MERS Coronavirus warning

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LE
Book Reviewer
Caveat: I am in no way shape or form a medic.

Right, just thinking out loud to myself here: The Mrs. got an email this morning from someone she works with, that persons sister is a nurse in a US hospital. The nursey sister has been screening, admitting and dealing with infected patients and along the way has been exchanging info with other nurses in different hospitals. The info has included comparing patient history's, drugs and medicines being taken to see if there is any common factor for low or high infections.

[Slight side box here] UK people need to appreciate that a degree qualified registered nurse in the US has a more hands on medical involvement with patients than UK nurses do. Its just the way it is.

One noticed factor that has popped up with seriously infected patients here is that a noticeable number of them have recently taken an ibuprofen derived product. At first glance it appears that the virus loves noshing on ibuprofen, patients with a recent history of having taken ibuprofen have more of the virus floating around their system.

Like I said, Not a Medic, but I feel I ought to



I used to skydive in Pribram stopping off in Prague to take in the ambience. The ambience of a genuine CZ made Pilsner is glorious, if I were Or-stray-lee-yan I might describe it as an angel pissing on your tongue.
Correlation is not causation.

I'd guess that 80% of people with flu like symptoms would take something with ibuprofen in it...
 

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LE
Book Reviewer
I'm afraid that government numbers tell so many lies in such countries as to become almost meaningless.
And not just furrin numbers either..

When the ONS released it's new basket of goods to fiddle the inflation rate 5 years or so ago ( there weren't any actual hamsters in it, but the usual dodginess) I couldn't believe that all sorts of mongs would be tweeting how in touch with the modern world the dust museum was... Thought there had to be some upper limit on mongness in the general population.

Till I recognised a couple of names as people sitting round the corner from me.

Seems that half of the dust museum, the half that wanted promotion, took it upon themselves to act like a Russian bot factory.
 
Caveat: I am in no way shape or form a medic.

Right, just thinking out loud to myself here: The Mrs. got an email this morning from someone she works with, that persons sister is a nurse in a US hospital. The nursey sister has been screening, admitting and dealing with infected patients and along the way has been exchanging info with other nurses in different hospitals. The info has included comparing patient history's, drugs and medicines being taken to see if there is any common factor for low or high infections.

[Slight side box here] UK people need to appreciate that a degree qualified registered nurse in the US has a more hands on medical involvement with patients than UK nurses do. Its just the way it is.

One noticed factor that has popped up with seriously infected patients here is that a noticeable number of them have recently taken an ibuprofen derived product. At first glance it appears that the virus loves noshing on ibuprofen, patients with a recent history of having taken ibuprofen have more of the virus floating around their system.

Like I said, Not a Medic, but I feel I ought to



I used to skydive in Pribram stopping off in Prague to take in the ambience. The ambience of a genuine CZ made Pilsner is glorious, if I were Or-stray-lee-yan I might describe it as an angel pissing on your tongue.
This is a social media rumour that has been debunked in the mainstream media. There is no scientific evidence that ibuprofen will worsen COVID-19 symptoms. Your wife's friend should be more sceptical about things that she reads on Facebook.


OTTAWA – Health Canada is aware of reports, including on social media, that reference safety issues with the use of ibuprofen in COVID-19 cases. There is no scientific evidence that establishes a link between ibuprofen, or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and the worsening of COVID-19 symptoms. The Government of Canada is monitoring the situation closely, including reviewing new information and reports as they become available, and will take the appropriate action to help protect the health and safety of Canadians.
 

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LE
Book Reviewer
Eurozone Purchasing Manager's Index down to 28.4.

The lowest on record.
 
Caveat: I am in no way shape or form a medic.

Right, just thinking out loud to myself here: The Mrs. got an email this morning from someone she works with, that persons sister is a nurse in a US hospital. The nursey sister has been screening, admitting and dealing with infected patients and along the way has been exchanging info with other nurses in different hospitals. The info has included comparing patient history's, drugs and medicines being taken to see if there is any common factor for low or high infections.

[Slight side box here] UK people need to appreciate that a degree qualified registered nurse in the US has a more hands on medical involvement with patients than UK nurses do. Its just the way it is.

One noticed factor that has popped up with seriously infected patients here is that a noticeable number of them have recently taken an ibuprofen derived product. At first glance it appears that the virus loves noshing on ibuprofen, patients with a recent history of having taken ibuprofen have more of the virus floating around their system.

Like I said, Not a Medic, but I feel I ought to



I used to skydive in Pribram stopping off in Prague to take in the ambience. The ambience of a genuine CZ made Pilsner is glorious, if I were Or-stray-lee-yan I might describe it as an angel pissing on your tongue.
that is a social media rumour
 
Eurozone Purchasing Manager's Index down to 28.4.

The lowest on record.
As is every country's. UK now lower than the banking crisis back in 2008. US steepest decline since the same time.
Gonna take a long time for any of these to get back up.
 
Cycling to work this morning on a cycle lane on the road across a bridge. Some tw*t in lycra jogging along toward me in the same cycle lane on the main road instead of running on the pavement.

Started waving his arms for me to get out of the way...

Due to the traffic overtaking me I stayed in the cycle lane.

Told him that he was the one who decided to run in the road...
 
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Been having a bit of a rather difficult "What if" thinking which, I suspect, may annoy/upset some - anywho, here we go.

Having followed the 'stats from the government sites it appears to me that the total number of deaths within the population as a result of the control measures will be pretty much the same as if no control measures at all were imposed.

In essence, a group of the population who could reasonably be expected to die within the next 2 - 3 years will be dying earlier but the numbers remain about the same.

The purpose of the control regulations is to slow down the number of hospital admissions to prevent the system becoming overwhelmed (Well,that's the theory anyway) but as the numbers from London suggest that this is unavoidable.

Given the financial effects of the pandemic are going to be far more damaging globally in the short/medium/long term than the limited effects (numeric) on elements of the population who may well be dying earlier than expected would a better strategy to have done nothing from day 1 and simply letting the pandemic run it's swift and overwhelming course?
 
Given the financial effects of the pandemic are going to be far more damaging globally in the short/medium/long term than the limited effects (numeric) on elements of the population who may well be dying earlier than expected would a better strategy to have done nothing from day 1 and simply letting the pandemic run it's swift and overwhelming course?
Depends. What if the short but sharp course damaged the economy in a longer lasting way?
 
In essence, a group of the population who could reasonably be expected to die within the next 2 - 3 years will be dying earlier but the numbers remain about the same.
That is not really true though.

In fact, the opposite is the case.

For once I am actually going to compare COVID19 with flu but purely to get a handle on the numbers.

I posted the flu mortality rates up the thread. Off the top of my head the 2015/16 number was just under 30,000. That was with a case fatality ratio of 0.1.

The C19 deaths to date have a CFR of 0.2 between ages 20-50. They then rise rapidly in age bands from 1.4% up to 15% in the over 80s. That is to date and does not allow for health services to be overwhelmed, lack of ventilators, staff reductions etc.

So for the older segment of society C19 is anywhere between 14 and 150 times more lethal.

Certainly the lower age groups within that aged sector could not reasonably be expected to die in the next 2-3 years.. Many of them will though.
 
Been having a bit of a rather difficult "What if" thinking which, I suspect, may annoy/upset some - anywho, here we go.

Having followed the 'stats from the government sites it appears to me that the total number of deaths within the population as a result of the control measures will be pretty much the same as if no control measures at all were imposed.
In the case of the UK, that is because the plan was to have next to no measures to protect the general (non-vulnerable) population.

by the time the plan had changed the it had already spread around the population. Too late

In essence, a group of the population who could reasonably be expected to die within the next 2 - 3 years will be dying earlier but the numbers remain about the same.
so large numbers dying earlier is ok?

The purpose of the control regulations is to slow down the number of hospital admissions to prevent the system becoming overwhelmed (Well,that's the theory anyway) but as the numbers from London suggest that this is unavoidable.
see above... measures taken too late

Given the financial effects of the pandemic are going to be far more damaging globally in the short/medium/long term than the limited effects (numeric) on elements of the population who may well be dying earlier than expected would a better strategy to have done nothing from day 1 and simply letting the pandemic run it's swift and overwhelming course?
You forget a lot of younger healthier working people are going to be sick too, some in key essential services and some will become seriously ill (who would otherwise have been ok but for covid19).

Some businesses will be able to turn straight back on some won’t
 
Was just watching a report on the South Africa townships, 6 people sharing one room etc, no social distancing, weak medical infrastructures.
Pretty certain that this will be the main news as the virus takes hold in Africa in about three to four weeks. Does not look good at all.
 
Irish Government announcement last night:
2121 cases (of which 321 healthworkers)
419 hospitalised
59 in ICU
22 dead

from midnight last night for 2 weeks:

everyone to stay at home except
  • To travel for work if you are a healthcare professional, social care worker or provide another essential service.
  • To shop for essential food and household goods.
  • To attend medical appointments or collect medicines.
  • For vital family reasons, such as providing care to children or vulnerable people.
  • To take brief exercise (within 2km of your home).
  • For farming purposes.
Other measures announced by the Taoiseach include:

  • All public and private gathering of any number are prohibited.
  • Everybody over 70 years of age and people who are extremely medically vulnerable to ‘cocoon’, i.e. not leave their home.
  • Further range of non-essential shops and services to close.
  • All non-essential surgery and health procedures postponed.
  • No visits to hospitals or prisons unless permission is given on exceptional compassionate grounds.
  • Public transport to only be used by essential workers.
  • Local authorities to relax on-street public parking restrictions to meet travel needs of essential workers.
The list of essential services was still being finalised but independent understands they include:

  • Health, public health and social care workers;
  • Public and civil service personnel;
  • Those involved in production of foods and medicine;
  • Some financial services employees;
  • Journalists;
  • Utilities personnel such as ESB, Bord Gáis and Irish Water staff;
  • Transport workers like hauliers and bus/train drivers.




 
Irish Government announcement last night:
2121 cases (of which 321 healthworkers)
419 hospitalised
59 in ICU
22 dead

from midnight last night for 2 weeks:

everyone to stay at home except
  • To travel for work if you are a healthcare professional, social care worker or provide another essential service.
  • To shop for essential food and household goods.
  • To attend medical appointments or collect medicines.
  • For vital family reasons, such as providing care to children or vulnerable people.
  • To take brief exercise (within 2km of your home).
  • For farming purposes.
Other measures announced by the Taoiseach include:

  • All public and private gathering of any number are prohibited.
  • Everybody over 70 years of age and people who are extremely medically vulnerable to ‘cocoon’, i.e. not leave their home.
  • Further range of non-essential shops and services to close.
  • All non-essential surgery and health procedures postponed.
  • No visits to hospitals or prisons unless permission is given on exceptional compassionate grounds.
  • Public transport to only be used by essential workers.
  • Local authorities to relax on-street public parking restrictions to meet travel needs of essential workers.
The list of essential services was still being finalised but independent understands they include:

  • Health, public health and social care workers;
  • Public and civil service personnel;
  • Those involved in production of foods and medicine;
  • Some financial services employees;
  • Journalists;
  • Utilities personnel such as ESB, Bord Gáis and Irish Water staff;
  • Transport workers like hauliers and bus/train drivers.




Have they modified the testing regime further?
 
Have they modified the testing regime further?
In Ireland

until 13th March only testing those who were a close contact of a confirmed case or had travelled to an effected area

13-25 March anyone with at least 1 symptom

from 25 March, any tests that have already been order but which haven’t been completed have been cancelled unless you are from a priority group and have symptoms (priority of resources i assume)
  • close contacts of a confirmed case
  • healthcare workers who are in the frontline and have regular patient contact
  • those most at risk of severe infection such as people with diabetes, immunosuppressed, chronic lung disease, chronic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic renal disease, chronic liver disease and smokers
  • people who live with those in the above groups
  • staff and residents of nursing homes and other residential care settings and those in direct provision, homeless, Roma and travelling community settings where symptom management is difficult
  • pregnant women to ensure they are managed safely in hospital
 
The Scottish Secretary, Alister Jack, who is the Conservative MP for Dumfries and Galloway, says he has not been tested for the virus and his symptoms are a mild temperature and a cough.

“In the past 24 hours, I have developed mild symptoms associated with coronavirus," he said.

“In line with medical guidance, I am self-isolating and working from home.”
 
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