be done in the field if necessary. Get the young people back to work and provide proper shelter for the old and vulnerable who need it. Without these actions the cure is many times worse than the virus.
The 20,000 death projection was with the current measure. The projected death rate for the UK under a "do nothing" scenario was over half a million deaths over the space of a few months, not a few tens of thousands.

And I'm not sure what good you thought that 10,000 ventilators would do under a "do nothing" scenario either. They would be a tiny fraction of what would be needed. And if you somehow built an order of magnitude more, where would you get the trained staff to make use of them?


 
I am not saying they should have done nothing but rather I am talking about the position we are in right now. By the end of April the rate of increase will be around nil given the persistent decline in the growth rate. In the next week, or by latest after Easter Monday is the time to start to let the economy start again.
We don't know it is the truth. You hope that, as do I. Thing is, how do we control it? Do we go straight into a second wave?
 
The 20,000 death projection was with the current measure. The projected death rate for the UK under a "do nothing" scenario was over half a million deaths over the space of a few months, not a few tens of thousands.

And I'm not sure what good you thought that 10,000 ventilators would do under a "do nothing" scenario either. They would be a tiny fraction of what would be needed. And if you somehow built an order of magnitude more, where would you get the trained staff to make use of them?


Thing is with those predictions, why is there such a disparity between Chinese official figures and our estimates?
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
If reading about the news troubles you, don't read it.
Yeah fair one... The idea that canucks are all cucks shouldn't really have been news to me.

My apologies...
 
I am not saying they should have done nothing but rather I am talking about the position we are in right now. By the end of April the rate of increase will be around nil given the persistent decline in the growth rate. In the next week, or by latest after Easter Monday is the time to start to let the economy start again.
The infection curve seems to have levelled off in Italy, and perhaps in Spain. That's good news if it is true. The number of new should start falling rapidly in those countries.

The UK is behind those two in terms of what phase of the pandemic it is in. We have to watch the stats coming in to see when the curve starts to turn in the UK as well.

What we can do now is plan and prepare for the next phase, which will be how to reduce the level of isolation while keeping the virus suppressed. If we don't do that, it will come back as bad or worse than ever.

I've made a couple of posts already today on this subject in this thread, regarding masks. Debate seems to be bending towards copying the methods used by the countries in the Far East on this and which appear to have been successful.
 
We don't know it is the truth. You hope that, as do I. Thing is, how do we control it? Do we go straight into a second wave?
I go from the John Hopkins figures as delivered by the UK health authorities. True though that they could be misrepresenting the same as others. I am encouraged by the statement yesterday from Catherine Calderwood, Scotland’s chief medical officer who said every death meant there were roughly 1,000 corona virus infections in the general population. - rate of UK case increase
Rate of UK case increase.PNG
 
The infection curve seems to have levelled off in Italy, and perhaps in Spain. That's good news if it is true. The number of new should start falling rapidly in those countries.

The UK is behind those two in terms of what phase of the pandemic it is in. We have to watch the stats coming in to see when the curve starts to turn in the UK as well.

What we can do now is plan and prepare for the next phase, which will be how to reduce the level of isolation while keeping the virus suppressed. If we don't do that, it will come back as bad or worse than ever.

I've made a couple of posts already today on this subject in this thread, regarding masks. Debate seems to be bending towards copying the methods used by the countries in the Far East on this and which appear to have been successful.
Successful in the sense that the progress of the disease is slowed. I don't think it could be described as stopped. look at the trajectories of Far East countries in the link.

Covid trends link.

Heres an associated video which explains it.
 
I go from the John Hopkins figures as delivered by the UK health authorities. True though that they could be misrepresenting the same as others. I am encouraged by the statement yesterday from Catherine Calderwood, Scotland’s chief medical officer who said every death meant there were roughly 1,000 corona virus infections in the general population. - rate of UK case increaseView attachment 462423
We've probably been following much the same stories. Doesn't change what I said.
 
Successful in the sense that the progress of the disease is slowed. I don't think it could be described as stopped. look at the trajectories of Far East countries in the link.

Covid trends link.

Heres an associated video which explains it.
"Stopped" as in a drastic fall in the number of daily infections in the Far East (Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea). COVID-19 hasn't gone away however, and neither have their infection control measures. Medical and scientific opinion at this time is that we will be dealing with COVID-19 for the next year or two.

However, what it does allow for is restarting most economic activity, although there are still restrictions on international movement and large public gatherings.
 
Viruses grow at an exponential rate until they are unable to grow further. As such I can just about guarantee that tomorrow more people will die from Corona than today. In fact around 600,000 people die each year in the UK. At present not more than 20,000 will die from the virus and likely less. Of these people most will likely have died without any virus infection in the next 6 months.

The “cure” as prescribed by the media and our timid politicians is causing the collapse of the economy and will lead in the next couple of months to several million being made unemployed. Ultimately more people may end up losing their lives in various ways from the cure than from the virus.

My mind is screaming that we have an idiocracy in all positions of power. People who cannot rise above a mantra that each life lost is a tragedy and must be prevented. The country clearly needs another 10,000 ventilators so get them made, testing of the first batch can be done in the field if necessary. Get the young people back to work and provide proper shelter for the old and vulnerable who need it. Without these actions the cure is many times worse than the virus.
I'm reading/listening to some knowledgeable types who're saying what you're saying.

We've basically over-reacted.

Here's a German pointy head (who checks out as a genuine expert; after a quick internet google) who explains why Wuhan and Italy had a rough time and explains why the path Germany has went down is destructive in the long term:

 

CaptainCowpat

Old-Salt
Viruses grow at an exponential rate until they are unable to grow further. As such I can just about guarantee that tomorrow more people will die from Corona than today. In fact around 600,000 people die each year in the UK. At present not more than 20,000 will die from the virus and likely less. Of these people most will likely have died without any virus infection in the next 6 months.

The “cure” as prescribed by the media and our timid politicians is causing the collapse of the economy and will lead in the next couple of months to several million being made unemployed. Ultimately more people may end up losing their lives in various ways from the cure than from the virus.

My mind is screaming that we have an idiocracy in all positions of power. People who cannot rise above a mantra that each life lost is a tragedy and must be prevented. The country clearly needs another 10,000 ventilators so get them made, testing of the first batch can be done in the field if necessary. Get the young people back to work and provide proper shelter for the old and vulnerable who need it. Without these actions the cure is many times worse than the virus.
I'm leaning towards the idea that the government isn't doing these measures to save lives for any particular sense of morality. It's down to saving the health system. If things continued as they were going, the amount of deaths would have:

-Wiped out the staff of the NHS as an effective workforce. From the newly qualified to near to retirement they would have been worked to death (A lot literally) and unable to continue in the job. There's a lot getting that way even now.
-Wiped out the healthcare infrastructure nationwide

=Now the nation has no means to deal with the day to day health and treatment that a running country needs. At a pandemic level it isn't so much about saving lives, it's making sure you have something to go back to when it blows over.

Without the new steps that would have been it, done. No more hospitals, GP surgery, pharmacist etc. You'd have to start again after essentially a scorched earth policy.

The steps have been put in place to manage the numbers coming into the hospital's so there is a system leftover when this ends.

It's just been wrapped up in a sparkly package of graphs, comparisons to other nations, finger pointing at celebs/politicians/football clubs

Boris hinted at it with his, "some of your loved ones will die before their time" but from the response of massive loo roll expeditions, hording of perishable foods, people off on jollies to nature parks it's clear that a significant proportion of people can't deal with being a grown up. The only options left would be to scare people to death with brutal honesty (Here come the riots) or bumble about and keep them distracted with vague hints of moving forward or group activities over facebook

Oh and bang pans every Thursday. It makes the public forget the fact the frontline staff still haven't got the right PPE or the enough of it. But the lid banging will make them safe.

It's like if there was a massive nationwide Firestorm and we start clapping and banging pots together for the brave firemen as they walk into the flames with just a damp tea towel on their heads and a pair of sunglasses

Sorry I'm a bit touchy tonight!
 
I'm reading/listening to some knowledgeable types who're saying what you're saying.

We've basically over-reacted.

Here's a German pointy head (who checks out as a genuine expert; after a quick internet google) who explains why Wuhan and Italy had a rough time and explains why the path Germany has went down is destructive in the long term:

Thanks for that as I had not heard of him. I must state I am not Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi but he does say exactly what I am talking about. The video you attached was from a couple of weeks ago but his position has not changed. A video from 2nd April is here
This is a nasty flu virus but it is not Ebola. It must be treated as such.
 

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