MERS Coronavirus warning

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
And from the Telegraph....


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If you think a weekly shop is faffy, now imagine you’re prepping for Armaggedon for a month in unknown, tinned-food territory. The bright side is at least it’s cheap - necessary, given I ordered:

  • 45 cans of meat
  • 25 cans of fruit
  • 50 cans of vegetables
  • 17 tins and packets of beans and chickpeas
  • 15 bags of rice
  • 8 bags of porridge
  • 5 jars of honey
  • 5 bottles of antibac liquid soap (hand gel was out of stock)
  • 1 big packet of table salt
  • 1 giant box of laundry detergent
  • 1 giant pack of loo roll
Should have saved her quite a bit of money - when the zombie apocalypse doesn't materialise, she won't need to go to the supermarket for at least 6 months...

Wordsmith
 

PFGEN

GCM
Some panic buying has already started here in NL and still no cases signalled here. Ibubruffen has been missing from the shelves for a couple of weeks. There isn't a FFP3 face mask to be had unless your prepared to pay 10 times the price with a good chance that you'll never see your purchase. In a rather cynical move the government is telling the great unwashed that an FFP2 mask is what is needed. Given recent debates in parliament they'd be quite happy to see a cull of the population over the age of 50.

Never thought I'd consider prepping but might as well get some stuff organised. A lot of gas and electricity is imported so that will probably go first. Ground water here is excellent and the system can run without maintenance. Barbecue runs on gas and there's enough of that for a couple of months. Fuel for the car will probably go early but apart from bikes a lot of us have horses here so that's transport fixed (most of the kids learn to ride before they learn to swim).

For foodstuffs think compo and what they would take on an Antarctic expedition. Tinned stuff that can be eaten warm or cold. It usually has a shelf life of a couple of years plus. So that's tinned fish, meat, veggies and fruit. Currently stocking up before people's inner Italian takes over. Freezer filled but its only a small one. Other dry stuffs including oatmeal and oatcakes. I find damp oatmeal keeps longer than damp rice. A few candles, I don't mind the dark and have practiced moving round the house without light (old habit). Lidl had bog roll on special the other week so I'm well stocked in that area.

Still need to try and get some new canisters for the respirator. I'm also rather envious of the various gun cabinets on display. If things get really bad then something might need to be liberated. The local scroates have entire arsenals.
 

ExREME..TECH

On ROPS
On ROPs

ExREME..TECH

On ROPS
On ROPs
Some panic buying has already started here in NL and still no cases signalled here. Ibubruffen has been missing from the shelves for a couple of weeks. There isn't a FFP3 face mask to be had unless your prepared to pay 10 times the price with a good chance that you'll never see your purchase. In a rather cynical move the government is telling the great unwashed that an FFP2 mask is what is needed. Given recent debates in parliament they'd be quite happy to see a cull of the population over the age of 50.

Never thought I'd consider prepping but might as well get some stuff organised. A lot of gas and electricity is imported so that will probably go first. Ground water here is excellent and the system can run without maintenance. Barbecue runs on gas and there's enough of that for a couple of months. Fuel for the car will probably go early but apart from bikes a lot of us have horses here so that's transport fixed (most of the kids learn to ride before they learn to swim).

For foodstuffs think compo and what they would take on an Antarctic expedition. Tinned stuff that can be eaten warm or cold. It usually has a shelf life of a couple of years plus. So that's tinned fish, meat, veggies and fruit. Currently stocking up before people's inner Italian takes over. Freezer filled but its only a small one. Other dry stuffs including oatmeal and oatcakes. I find damp oatmeal keeps longer than damp rice. A few candles, I don't mind the dark and have practiced moving round the house without light (old habit). Lidl had bog roll on special the other week so I'm well stocked in that area.

Still need to try and get some new canisters for the respirator. I'm also rather envious of the various gun cabinets on display. If things get really bad then something might need to be liberated. The local scroates have entire arsenals.
Cough, Coffee Shops
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
Both those points assume that pneumonia occurs in all cases. Have we any evidence of that so far?
The medical study I linked to up thread which detailed the symptoms of the first 4021 patients in Wuhan.

95% of them developed pneumonia.
 
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Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
Another study of the first 4021 cases... Which includes the above study of 1099...




So now instead of 79%, about 95% of all patients develop pneumonia...



That BBC program was interesting as the R0 was set to a mere 1.8. And the fatality rate at 2%.

So this spreads and order of magnitude faster than the Spanish Flu outbreak a hundred years ago and is at least twice as deadly.

Seems that males over 60 have fatality rates approaching 10%.

I suspect this will be due to mainly male party aparatchiks getting preferred diagnosis and treatment, coupled with there being more men than women in China. The proles aren't even being tested. Just locked ito their homes or chucked into a sportshall to die.

Still, 25.5% of people getting severe pneumonia is crippling in many ways on a policy basis... Even if they recover it likely takes months. They'll be off work and contagious.

When you have severe pneumonia @Goatman how many other cases like yours do you think they could have dealt with at any one time?

Oh and bear in mind that positive tests are now not being reported unless they also develop symptoms.
Interesting that it was merely a statistical breakdown of the clinical notes for the first 4021 patients, though it has been withdrawn..

Our manuscript was based on surveillance cases of COVID-19 identified before January 26, 2020. As of February 20, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases in mainland China has reached 18 times of the number in our manuscript. While the methods and the main conclusions in our original analyses remain solid, we decided to withdraw this preprint for the time being, and will replace it with a more up-to-date version shortly.
I don't really recall any conclusions other than a calculation of the potential R0.
 

ADBO

LE
I'm a lazy twat and can't be bothered (nor have the time) to scroll through 120 pages; but is there a model showing death by age (group)?

VMT in advance for someone who is far more adept than me at finding stuff out.
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
So basically a disease with a relatively low mortality rate, the spread of which can be restricted by some common sense precautions.

The bubonic plague it ain't.
Think you are confusing mortality and fatality.

The mortality rate is the number in the general population who die of something.. We won't have a clue what this number is for quite some time yet.

Fatality is the number who contract it who die.

Morbidity is also important...

The choice of bubonic plague wasn't a great one either, whilst I don't doubt that we have been culturally enriched by the odd bubonic carrier it's fatality rate assuming treatment really isn't that high these days....
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
I'm a lazy twat and can't be bothered (nor have the time) to scroll through 120 pages; but is there a model showing death by age (group)?

VMT in advance for someone who is far more adept than me at finding stuff out.

  • Age distribution (N = 44 672)
    • ≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)
    • 30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)
    • 20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)
    • 10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)
    • <10 years: 1% (416 cases)
  • Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)
    • Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
    • Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
    • Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
  • Case-fatality rate
    • 2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)
    • 14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)
    • 8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)
    • 49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)
  • Health care personnel infected
    • 3.8% (1716 of 44 672)
    • 63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)
    • 14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)
    • 5 deaths


Yet in the previous study quoted above 95% of the first 4021 developed pneumonia.

Quite an interesting definition of mild.
 
And from the Telegraph....


View attachment 452333

Should have saved her quite a bit of money - when the zombie apocalypse doesn't materialise, she won't need to go to the supermarket for at least 6 months...

Wordsmith
What you need to consider though is that the supply chain from field to supermarket shelf has 5 days worth in it. Most supermarket receive stuff daily and tinned stuff is gone within 48 hrs with the shelf space waiting for its next re-supply, fruit, veggies and bakery items tend to be delivered even more often.

Some years ago there was a presentation given to Parliament outlining the effects of an event on the nations pantry's. Basically shelves in supermarkets would be totally stripped out within 4 days, on the fifth all hell would break loose. I think the report, or article resulting from it was called Five Days to Anarchy.

I did the county emergency management thing as a volunteer, well my Inspector told me to volunteer, and I did a few courses and exercises. Food and fuel shortage is a huge thing in times of national emergency. You don't want to be arriving at the supermarket when all that is left is the own brand kitchen towels, or joining a fuel queue to only be allowed to buy 3 gallons. In Florida the State authorities encourage you to have a supply of food and a go bag on hand in the event of a hurricane or other natural disaster, likewise the parts of Texarrse where tornados hit.

I keep a months worth of tinned goods, rice, flour and pasta on hand, along with some meat in the freezer - no survival shit, just stuff I would buy and use ordinarily. Being me, I also always have around 50K rounds of ammo for my sporting activities that could be used for more intense social encounters should it ever come to it - hopefully not. I use face masks and gloves when working on the house, or applying insecticide around the house outside - so I have stocked up on some extras.

You just have to look at the panic buying and queues outside supermarkets in S Korea, China and Italy to see how bad it can get. I saw the local supermarkets where I lived in the UK stripped of all their bottled water in under an hour when the local water supply was contaminated and had to be switched off for 24 hours. In Florida as soon as there is a hurricane warning the tourists all rush to the supermarkets and buy everything that is not nailed down or glued to the wall.

Stocking up may not be macho, but as long as you only biy stuff you would ordinarily buy it should not be an issue.
 
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Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
I'm a lazy twat and can't be bothered (nor have the time) to scroll through 120 pages; but is there a model showing death by age (group)?

VMT in advance for someone who is far more adept than me at finding stuff out.
If you don't trust the Chinese stats then there has been a study of the Diamond Princess Cruise ship...


Basically over 20% of all coffin dodgers got it, plus 5 to 10% of all other age groups.
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer

In this patient sample, difference in detection rate for initial CT (50/51 [98%, 95% CI 90-100%]) patients was greater than first RT-PCR (36/51 [71%, 95%CI 56-83%]) patients (p<.001).
Or in English... The test they've been using doesn't work.

Or rather it only works 71% of the time.

Which probably explains why they've been using chest CT scans instead to diagnose in China, though a diagnosis of such is surely one of viral pneumonia... So how on earth do they figure that 80% of the cases are mild?
 

Funbaby

Old-Salt
It has some DNA strands in common with HIV. However, so do many other viruses. Hardly surprising as they all probably have a common ancestor.

The paper pitching this HIV argument is printed in a non-peer reviewed online journal and has been slaughtered by academics on the grounds of shoddy research.

HIV treatments probably help because, when it comes down to it, they are mostly retrovirals.

Details here: Claims of HIV Protein Sequences in nCoV 2019 Coronavirus
Pendant corner; it’s a RNA based virus; not DNA.
 
There was an article on the telly news earlier and I caught that someone has a possible drug in the works ready for first stage testing in 42 days.
 

Funbaby

Old-Salt


Or in English... The test they've been using doesn't work.

Or rather it only works 71% of the time.

Which probably explains why they've been using chest CT scans instead to diagnose in China, though a diagnosis of such is surely one of viral pneumonia... So how on earth do they figure that 80% of the cases are mild?
First generation of the test; should be relatively simple to get up to the magic 95% detection rate.

A RT-PCR assay is going to be the best way to screen large amount of patients. Easy to automate and results in a few hours. CT scans not so much...
 

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