The graphs I am using are logarithmic on both scales;If you look at a graph that is posted on a log scale you will get a better idea of when things start to change. I'll look one up a bit later and post it.
The deaths graph is merely to see if there is a significant change to the normal death rate of 10,000 a week. Yhen we will be able to see if the CoV19 deaths are seriously additional or merely replacing old age deaths from other causes. Inconclusive at present.