MERS Coronavirus warning

Oyibo

LE
There's "only" 477 deaths so far in the UK from COVID-19, so we shouldn't expect to see a spike in the death rate caused by it. The objective of the UK government of course is to avoid getting into the situation that Italy is in with multiple thousands of deaths.

If a spike is seen, then it will mean that things got out of control in the UK.
Depends on what you mean by 'out of control'. The ability to stop the spread? The ability of the NHS to treat those that need treatment? The ability to stop all deaths that prevent a spike in numbers? The ability to measure who has died of COVID-19 rather than primarily because of another condition? and so on.
 
We will pass them up by Sunday I would imagine. But I do take the Chinese numbers with a bag of salt.
See my previous post, You could easily surpass China by tomorrow.

The Chinese figures I would take seriously unless I've seen evidence otherwise. They got a clamp down on the spread before it went country-wide, and the majority of cases were confined to Hubei province. In the US it seems to be going country-wide (as it is elsewhere in the world).

In all cases throughout the world, the precise numbers of infections should be viewed in terms of rough magnitude and trend. Exact comparisons between countries will not be possible because there are too many differences when it comes to who gets tested.

In terms of total per capita rate of infection though, the US seems to be the same region as France and Germany, not Italy or Spain. What will matter in the coming days and weeks is whether the US are able to slow the rate of increase before they get to Italy type figures.

Having said that, parts of the US such as New York may end up with Italy-style problems.
 

ABNredleg

Old-Salt
Our city will go to a mandatory shelter at home on Friday for non-essential personnel. I, however, get the pleasure of still coming to work.

essential.jpg
 

triggerigger

War Hero
As of when I checked, the deaths in Portugal are now up to 60, and deaths per million are 6, which is virtually the same as the UK at 7. In terms of total cases per million, they have roughly twice the rate at the UK, although that figure needs to be taken with a great deal of caution as it will be greatly affected by how much testing is being done.

If we ignore the micro-states, the countries which have deaths per million rates in the double digits or greater are:
  1. Italy - 124
  2. Spain - 87
  3. Iran - 27
  4. Netherlands - 25
  5. France - 20
  6. Switzerland - 20
  7. Belgium - 19
The UK, Sweden, Denmark, Portugal, and Iceland have deaths per million rates of 6 or 7.

And while we're listing stats, the US has now surpassed Spain and is at number 3 in terms of total number of cases, at 69,041, and this is despite their problems with limited testing. At this rate they could easily surpass Italy (who are only 5,345 ahead of them) within days, and even China (81,285) is in striking distance if they keep it up.

No numbers from the chinks that are remotely believable I suspect they are never going to be known
 
Depends on what you mean by 'out of control'. The ability to stop the spread? The ability of the NHS to treat those that need treatment? The ability to stop all deaths that prevent a spike in numbers? The ability to measure who has died of COVID-19 rather than primarily because of another condition? and so on.
"Control" as in to slow and then reverse the spread before the UK gets into an Italy-type situation where the health care system is overwhelmed. If that is avoided then there may be no significant spike in the total number of annual deaths from all causes.

The same infection control measures that are inhibiting the spread of COVID-19 are probably also inhibiting the spread of garden variety seasonal flu, meaning we will likely see fewer deaths from the latter.
 
See my previous post, You could easily surpass China by tomorrow.

The Chinese figures I would take seriously unless I've seen evidence otherwise. They got a clamp down on the spread before it went country-wide, and the majority of cases were confined to Hubei province. In the US it seems to be going country-wide (as it is elsewhere in the world).

In all cases throughout the world, the precise numbers of infections should be viewed in terms of rough magnitude and trend. Exact comparisons between countries will not be possible because there are too many differences when it comes to who gets tested.

In terms of total per capita rate of infection though, the US seems to be the same region as France and Germany, not Italy or Spain. What will matter in the coming days and weeks is whether the US are able to slow the rate of increase before they get to Italy type figures.

Having said that, parts of the US such as New York may end up with Italy-style problems.
I expect a mixed bag to be honest. You are correct parts of the country will be hit hard. NYC is our perfect example. While other areas will skate bye, in good shape.

We will have to agree to disagree about the Chinese numbers.

I would imagine many of my own countrymen however, are going to bevery attracted to flyover country when this is all said and done.
 

ancienturion

LE
Book Reviewer
Not that simple:

"Nearly a third of TfL's staff are now off sick or self-isolating - including train drivers and crucial control centre staff.

"Many of them have years of safety-critical training in order to run specific lines - so it is simply not possible to replace them with others."


London Underground coronavirus row: Sadiq Khan and Government at loggerheads as Tube remains packed
Of course they're off sick, that's what a lot of them do anyway. And now they've found a new one called self isolating.
 

triggerigger

War Hero
Of course they're off sick, that's what a lot of them do anyway. And now they've found a new one called self isolating.
Typical behavior. My best mate is hgv and 'not from London ' working absolutely flat out. He could stay at home and get paid 80 %
 
We will pass them up by Sunday I would imagine. But I do take the Chinese numbers with a bag of salt.
I agree ref China. Having just looked at the figures from Europe and the USA the data from China does seem a bit..er... suspect, to put it mildly.
 
Typical behavior. My best mate is hgv and 'not from London ' working absolutely flat out. He could stay at home and get paid 80 %
My son too. He has also heard from his boss on Monday, that the Bundesregierung has loosened the laws and he is now allowed to drive his truck on Sundays as well. The upside is that he's loving the idea that his job is more essential than mine.
 
Of course they're off sick, that's what a lot of them do anyway. And now they've found a new one called self isolating.
Wanking From Home probably being nearer the truth
 

Oyibo

LE
"Control" as in to slow and then reverse the spread before the UK gets into an Italy-type situation where the health care system is overwhelmed. If that is avoided then there may be no significant spike in the total number of annual deaths from all causes.

The same infection control measures that are inhibiting the spread of COVID-19 are probably also inhibiting the spread of garden variety seasonal flu, meaning we will likely see fewer deaths from the latter.
Klar!

I reckon that in a few years time the stats (accurate, relevant or not) will be picked over by researchers for decades. I suspect that the UK will not come out too badly in hindsight: A clear strategy has been chosen rather than bean-counting of incomplete stats (as opposed to that bastion of truth, China).

But as the soup waiter would say, 'time will tell'.
 
If the unfortunate could be good enough to put up their county/town etc, it would be appreciated as I can compare them with my nightly sweep of the county infection stats.
Cheers in advance.
 
As of when I checked, the deaths in Portugal are now up to 60, and deaths per million are 6, which is virtually the same as the UK at 7. In terms of total cases per million, they have roughly twice the rate at the UK, although that figure needs to be taken with a great deal of caution as it will be greatly affected by how much testing is being done.

If we ignore the micro-states, the countries which have deaths per million rates in the double digits or greater are:
  1. Italy - 124
  2. Spain - 87
  3. Iran - 27
  4. Netherlands - 25
  5. France - 20
  6. Switzerland - 20
  7. Belgium - 19
The UK, Sweden, Denmark, Portugal, and Iceland have deaths per million rates of 6 or 7.

And while we're listing stats, the US has now surpassed Spain and is at number 3 in terms of total number of cases, at 69,041, and this is despite their problems with limited testing. At this rate they could easily surpass Italy (who are only 5,345 ahead of them) within days, and even China (81,285) is in striking distance if they keep it up.

UK changed the timing of data announcements yesterday. The UK figures yesterday only represent an 8 hour period and not a full 24 hour one.
Today's figures do.
Increase in cases: 2129, Increase in deaths 115.
 
The same infection control measures that are inhibiting the spread of COVID-19 are probably also inhibiting the spread of garden variety seasonal flu, meaning we will likely see fewer deaths from the latter.
I think it's also reasonable to assume that some of the COVID-19 deaths might have been flu casualties if the coronavirus hadn't got to them first. To what extent either factor will affect the totals I have no idea.
 
China will shut their borders to all foreigners on Saturday, including those with visa and residency permits, in a bid to keep new COVID-19 cases out. Virtually all new cases in China recently have come from abroad.
China prepares to close borders to foreigners, fearing 2nd wave of COVID-19
Over the past weeks, virtually all new cases – around 500 – have come from abroad, with just a handful of local infections, down to zero on some days.

In response, China announced Thursday that it is closing its borders to all foreigners, including holders of visas and residency permits, effective as of 12 a.m. local time Saturday.

A statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was doing so "in light of the outbreak situation and the practices of other countries."
The main concern now in China is for a "second wave" of infections coming from outside China as the virus spreads around the world.
Still, they reflect China's greatest fear: a return of the epidemic, bouncing back from Europe, the Middle East and North America, where infections are now almost five-fold greater. There are now 390,000 confirmed cases outside China versus 81,000 inside.
Experts in China see a second wave as being inevitable as quarantine restrictions are lifted. To contain this will require continuing border restrictions and widespread testing and tracking of cases in China to keep it as a containment problem and not allow it to spread into a general outbreak again.
"For China, I think it's too premature to celebrate," said Benjamin Cowling, the head of the epidemiology department at the University of Hong Kong. "There will be a second wave; it's unavoidable."

How big a wave? That depends how successful Chinese officials are at catching the first cases, Cowling said. Aside from testing at borders, they need to track silent carriers, those who don't show obvious symptoms but can spread the virus.
Te above is important, as what we are seeing in China today is what Europe and North America can expect to see a couple of months from now. We need to study the situation there closely in order to prepare our own planning.

According to a public health expert at King's College in London, successive waves of infection will continue to happen until either a vaccine is developed, or until enough of the population has become infected for "herd immunity" to develop. The latter will happen when 60 to 80 percent of the population have had the disease.
But the virus is spreading faster than expected, says Kenji Shibuya, a public health expert at King's College in London and a former chief of health policy at the World Health Organization,

"Unless you shut down all the borders, you will still have a risk everywhere," he said.

In the end, he said, the only way to stop successive outbreaks — third or fourth or fifth waves — is for all societies to develop what's called herd immunity, and that's only possible after 60 to 80 per cent of the population have had the disease — or once there is a vaccine.
 
Chekia, Czecki, TSceka fack it, the bit between Germany and Slovakia, is giving away 30million pints of decent beer as the breweries are closing down due to the boozers shutting.

Cracking plan.
 

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