MERS Coronavirus warning

Extra restrictions were imposed in Spain on Monday. Now, all non-essential businesses must close and food stores, regardless of the size, must close on Sundays in the Valencia Region and postal services have been declared non-essential so no mail coming through. However, I've notice several courier companies still doing their rounds.
Despite this, the number of deaths in the last 24 hours has reached yet another high at 849 extra taking the total to over 8,000. Over half of these are in the Madrid and the adjacent region of La Mancha where a lot of Madrilenos live. Catalonia and the Basque Country are the next two highest. (Madrid was the region that allowed a big, International Women's Day parade, a large political rally and a football final to go ahead despite people starting to kark it at the beginning of all this.)
All this when the number of new cases is reducing so it seems the deaths are from the critical cases diagnosed some 10 days ago. The Regional Health minister, in her daily brief, says that 18 deaths in the Valencia Region are from care homes close to Valencia. Of the over 9,000 new cases, 8,647 were from Madrid, La Mancha and Catalonia.

On the plus side, the Valencian university have come up with a new design for ventilators and 8 companies will start producing them. Four of the companies will produce 400 a week and the other 4 will target 160 per week.
There are 5,607 patients still requiring ventilators and the 5,000 that Spain received from China last week are being issued to the various health authorities throughout the regions. Doctors have said they will need the extra to treat those who are not in ICU but would need help and have also ordered an increased number from a Swiss manufacturer. If production meets its targets the ventilators will be offered to other countries who need them (the press report didn't say other EU countries, just other countries).

A toy company from Ibi in the Valencian Region has turned its production to face masks and sanitary covers plus producing the spare parts needed for ventilators and the largest sportswear company in Spain has turned production over to faces masks and protective aprons. At least the press have stopped printing the lack of PPE stories for the time being. 6 million masks were doled out by one company at the weekend.

All the production is being done at cost.

Not allowed out for exercise, not allowed out in twos (even taxis are only allowed to take one passenger) and all building and construction work has been declared non-essential so very quiet all around. Really heavy fines if you are stopped and 600 euro seems to be the norm although it did say that would be the maximum. Even all town halls have been closed down until after Easter.

National Health Minister is saying the numbers will peak this weekend coming so be prepared for many more deaths but number of cases has probably (note the probably) already peaked.

Everyone expecting an extension to the lockdown which is currently until 12th April. An extension has to be approved by the senate and Catalonia delayed the last one because they want the whole of Catalonia to be locked down and no movement in or out. The restrictions went ahead anyway but weren't officially approved until today.

Strange times.
 
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At present approx 9,600 in hospital, those showing symptoms supposedly self isolating, anyone care to hazard a guess as to how many plagued are walking around. Bearing in mind the vast majority out and about surely must be key workers, bearing in mind a lot of carriers who are asymptomatic and also the carriers who are not yet displaying symptoms.
 
This will all change when they start to publish the full numbers not just those that have died in a hospital bed

Apparently they are not counting those that have died in a Care home / at home / or other residential setting ?

Archie
It’s the MSM trying to stoke fear. everyone who dies on a care home was end of life anyway. You dint get cured of old age.

96 year old with dementia, COPD and heart disease dies of Coronavirus not flu shocker.
 
So much for Ireland being so much better according to one poster than Britain
very robust measure have been in place to stop this in the UK for weeks.
you would expect the odd breakout, but this is a bit more than that.

 
Apart from USN CVN has sailor or two diagnosed with corona it’s now the Russians turn. Only this time it’s whole complement of an Oscar II class SSGN being quarantined ....

Dealing with the isolation, advice from a submariner.
 
Extra restrictions were imposed in Spain on Monday. Now, all non-essential businesses must close and food stores, regardless of the size, must close on Sundays in the Valencia Region and postal services have been declared non-essential so no mail coming through. However, I've notice several courier companies still doing their rounds.
Despite this, the number of deaths in the last 24 hours has reached yet another high at 849 extra taking the total to over 8,000. Over half of these are in the Madrid and the adjacent region of La Mancha where a lot of Madrilenos live. Catalonia and the Basque Country are the next two highest. (Madrid was the region that allowed a big, International Women's Day parade, a large political rally and a football final to go ahead despite people starting to kark it at the beginning of all this.)
All this when the number of new cases is reducing so it seems the deaths are from the critical cases diagnosed some 10 days ago. The Regional Health minister, in her daily brief, says that 18 deaths in the Valencia Region are from care homes close to Valencia. Of the over 9,000 new cases, 8,647 were from Madrid, La Mancha and Catalonia.

On the plus side, the Valencian university have come up with a new design for ventilators and 8 companies will start producing them. Four of the companies will produce 400 a week and the other 4 will target 160 per week.
There are 5,607 patients still requiring ventilators and the 5,000 that Spain received from China last week are being issued to the various health authorities throughout the regions. Doctors have said they will need the extra to treat those who are not in ICU but would need help and have also ordered an increased number from a Swiss manufacturer. If production meets its targets the ventilators will be offered to other countries who need them (the press report didn't say other EU countries, just other countries).

A toy company from Ibi in the Valencian Region has turned its production to face masks and sanitary covers plus producing the spare parts needed for ventilators and the largest sportswear company in Spain has turned production over to faces masks and protective aprons. At least the press have stopped printing the lack of PPE stories for the time being. 6 million masks were doled out by one company at the weekend.

All the production is being done at cost.

Not allowed out for exercise, not allowed out in twos (even taxis are only allowed to take one passenger) and all building and construction work has been declared non-essential so very quiet all around. Really heavy fines if you are stopped and 600 euro seems to be the norm although it did say that would be the maximum. Even all town halls have been closed down until after Easter.

National Health Minister is saying the numbers will peak this weekend coming so be prepared for many more deaths but number of cases has probably (note the probably) already peaked.

Everyone expecting an extension to the lockdown which is currently until 12th April. An extension has to be approved by the senate and Catalonia delayed the last one because they want the whole of Catalonia to be locked down and no movement in or out. The restrictions went ahead anyway but weren't officially approved until today.

Strange times.
Some good news there. Stay safe old chap.
 

A.N.Other

Old-Salt
It’s the MSM trying to stoke fear. everyone who dies on a care home was end of life anyway. You dint get cured of old age.

96 year old with dementia, COPD and heart disease dies of Coronavirus not flu shocker.
What if that 96 year old would not have died if not infected?

Do you right off someone and ignore the cause of death just because they are old and infirm?

My mother is 72yrs. She has 24hr care at home due to multiple health issues caused by an aneurysm 24yrs ago. She has mobility issues, epilepsy, short term memory loss and a few more. Even so, she leads a full and loving life and can expect to continue to live for another few years yet. She is loved by her grand kids and great grand kids. She has a social life and friends. She is happier now than she has ever been.

Based on what you have said we may as well get it over with and put her out of her misery. She's going to die sooner rather than later. What does it matter if it is COVID19, "old age" or a bolt gun to the back of the head?

While the cause of death may be an existing condition, if it is accelerated due to COVID19 then COVID19 is the ultimate cause of death and should be recorded as such.

I want to find a nice way to tell you where to stick your post but I don't want to get in trouble.
 

Niamac

GCM
Any chance of doing the same thing for deaths? With all the discussion about testing in some situations but not others I think deaths are probably more accurate (although that's not saying much).
I've had a good scout round the John Hopkins site but cannot find a data set for deaths (although it must be there)
I've got the daily deaths since 20th March so I can produce it from date. At present there are only two data points on it so it's not much use. All the caveats previously stated still apply. Short term optimism is really just whistling in the dark.
 
Someone up the thread asked the question "all I want to know is what are my chances of dying if I go to hospital". Good question given that many infected will be asymptomatic and not have a problem, so normal jogging for them.

It's not easy to find data on deaths per hospitalised cases. However, I did find the numbers for New York dated 28th March. The SIRS model for epidemics is a useful visualisation breaking populations down into Susceptible, Infected, Removed and Survived. You can probably work out what Removed is a euphemism for.

View it as a funnel with the entire population in a hopper feeding it:

Total Population of NY (2).jpg

Dunno what the population of NY is - probably 8-10 million depending on where you set the boundaries. The declared rate of infection is 44,000 with 6000 hospitalised.

1,600 of them are in intensive care (rare for more than a quarter of patients to end up in ICU at one time). 519 have died.

So your chances of dying if you go to hospital are 1 in 12.

If you go into ICU you have a 1 in 3 chance of coming home in a nice urn. There's your odds.

Usual caveats apply - its only a snapshot of the numbers on one day; no idea how many of the infected are on their way to ICU/recovered(ing); no idea of the age distribution of fatalities; blah blah.

A lot of people in the hopper will be making the downward journey to the bottom of the funnel. We ain't seen nothing yet.


And to whoever asked the question about deaths in care homes the government add 40 onto the total deaths today.
 
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I've had a good scout round the John Hopkins site but cannot find a data set for deaths (although it must be there)
I've got the daily deaths since 20th March so I can produce it from date. At present there are only two data points on it so it's not much use. All the caveats previously stated still apply. Short term optimism is really just whistling in the dark.
Never mind for the graph. If you want the data set you can download the complete set of excel files - CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

I downloaded them a few days ago and spent time looking but it's a bit of a ballache to find the right ones.
 

Niamac

GCM
Never mind for the graph. If you want the data set you can download the complete set of excel files - CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

I downloaded them a few days ago and spent time looking but it's a bit of a ballache to find the right ones.
Thanks I'll have a look through them. Interestingly the ONS weekly summary of Deaths (in England & Wales), up to 20th March, does not show any statistically significant rise in weekly deaths, running at about 10 - 11 thousand. In January it was about 2 - 3 thousand higher as the GR gets about a bit more in the cold weather.

Keep in touch.
 
It’s the MSM trying to stoke fear. everyone who dies on a care home was end of life anyway. You dint get cured of old age.

96 year old with dementia, COPD and heart disease dies of Coronavirus not flu shocker.
That may be true, you can either die of the CoVid 19 or die with it.

What is required is an accurate handle on the spread /infection rate and who has had / had it and now ok / who does not have it etc. All the number feed in to an accurate track of infection.

Archie
 
Here's a livestream of Wuhan for anyone interested.

I've been following it for weeks, its noticeably busier now than a fortnight ago, even though it still looks quiet for a pop. of ten million. I believe the lockdown there proper is ending next week.
 
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Scunner

Old-Salt
Someone up the thread asked the question "all I want to know is what are my chances of dying if I go to hospital". Good question given that many infected will be

And to whoever asked the question about deaths in care homes the government add 40 onto the total deaths today.
This looks like the answer for Great Britain ? 9% recovered if you get it bad?
cv death.jpg

Nicked from the Worldometer site
 
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What was the number of deaths and new infections for the UK for the last 24 hours and what's the best website to look at daily for this?
 
What was the number of deaths and new infections for the UK for the last 24 hours and what's the best website to look at daily for this?
The government figures are updated mid-afternoon - Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK

For a longer term look the worldometer site is pretty clear but doesn't update as fast - United Kingdom Coronavirus: 22,141 Cases and 1,408 Deaths - Worldometer

For a good comparison between countries the Financial Times is really clear but about a day behind the others - Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read
 
What if that 96 year old would not have died if not infected?

Do you right off someone and ignore the cause of death just because they are old and infirm?

My mother is 72yrs. She has 24hr care at home due to multiple health issues caused by an aneurysm 24yrs ago. She has mobility issues, epilepsy, short term memory loss and a few more. Even so, she leads a full and loving life and can expect to continue to live for another few years yet. She is loved by her grand kids and great grand kids. She has a social life and friends. She is happier now than she has ever been.

Based on what you have said we may as well get it over with and put her out of her misery. She's going to die sooner rather than later. What does it matter if it is COVID19, "old age" or a bolt gun to the back of the head?

While the cause of death may be an existing condition, if it is accelerated due to COVID19 then COVID19 is the ultimate cause of death and should be recorded as such.

I want to find a nice way to tell you where to stick your post but I don't want to get in trouble.
Mate, long may you hang onto her in joy and happiness.
 
Regarding the increase in Spain of the number of cases being reported as "lower", this is using percentages rather than figures so the increase of 6% compared with 7% and 10% in the previous days is a bit of a misnomer.

They've also moved one of the Spanish navy ships, the Galicia
1585661280152.png

which is a landing ship, across to Melilla, a Spanish enclave off the coast of Morocco, to use as a hospital ship. Not sure if moving infected patients to N Africa is in the spirit of containment.
 
I want to find a nice way to tell you where to stick your post but I don't want to get in trouble.

you could do, but would just confirm you are rather an emoting member.
People in their 90’s in old peoples homes are 99.9% not sprightly paragons of health, mostly bed bound, and all one dose of flu away from pegging it. But what would my wife know, being an end of life care nurse in an peoples home and having dealt with a couple of hospital discharges who tested +ve.
 

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