Merkel to win in Germany?

Auld-Yin

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#1
Now that France has their presidential elections out of the way, bar the horse trading, it is time to look to Germany and what is happening there.

Regional elections were held on 7 May and Merkel came out of these on top, against what had been expected. This puts her CDU Party in the lead for the German general election in September and to a fourth term of office for Merkel.

Some people in UK were hoping that she would be struggling to hold on to power thus weakening her position as the powerhouse of the EU. This does not look likely now and indeed she may come out of this election stronger and able to devote time to dealing with the EU rather than domestic politics. Might not be great for Brexit unless Angela decided to help influence negotiations calming down the Juncker-style hard approach allowing for a softer Brexit than anticipated.

Anyway, this vote takes place in September when the Brexit negotiations will start to have real meaning.

I know it is the Sun but this article does give a simple look at the German election process and party standings
When is the German Federal Election 2017 and will Merkel win again?
 
#2
Merkel's conservatives could govern with Greens, FDP-German poll
She may be looking for a 'three way' (okay....) coalition with FDP, Greens and her CDU party. A 'Jamaica coalition' (hmmm....):
Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives could form a three-way coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the pro-environment Greens after a September parliamentary election, a poll released by the Forsa Institute on Wednesday showed.

Such a "Jamaica coalition" - a reference to the black, yellow and green colors of the Jamaican national flag - is already under discussion in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein after Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) scored a decisive victory there on Sunday.
 
#3
Germans like continuity and the status quo not change for changes' sake. The only think it seems Merkel has messed up on is immigration and I doubt that's enough to bring her down.
 

Auld-Yin

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#4
German politics are very strange. A coalition between Conservative (Merkel) and the Green Party would not be seen as a comfortable one here. It was bad enough with Tory/Lib Dems.

Mind you, the Green Party in Germany seems to be a more sensible one than the moon-howlers in the UK.
 
#5
Could it be that the Germans are more tolerant than us Brits when it comes to identifying the need for migrant workers to do the jobs that our kids won't do? A Merkel win will guarantee a stronger EU and a more difficult exit for the UK (imo).
 

Auld-Yin

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#6
Could it be that the Germans are more tolerant than us Brits when it comes to identifying the need for migrant workers to do the jobs that our kids won't do? A Merkel win will guarantee a stronger EU and a more difficult exit for the UK (imo).
Perhaps a stronger EU, or at least a stronger hand at the helm, could mean a smoother exit from the EU with wins on both sides?
 
#8
Merkel will win in Germany. The Germans I've met are very uncomfortable with anything that could be misconstrued as being vaguely right wing. It almost seems the lever to use.
 
#9
Could it be that the Germans are more tolerant than us Brits when it comes to identifying the need for migrant workers to do the jobs that our kids won't do? A Merkel win will guarantee a stronger EU and a more difficult exit for the UK (imo).
Has always been so. Back in the 70's all the shït jobs were done by Turks.
 
#10
Merkel will win in Germany. The Germans I've met are very uncomfortable with anything that could be misconstrued as being vaguely right wing. It almost seems the lever to use.
I've noticed they even refer to people protesting against the open door immigration policy they brought in as extreme right wing. They have some fairly oppressive views in regards to free speech too.
 
#11
German politics are very strange. A coalition between Conservative (Merkel) and the Green Party would not be seen as a comfortable one here. It was bad enough with Tory/Lib Dems.

Mind you, the Green Party in Germany seems to be a more sensible one than the moon-howlers in the UK.
Oh they have their moments.
Meat free fridays was one of the more interesting ones, then there is the law that means you have to kill any fish you catch as catch and release is too stressful on the fish.
 
#12
NRW are voting for the State parliament this Sunday.
Being the most populous state it is always seen as a particularly relevant indicator for the outcome of the general parliamentary election.

It is SPD at present and the wannabe chancellor (Schulz) is throwing his weight behind the incumbent Fr Kraft.
Could be an interesting outcome.
 
#13
Could it be that the Germans are more tolerant than us Brits when it comes to identifying the need for migrant workers to do the jobs that our kids won't do? A Merkel win will guarantee a stronger EU and a more difficult exit for the UK (imo).
Come on own up. Whose sock is this?
 
#14
NRW are voting for the State parliament this Sunday.
Being the most populous state it is always seen as a particularly relevant indicator for the outcome of the general parliamentary election.

It is SPD at present and the wannabe chancellor (Schulz) is throwing his weight behind the incumbent Fr Kraft.
Could be an interesting outcome.
I read that the SPD and the Greens (currently in charge) are doing pretty poorly. It said the Greens may not even get the 5% of the vote required to have any seats and the SPD could lose half theirs. CDU (under Angela) and AltR are predicted to do well.
 

Auld-Yin

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#15
I read that the SPD and the Greens (currently in charge) are doing pretty poorly. It said the Greens may not even get the 5% of the vote required to have any seats and the SPD could lose half theirs. CDU (under Angela) and AltR are predicted to do well.
AltR are the big question mark. Although we keep hearing German voters shy away from right wing politics yet at the same time we are told of the upsurge of AltR.

I am very uninformed on German politics so would be grateful for pointers from ex-pats out there. All i get at the moment is the dribs and drabs in the media.
 
#16
German politics are very strange. A coalition between Conservative (Merkel) and the Green Party would not be seen as a comfortable one here. It was bad enough with Tory/Lib Dems.

Mind you, the Green Party in Germany seems to be a more sensible one than the moon-howlers in the UK.
They might just be more sensible than the Brit Greens, but they are now so far out of touch and anything other than green that they are not taken too seriously (except in Baden Wurtemburg) and have lost lots of votes.
 
#17
Could it be that the Germans are more tolerant than us Brits when it comes to identifying the need for migrant workers to do the jobs that our kids won't do? A Merkel win will guarantee a stronger EU and a more difficult exit for the UK (imo).
This is why Merkel openly admits that she uses stasi and their methods to control public opinion.
I think she will win which will destroy Germany over the next couple of decades.
I obviously hope she loses.
 

Auld-Yin

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#18
They might just be more sensible than the Brit Greens, but they are now so far out of touch and anything other than green that they are not taken too seriously (except in Baden Wurtemburg) and have lost lots of votes.
And yet the story in my original post, albeit from the Sun, states that AM could go into coalition with the Greens.
 
#19
Regional elections were held on 7 May and Merkel came out of these on top, against what had been expected.
Merkel did not come out on top, the relevant local party and politicians came out on top. The Saarland CDU was expected to win and did. Schleswig Holstein has a habit of yo-yoing between SPD and CDU, whilst the CDU won this time it was a marginal win and will mean a coalition with somebody. Next comes NRW, where I live. The current Ministerpräsident Hannelore Kraft is quite likely going to lose to CDUs Armin Laschett, it could however be close run and result in another coalition, that plus the fact that the Greens, Krafts current partner are on the fade does not bode well for her.
On top of all that is the problem with Martin Schulz, ex President of the EU parliament who burst in on the German political scene quite recently and replaced Gabriel as head of the SPD. Schulz was greeted as a Messiah who was going to save the SPD from anihilation. The SPDs rating soared initially but has since dropped back a lot, leaving Merkel in a clear lead. However it ain't over yet, the September elections are still a few months away and anything could happen meantime.
The real significance of the State elections is that the Ministerpräsident (in) sits in the German upper chamber, up till now there was a heavy SPD presence, which could make life a bit difficult for Merkel, however with a CDU dominated upper chamber life becomes a bit more relaxed for Merkel.
It is also worth noting that people tend to vote in different ways in the local, State and Federal elections. It is quite possible that people vote SPD in the State elections and CDU in the Federal elections or maybe the other way round.
 
#20

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