MERS Coronavirus warning

Known deaths and known recoveries.
Also, by quoting a 58% death ratio you are assuming a total sample group of 143 people which, clearly, is not the case.

NB the numbers have changed since your post

Far more useful to calculate the mortality rate for the total known cases (44747 so far and 107 deaths) which gives a mortality rate of 2.4%

I expect that the real number is somewhere between 2.4% and 58% but all the indications, so far are that it is very much at the lower end of that range.
There is something awry in those numbers. Either the 44k is wrong or the 107 is wrong as the percentage rate there is 0.239%.
 
Shows just how fast this is going that the numbers have indeed changed.. 100 dead now in Hubei, the number who have recovered has gone up by just 4 and the total number of cases almost doubled to 2700.

Meanwhile there is a video of a doctor telling his patient that he almost certainly has it but they don't have any testing kits left.

First cases in Germany and the ivory coast too.
See my earlier on Chinese in Ghana. Cote d'Ivoire is next door to Ghana where there are encampments of Chinese miners. The encampments are pretty self contained and even have "labourers" with AK47's doing barrier duty so if anything were kicking off in these places it would be pretty much behind closed doors.

Note: Ghana lives with the Choggie presence because the Ghanaian Govt has Billions in loans from China.
 

Sammer

War Hero
Local news are reporting 4 suspected cases here in Peru. Three Chinese tourists from Wuhan and their Peruvian translator.
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
See my earlier on Chinese in Ghana. Cote d'Ivoire is next door to Ghana where there are encampments of Chinese miners. The encampments are pretty self contained and even have "labourers" with AK47's doing barrier duty so if anything were kicking off in these places it would be pretty much behind closed doors.

Note: Ghana lives with the Choggie presence because the Ghanaian Govt has Billions in loans from China.
Often the Chinese eventually negotiate sovereignty with African governments in return for these 'loans'. So I'd guess that the chances of them reporting cases to the host country are practically nill.

Meanwhile unless they are also shipping prostitutes along with the miners, refinery workers and the like....
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
Local news are reporting 4 suspected cases here in Peru. Three Chinese tourists from Wuhan and their Peruvian translator.
If this were a game of Plague Inc you'd just be waiting on Madagascar and Greenland...
 
Known deaths and known recoveries.
Also, by quoting a 58% death ratio you are assuming a total sample group of 143 people which, clearly, is not the case.

NB the numbers have changed since your post

Far more useful to calculate the mortality rate for the total known cases (4474 so far and 107 deaths) which gives a mortality rate of 2.4%

I expect that the real number is somewhere between 2.4% and 58% but all the indications, so far are that it is very much at the lower end of that range.

Not really observing anything other than that with the confirmed cases the statistics show a greater chance of dying than recovering.
Whether that remains the same or not is a different matter but looking at the recovery figures so far the odds aren't great if you've got it and are being treated

The several thousand confirmed cases have not yet reached conclusion, on the confirmed cases that have reached conclusion more have died than recovered......
 
We don't know how many people with minimal symptoms have recovered, so the dead:recovered ratio isn't really clear yet.

The R0, fatality rate, duration of severe illness all help model the spread.

It's interesting that the Chinese army could have put up a 1000 bed field hospital in tents by now if the intention was simply cohorting and isolating infected but not very ill cases for a few days bed rest.

Going to the bother of building a proper hospital makes me wonder about the level of intended treatment (as well as just how economical with the truth the Chinese are being)

If they're making a 1000 bed intensive care unit, we're in big trouble when this reaches the UK....
It was more of an idle observation that the recovery rate isn't looking great so far.

Personally I think China is still underplaying it.
You don't isolate 56 million people without very serious cause.....
 
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You did notice whose scientists confirmed this, did you?
Yes indeed; and now the counter-conspiracy theories are getting into full stride.

'It may just be a coincidence.

'But the deadly coronavirus outbreak now sweeping the world began 30km from China’s most advanced viral research laboratories – the Wuhan Institute. The Washington Times quoted former Israeli intelligence officer Dany Shoham as claiming The Wuhan Institute of Virology is part of a secret biological weapons program. “Certain laboratories in the institute have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development, in Chinese (biological weapons), at least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility,” he asserted without corroborating evidence. Mr Shoham says he was a Mossad lieutenant colonel specialist in biological and chemical warfare. But so far he’s the only apparent expert to make such a link.

'Similar stories have begun circulating in China. Only there, the claims — which are not censored under China’s strict information management regime — assert the virus is the result of a US germ warfare conspiracy. “There is no evidence that it was a bioweapon, and any claims that it is wilfully spreads misinformation and is incredibly irresponsible,” warns MIT security studies professor Vipin Narang.'


 
This morning i had to nip across town on an errand, so took the pushbike
as I rounded a corner a large family group of Chinese came out of a small terraced house dragging suitcases ( with Airport tags on) and piled into a massive hired people carrier
I reckon about 12 in the group
they all had facemasks on ??
perhaps they had been at the races yesterday
they certainly moved quickly, slammed the bags into the back and threw the kids into the car
and then motored away looking guilty
I noted the number just in case we have a massive outbreak of death in the area
on the way back I saw a mate who lives in the same road
told him about it
ye he said the reason they look guilty is its an Airbnb place 2 bedrooms one loo and a small kitchen/diner
he said another lot had already left and reckoned about 20 were crammed in the house all week !!!
he hates the owner any way, and reckons the bog will be blocked solid
A mini bus full of Chinese tourists tried that trick with a holiday cottage of my old mans , they didn't know he lived near by , he gave them the option of paying an extra £300 or fcuk off , they reluctantly paid.
 
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The building of the hospital with the hundreds of diggers seemingly moving dirt backwards and forwards seems a bit odd.

Wouldn’t converting some warehouses be a better solution?
It looked like showmanship to me.... unless really they were burying the casualties.
 
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Looking at the hospital overcrowding situation in China I do wonder if a good proportion if many are what doctors and people who plan for pandemics call the "worried well". People may present fearful they have developed the new plague when they simply have a common cold or a touch of an ordinary flu strain. The worried well can overcome the resources available to treat the seriously ill.

A number of years ago (2005?-2007?) Harvard sent me to evaluate a US Navy Medical Corps program to built surge capacity into the US Navy hospitals both within CONUS and around the globe. The intent was to prepare for both pandemics and bio-warfare. The program took 3 days of a Navy team going to a hospital and working with the hospital staff to help them develop surge capacity. It was a great program led by a Nurse Corps Captain. I went to Great Lakes Naval Station which was the next medical center to be visited*.

In an event where such surge capacity is needed the limit on numbers of isolation rooms can be ignored. If all patients are coming are infected the entire place is an isolation ward. We noticed that all of the single bed rooms have two sets of oxygen, air and suction outlets and two sets of electrical "red sockets"** and could be double rooms as soon as beds are wheeled in. The hospital had a large surgical recovery room that was very much underutilized (during my visit one bed in use in a 32 bed recovery area. The recovery room has all the same equipment as the intensive care facility (wired to heart and respiration monitoring etc) and would double the intensive care capacity. I asked where they would be able to get all the extra supplies and equipment in a timely way and they said "just call Cardinal Healthcare" (largest US medical supply company). I thought they were overconfident is assuming they could get supplies quickly. As drove out of the base gate I made a mistake and took the first right instead of the second and realized I was passing 5 really huge warehouses which all had Cardinal Healthcare signs. Great Lakes is adjacent to the main Cardinal logistics center.

It was a great program that could have played a major role in building surge capacity for pandemics and disasters. Sadly a few years later Mr Obama got elected and started cutting military budgets and around the world military military hospitals were closed. Now Great Lakes has no hospital, just a clinic and patients are sent to civilian hospitals for care.

*sadly, when I scheduled my visit to a Naval Hospital they had just finished doing the program in Hawaii and Naples Italy. Would have been more fun than a Chicago suburb.

** Realized this might be cryptic, no idea how the UK does this but in US hospitals use red sockets, connected to the backup generators for life support equipment and other sockets for TV's etc.
 
Most nuclear plants don’t have bogs on the active side. You have to go through decontamination checks, get frisked and wash before you can go to the bog.

A few years back I was filling my car up at petrol station. Some massive scary looking geezer walks up to me and says “Scuse me mate, can I have a word?”

Immediately I’m thinking, “oh ****, what’s about to happen, I’m about to get mugged or something.”

What he said next completely took me by surprise.

”I’m a biochemist and I’m trying to spread the word about testicular cancer. One of the biggest causes is handling your nether region with hydrocarbons on your hands. Car mechanics have one of the highest rates of testicular cancer out there. Please please please, wear the plastic gloves when you’re filling up your car. Especially if it’s a diesel.”

And so I have ever since.

Of course he might’ve just been talking bollox.

Probably a salesman for the plastic glove company.
Bladder cancer as well, a major cause is diesel / benzene handling.
 

ThunderBox

On ROPS
On ROPs
Morning All,
Someone I know here just sent me this.
I can't/don't eat spicy food and very little fried scoff. Love oranges though, so I should be alright then;).
Lost me at the "lets continue to pray" luckily it was at the end of the advice.

Have any Indians contracted this yet? They are a filthy bunch who like spicy food.
 
A friend pointed out that the real problem occurs with critical mass. Looking after contagious people is labour intensive and highly skilled. Sooner or later you run out of carers.

If the numbers build up people start pissing and crapping themselves, and starving to death, lying on the corridor floors.

When you get to that point the death rate rises exponentially.
 

BaldBaBoon

War Hero
It will take a copper who gets spat at to actually sue both the met and Dick for failing to provide the adequate equipment for him/her to safely carry out their duty, and for failing to comply with health and safety and duty of care issues at work.
I hope the fed are already considering this.
Whereas the officers in the British Transport Police are issued spit hoods and can use them as the situation dictates.

The amount of people walking round and hawking up a mouthful of phlegm and spitting it out in public areas with no shame or censure is really hideous, apart from being gipping its obviously a health hazard.
 

ThunderBox

On ROPS
On ROPs
Thank sports people who feel the need to clear their nose and throat at every occasion on the pitch and an overall lack of shame being impressed on children.

Should be fined and shamed like letting your dogs shit in public and not picking it up.

OK it may not be enforceable but it might shame a few scummers to stop doing it, I doubt it though.
 

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