MERS Coronavirus warning

Winnet

Old-Salt
By the same token he has no doubt at all that those we have should currently be on health professionals. We are in what David Hackworth would have described as a "come as you are party". We can only proceed from where we are.
They should without a doubt. Likewise Mr Hackworth would be entirely correct in doing so.
 
Right, I have had a look for it but because @DaManBugs limits his profile or is on the naughty step or something I can't find the original post. I have just managed to watch the rest of this youtube video he posted. I do recommend it, it is long but is quite informative.


While watching it on youtube this video appeared in the feed:


A much shorter video which I would also recommend, particularly if you are going to follow the link to the interactive graph it is largely based around here:

Covid Trends

This graph presents the progression of pandemic in different countries in a different way BUT it is away that requires a bit of knowledge to pick up on the nuances and the shortcomings which are well laid out in the associated video.

Edited for link issues.
I should have added this couple of items in the original post.
  1. His attitude to the role of business in the development of testing.
  2. While he's keen on testing at least one category of person (inbound travellers I think) is expected to self isolate anyway even if their test is negative.
 
Right, I have had a look for it but because @DaManBugs limits his profile or is on the naughty step or something I can't find the original post. I have just managed to watch the rest of this youtube video he posted. I do recommend it, it is long but is quite informative.


While watching it on youtube this video appeared in the feed:


A much shorter video which I would also recommend, particularly if you are going to follow the link to the interactive graph it is largely based around here:

Covid Trends

This graph presents the progression of pandemic in different countries in a different way BUT it is away that requires a bit of knowledge to pick up on the nuances and the shortcomings which are well laid out in the associated video.

Edited for link issues.
The second video in particular is well worth watching, and it isn't too long for those who don't have much time to spare.

The thing to keep in mind with respect to the graph he shows though is that it is a log-log scale of total number of cases versus number of new cases. It won't show how fast things are changing and it won't show how well one country is doing versus another.

All countries on the graph will show roughly the same rate of growth. That seems to be the inherent infection rate of COVID-19. That is, the slope of the line is determined by how many additional new people each infected person spreads it to. That seems to be an inherent characteristic of the virus itself.

What it does show well, and what it is intended to show, is changes in growth rate. That is, when you see a country drop off the straight line and start to fall, that is when the growth of the pandemic has started to slow. That is due to the number of new cases falling very rapidly.

That doesn't mean the problem is over though, it just means it has stopped getting worse. However, the exponential growth during the spread phase of the pandemic also has an exponential fall during the decline phase. The graph shows two countries which have seen this decline phase so far, China and South Korea.

Every country will enter the decline phase sooner or later, either when everyone had had the disease or when "social distancing" measures have had a chance to have an effect.
 
As this little doozy goes for the lungs, has anyone looked at fatalities in smokers or ex-smokers Vs never smoked?

I mean, it's great and all I've got people telling me petrol pumps are going to kill me...
 
As this little doozy goes for the lungs, has anyone looked at fatalities in smokers or ex-smokers Vs never smoked?
Yes, preliminary studies show that the proportion of COVID patients who need ventilation and die and who smoke or smoked is elevated compared to their proportion of population as a whole.

But there's probably no point panic-stopping now as the lung damage is already done.

Mother in law smokes 40 per day and is aged 75 so I might be getting out of a Christmas visit this year.
 
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Schmoe

War Hero
As this little doozy goes for the lungs, has anyone looked at fatalities in smokers or ex-smokers Vs never smoked?

I mean, it's great and all I've got people telling me petrol pumps are going to kill me...
There’s been two reports about smoking, can not find the links.
Both implied that smoking makes situation worse by a factor of 10, however, one of them also implied that smokers seem more resistant to actually catching it in the first place.
Having smoked for over 35 years, I am certain that my suddenly stopping won’t make a difference, and have decided to carry on.
 
There is a world-wide shortage of the reagents (chemicals) needed for testing. A few countries like South Korea, Singapore, and a few others bought up much of the existing global stockpile ahead of other countries and so can use it up testing low-priority cases, but most countries have to ration their tests to make their own reagent stock last.

If a country uses up all their reagents now on low-priority cases, then they will be absolutely screwed later on when the pandemic is at its peak and they need to test high priority cases to clear ICU beds. More testing now could lead to catastrophe later unless they can replace their reagent stockpiles.

Currently countries are raiding veterinary supplies and other sources for reagents, and trying to set up new production sites to produce it. The latter takes time though, and won't happen overnight.

Everybody would like to test more, but the basic materials to do so are in short supply globally, and so rationing is in effect.
Absolutely but if you identify the people with it early you can isolate them. The key to this is stopping the spread.
 
There is a world-wide shortage of the reagents (chemicals) needed for testing. A few countries like South Korea, Singapore, and a few others bought up much of the existing global stockpile ahead of other countries and so can use it up testing low-priority cases, but most countries have to ration their tests to make their own reagent stock last.

If a country uses up all their reagents now on low-priority cases, then they will be absolutely screwed later on when the pandemic is at its peak and they need to test high priority cases to clear ICU beds. More testing now could lead to catastrophe later unless they can replace their reagent stockpiles.

Currently countries are raiding veterinary supplies and other sources for reagents, and trying to set up new production sites to produce it. The latter takes time though, and won't happen overnight.

Everybody would like to test more, but the basic materials to do so are in short supply globally, and so rationing is in effect.
Equally, we don't have the analysis capacity for mass testing.

A hospital I am familiar with has two machines to run the test and get the final results. These are usually used to provide a diagnosis for assorted illnesses to provide the correct treatment. Each machine can process 96 samples per day. This is usually more than enough for routine work, even over the winter. One machine is currently reserved for routine work, the other is dedicated to Covid19 testing.

The hospital is looking after 379,460 people in its catchment area, plus the catchment of another large hospital that sends its work through to them.
To test everyone it would take about ten years.

A Dr has someone on their bed with critical life threatening breathing difficulties. Is it Flu (Or some other illness, take your pick) or Covid19? They can be treated, but what is the right treatment for these symptoms.
They can either:
A) Get the results ASAP by the use of targeted testing on those that need it.
B) Submit a sample and wait a decade.
On mass testing that machine will spend its day turning out yes/no results for random people who've had a case of the sniffles. Meanwhile your critical case you have sitting in a bed gasping for breath, you have no idea what's wrong with him. It could be something you could treat, right now, and clear the bed, or it could be Covid19. You don't know, and won't for another ten years.

We could of course buy more machines... but would you not prefer that money goes towards PPE, or ventilators?
 

BaldBaBoon

War Hero
I do not know if the reports in the media are accurate in regards to Britain still receiving a sizeable number of flights direct from areas that are a virus epicentre like NYC.

But if these flights are landing with no health checks, no social distance on the journey over, if that is even possible on a plane, and then the passengers are effectively straight into the general population.......

How does that impact on our national strategy of self isolation, would it cause a blip....no noticeable effect or effectively have the potential of seriously effecting our casualties rate of increase/decrease.?

I would have thought that this makes a mockery of what we are trying to achieve, but I'm just a layman.
 
I do not know if the reports in the media are accurate in regards to Britain still receiving a sizeable number of flights direct from areas that are a virus epicentre like NYC.
Without passenger manifests it's impossible to confirm but reportedly the pax loads are very light and most of the flights are cargo-heavy to try to clear the backlog at KJFK.

As to why BA are still running A380s on the route, presumably it's simpler to keep to the rostered crews and equipment rather than changing things around during this chaos.
 
The second video in particular is well worth watching, and it isn't too long for those who don't have much time to spare.

The thing to keep in mind with respect to the graph he shows though is that it is a log-log scale of total number of cases versus number of new cases. It won't show how fast things are changing and it won't show how well one country is doing versus another.

All countries on the graph will show roughly the same rate of growth. That seems to be the inherent infection rate of COVID-19. That is, the slope of the line is determined by how many additional new people each infected person spreads it to. That seems to be an inherent characteristic of the virus itself.


What it does show well, and what it is intended to show, is changes in growth rate. That is, when you see a country drop off the straight line and start to fall, that is when the growth of the pandemic has started to slow. That is due to the number of new cases falling very rapidly.

That doesn't mean the problem is over though, it just means it has stopped getting worse. However, the exponential growth during the spread phase of the pandemic also has an exponential fall during the decline phase. The graph shows two countries which have seen this decline phase so far, China and South Korea.

Every country will enter the decline phase sooner or later, either when everyone had had the disease or when "social distancing" measures have had a chance to have an effect.
Well put, especially the bolded part.
 

Joker62

ADC
Book Reviewer
NHS smart cards that are used to access computer system are to be changed so can access all services. This is to help with redeployments.
Will it help with the shopping though?
 

Joker62

ADC
Book Reviewer
75% of those "economically inactive" are students, sick or acting as carers.
Some of the others are those who have retired before aged 65 (like what I did).

Probably leaves about a million and a half who don't want to work.
Students will have no excuse now, all Unis and colleges are shut.
 
Students will have no excuse now, all Unis and colleges are shut.
Don't I know it, the missus is a student and it's gone 10am, she's got a deadline to do an essay but doesn't want to get out of bed because it's too cold

It's a tough life being a student

Meanwhile my boss has gone on emergency leave whatever that is (Guessing it's the new name for compassionate leave???) and I'm facing death by powerpoint through so many more mindless meetings as I've got to do their job too
 

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