MERS Coronavirus warning

US president Trump is now saying that keeping the US COVID-19 death toll below 100,000 would be doing a "very good job".
Looking over that news article again, it appears that Trump's 100,000 deaths being the sign of doing a good job comes from a briefing he had with his public health officials. Certain advisors to Trump had been pushing to relax the "social distancing" regulations early in order to limit the economic impact.

However, his public health officials came to him (or to Pence, it's not clear) with estimates that this would result in 200,000 deaths. Trump then made an about face and said there would be no relaxing of social distancing for now.

How that translated into 100,000 deaths being an aspirational goal is not entirely clear. I suspect that Trump may have taken the 200,000 figure and cut it in half. By putting out a big number he may hope to reset public expectations, so if he comes in well below that he can claim he did a terrific job.

Given that, I wouldn't take the 100,000 deaths figure as being a reliable estimate of what public health officials in the US actually expect to see. The latest death figures for the US that I have seen are a bit over 3,000 so far. That will very likely increase by quite a bit, but perhaps to nowhere near the 100,000 figure.

Given the above, I wouldn't panic just yet.
 
US president Trump is now saying that keeping the US COVID-19 death toll below 100,000 would be doing a "very good job".
Well NYC is turning into a rapidly expanding disaster and taking New Jersey with it. When they max our hospital beds, I expect the oldies and compromised to drop like flys in the big cities.
 
If you take the current Italy death rate (18 per 100,000 population) as of today's WHO data, that's more or less 1 in 5,000 of the population. Assume the USA follows the same trend, and that's 66,000 dead at the equivalent stage in the curve. 100-200,000 might well be the right ballpark if the USA follows the same curve as Italy to the end.

Time will tell...
 
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If you take the current Italy death rate (18 per 100,000 population) as of today's WHO data, that's more or less 1 in 5,000 of the population. Assume the USA follows the same trend, and that's 66,000 dead at this stage in the curve. 100-200,000 might well be the right ballpark if the USA follows the same curve as Italy to the end.

Time will tell...
Most of the United States will not follow the Italian curve.

I am worried about New York and New Jersey and Louisiana and Michigan. Other states will be moderately hit, and others like mine are to lame for this apocalypse business. We are failing the social distancing thing, but doing well.
 
Most of the United States will not follow the Italian curve.

I am worried about New York and New Jersey and Louisiana and Michigan. Other states will be moderately hit, and others like mine are to lame for this apocalypse business. We are failing the social distancing thing, but doing well.
Italy was led initially by a few small villages and still most of their cases are in Lombardy. Spain is only a day or two behind Italy too, with most of their cases centred on Madrid. Looking at the cases per 100,000 and deaths per 100,000, the curves all look starkly similar for many countries (just at different stages), even with the vagaries of testing. We are all human, after all.

I suspect the answer is somewhere between 'meh' and 'apocalypse'.
 
Italy was led initially by a few small villages and still most of their cases are in Lombardy. Spain is only a day or two behind Italy too, with most of their cases centred on Madrid. Looking at the cases per 100,000 and deaths per 100,000, the curves all look starkly similar for many countries (just at different stages), even with the vagaries of testing. We are all human, after all.

I suspect the answer is somewhere between 'meh' and 'apocalypse'.
The US has areas that are packed like sardines in a can, and others that are a bit sparse. Some states have excellent medical facilities, while others not so much. It will be an interesting pandemic. But the blue States are however taking it on the chin. Those vegan weenies should have eaten their chlorinated chicken and hormone riddled beef...
 

TamH70

MIA
In better news looks like HRH Prince William wants to return to the cockpit of the Airbus Helicopters H145 , go back and work for East Anglia AIR Ambulance out of EGSC in a bid to contribute to combatting the virus.

Good on him...


cheers
Well, to be blunt, he's got an heir and a spare, and the Princess Royal, Princess Anne, can run regent for the kids until they get old enough if the absolute worst happens and Charles, the Queen and William die.
 
Seems like the figures may get worse overnight, the UK has only been counting hospital deaths, not those that occur elsewhere. Spain has also been doing the same

Well according to the Daily Mail

Archie
 

Niamac

GCM
Right, I have had a look for it but because @DaManBugs limits his profile or is on the naughty step or something I can't find the original post. I have just managed to watch the rest of this youtube video he posted. I do recommend it, it is long but is quite informative.


While watching it on youtube this video appeared in the feed:


A much shorter video which I would also recommend, particularly if you are going to follow the link to the interactive graph it is largely based around here:

Covid Trends

This graph presents the progression of pandemic in different countries in a different way BUT it is away that requires a bit of knowledge to pick up on the nuances and the shortcomings which are well laid out in the associated video.

Edited for link issues.
Well I got the dataset from John Hopkins and sorted out the UK numbers. Here's where we are at present. It being statistics daily numbers are too small (statistically) and thus this is a weekly exercise.

1585643284481.png


There's a bit of a time lag obviously but it does not show much of change despite the "lock down" measures
 

Niamac

GCM
There's a bit of a time lag obviously but it does not show much of change despite the "lock down" measures
Update - I got another weeks data. Still no turn down

1585645266985.png
 
This will all change when they start to publish the full numbers not just those that have died in a hospital bed

Apparently they are not counting those that have died in a Care home / at home / or other residential setting ?

Archie
 

Niamac

GCM
Any chance of doing the same thing for deaths? With all the discussion about testing in some situations but not others I think deaths are probably more accurate (although that's not saying much).
Not really sure. Deaths should be more accurate but the UK has only counted at hospitals and many deaths will not necessarily correctly ascribed to CoV19. It would also be distorted by the NHS performance, which I suppose would be a useful thing to know, if it were accurate. I'll have a look.
 

Niamac

GCM
This will all change when they start to publish the full numbers not just those that have died in a hospital bed

Apparently they are not counting those that have died in a Care home / at home / or other residential setting ?

Archie
True, Archie. My GP friend reminds me that what the individual Doctor puts on a Death certificate is his opinion. There is no boxes for "Multiple Causes" or "Died of old age". The insistence in having a "cause of death" can lead to distortion of statistics i.e. the Doctor who routinely puts down Heart Failure when really the death was caused by coming to the natural end of life. Statistics don't lie but they do mislead sometimes.
 
Not really sure. Deaths should be more accurate but the UK has only counted at hospitals and many deaths will not necessarily correctly ascribed to CoV19. It would also be distorted by the NHS performance, which I suppose would be a useful thing to know, if it were accurate. I'll have a look.
Having just left Bangkok (flying visit to the Embassy) it crossed my mind that perhaps the very low death rates in other countries (ie. not UK) may be due to just this. I feel that in SE Asia as businesses close and people naturally go 'home' to their towns and villages of origin, the virus will be spread and deaths ensue. These deaths, if they are of the elderly, may not be attributed to this virus rather the body will be trotted over to the temple for a fairly prompt cremation. Unless the village head reports up his chain of command, the stats will be useless at a national level.
 

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