"May questions UK’s top tier military status.."

A prediction. I thought your point was that birth rate was ‘falling quicker than the west’?

There appears to have been a decline this year after a steady rise since 2010 according to the World Bank: Birth Rate Hits 10-Year Low in Russia
Yep, sorry - missed out the paragraph before

One lesson is that the population of Western Europe is now reasonably stable out to 2100 at around 190 million (M) people, while that of Eastern Europe shows a significant decline from present levels of around 310M people to 210M by 2100.
Some of it refers to info discussed over https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/we-live-in-interesting-times.278497/page-5#post-8623046 in the slightly more macro scale
 
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The ‘muscovite mentality’ has been mentioned by many and is worth a search
quote from @Condottiere

"No Russia is dangerous because it is still in the grip of the "Muscovite Mindset" which is a world view based on paranoia and "might is right".

The Kremlin believes that it is a "dog-eat-dog" world and it is determined to be the the dog that eats the other dogs before it is eaten by them.

Offence is defence in the eyes of the Muscovite and he will not be happy until he has defeated all his potential enemies.

The first and greatest enemy is the Russian peoples, who must be controlled, muzzled and subservient to the whims of the Muscovite at the top of the power pyramid in the Kremlin. If they are not content with the way the are ruled, if there is any opposition - then it is traitorous and must be influenced by external enemies.

Russia is dangerous, because Muscovy rules Russia and Muscovite Mindset brooks no dissent and uses every means at its disposal to ensure that the peoples it rules are fed a warped view of the world that justifies Muscovite aggression and paranoia."
 
Still lower than the UK & flat for the last four years.
I’m not really sure our island needs a larger birth rate personally.
GDP & GNI are both at 60% of their 2013 peak & Putin's plans were based on an oil price significantly higher than even the present (IIRC they were based on $110-120 a barrel).
Last I heard they were ‘balancing the budget’ $55 a barrel. It’s risen as well
Apart from its nuclear weapons, Russia is a long way from being a threat to anywhere from Poland westwards
I agree. The Baltic’s and Finland along with Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and some of the southern states are much more likely to be ‘liberated’ than Chelsea and its Russian population
but keeping it that way demands continued investment in our armed forces (& a significant increase in expenditure by the slackers in Europe).
Gets my vote. As does a new NATO article allowing members to be warned and then removed from NATO
 
quote from @Condottiere

"No Russia is dangerous because it is still in the grip of the "Muscovite Mindset" which is a world view based on paranoia and "might is right".

The Kremlin believes that it is a "dog-eat-dog" world and it is determined to be the the dog that eats the other dogs before it is eaten by them.

Offence is defence in the eyes of the Muscovite and he will not be happy until he has defeated all his potential enemies.

The first and greatest enemy is the Russian peoples, who must be controlled, muzzled and subservient to the whims of the Muscovite at the top of the power pyramid in the Kremlin. If they are not content with the way the are ruled, if there is any opposition - then it is traitorous and must be influenced by external enemies.

Russia is dangerous, because Muscovy rules Russia and Muscovite Mindset brooks no dissent and uses every means at its disposal to ensure that the peoples it rules are fed a warped view of the world that justifies Muscovite aggression and paranoia."
Thanks. He knows I like to quote him :)
 

A2_Matelot

LE
Book Reviewer
They have a much better ability to play the long game then we do.
It helps they changed the rules and started their own game a long time before many of us realised it was actually real and not a game.

It also helps, as the majority of you will know, that our rules simply don't exist for them and hence they've freedoms and cultural differences which make this all the more possible for them and harder for us.

They've played a blinder and we really haven't quite cracked the appropriate response.
 
I’m not really sure our island needs a larger birth rate personally.

Last I heard they were ‘balancing the budget’ $55 a barrel. It’s risen as well

I agree. The Baltic’s and Finland along with Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and some of the southern states are much more likely to be ‘liberated’ than Chelsea and its Russian population

Gets my vote. As does a new NATO article allowing members to be warned and then removed from NATO
We need to lose at least 20 million form the official number, which is probably out by 5-7 million "invisibles" (see "beds in sheds").

Putin's spending plans were based on $110-120 a barrel, so a "balanced budget" has either come from severe cuts (how many T14 are actually in service & what happened to the Russian pension plans...), or a significant increase in oil & gas extraction.

I think Ukraine would give Russia rather more than a bloody nose if Putin tried a full on invasion. TBH I think he's gone as far as he can get, despite the desire for a land bridge to occupied Crimea.

It's way past time the slackers were given an ultimatum, though an annual fine equivalent to the amount under 2% GDP they spent on defence would be good too - could be used to help boost the defence spending of the front line states.
 
The Mail on Sunday has the SoS "demanding £20Bn or he'll bring the PM down".

Which I presume is a leak from him to endear him to various parts of his party.


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The Mail on Sunday has the SoS "demanding £20Bn or he'll bring the PM down".

Which I presume is a leak from him to endear him to various parts of his party.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Give me £20billion or I'll bring you down: Defence Secretary’s astonishing threat to PM | Daily Mail Online
IDefence Secretary is reported as saying:
Furious Mr Williamson warned the Prime Minister that if she did not commit an extra £20 billion to the Ministry of Defence then Tory MPs would vote down the next Budget – effectively passing a motion of no confidence in her.

‘I made her – and I can break her,’ Mr Williamson is said to have boasted to service chiefs.

The furore, described by one Williamson ally as a ‘dogfight at the heart of Government’, erupted after Mrs May announced a £20 billion-a-year boost to NHS spending last week.
 
It helps they changed the rules and started their own game a long time before many of us realised it was actually real and not a game.

It also helps, as the majority of you will know, that our rules simply don't exist for them and hence they've freedoms and cultural differences which make this all the more possible for them and harder for us.

They've played a blinder and we really haven't quite cracked the appropriate response.
Well they don’t have a party of 29 countries to coordinate with. NATO is to many Chiefs and not nearly enough Indians. The Russians as you mentioned march to the beat of a different drum.
 
We need to lose at least 20 million form the official number, which is probably out by 5-7 million "invisibles" (see "beds in sheds").

Putin's spending plans were based on $110-120 a barrel, so a "balanced budget" has either come from severe cuts (how many T14 are actually in service & what happened to the Russian pension plans...), or a significant increase in oil & gas extraction.

I think Ukraine would give Russia rather more than a bloody nose if Putin tried a full on invasion. TBH I think he's gone as far as he can get, despite the desire for a land bridge to occupied Crimea.

It's way past time the slackers were given an ultimatum, though an annual fine equivalent to the amount under 2% GDP they spent on defence would be good too - could be used to help boost the defence spending of the front line states.

Oh God don’t tell the Germans they owe America money for their defense.

The 4 30’s plan is the minimum force that is feasible. It should be tripled.
 

Sarastro

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
The Mail on Sunday has the SoS "demanding £20Bn or he'll bring the PM down".

Which I presume is a leak from him to endear him to various parts of his party.
Mmmm. Gavin Williamson is a shill. I don't know whether he knows he is a shill, but he has a label on him saying 100% Pure Cotton Shill. I also don't know who is pulling the strings, but whoever they are, they are clearly giving thanks for May having appointed the shilliest shill in Shilltown to the post of Shill of State for Shilling.

Also, this:

When one officer then asked whether the Prime Minister would back him, Mr Williamson – who ran Mrs May’s leadership campaign in 2016 – is said to have replied: ‘I made her – and I can break her.’
Is classic tabloid junk. Whenever the DM or their ilk preface something controversial with "is said to have", you know the author has no actual source and is covering themself legally, while submitting to an editorial line that wants to set things on fire.

Someone is trying to set things on fire for the Sunday papers and morning shows. That usually means there is less in it than is being reported.

PS ATG, if I was trying to draft the ideal article to torpedo any chance of No. 10 actually giving in to the demands within, I probably couldn't have come up with a better one than that. It's not at all clear that his has come from anyone who is onside with increasing the Defence budget.
 
Putin's spending plans were based on $110-120 a barrel, so a "balanced budget" has either come from severe cuts (how many T14 are actually in service & what happened to the Russian pension plans...), or a significant increase in oil & gas extraction.
$55 apparently would allow them to build up their reserves again: FACTBOX-Russia's new budget rule to protect economy from oil swings
It’s about $70 now: Urals, Brent and WTI Crude oil | Daily updated prices

I don’t believe any T14’s are in service and notably weren’t seen on Zapad 2017.

Like most countries, they’re raising the pension age. Trouble is, they may not live long enough to see it. Announcement made during World Cup opening ceremony: Two-fifths of Russian men 'may not live to see their retirement'
I think Ukraine would give Russia rather more than a bloody nose if Putin tried a full on invasion. TBH I think he's gone as far as he can get, despite the desire for a land bridge to occupied Crimea.
I’m not so sure if it’s an ‘open’ invasion. They’d easily establish air supremacy in a few days.
It's way past time the slackers were given an ultimatum, though an annual fine equivalent to the amount under 2% GDP they spent on defence would be good too - could be used to help boost the defence spending of the front line states.
I understand some not seeing a need for large standing armed forces eg Luxembourg, but they should put the money into a central budget for E3’s, Rivet Joint etc. A fine for failing to provide the men and materiel or money at 2%. Start at 0.25%, then 0.5% etc. Four years failure and out the club.
 
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Mmmm. Gavin Williamson is a shill. I don't know whether he knows he is a shill, but he has a label on him saying 100% Pure Cotton Shill. I also don't know who is pulling the strings, but whoever they are, they are clearly giving thanks for May having appointed the shilliest shill in Shilltown to the post of Shill of State for Shilling.

Also, this:



Is classic tabloid junk. Whenever the DM or their ilk preface something controversial with "is said to have", you know the author has no actual source and is covering themself legally, while submitting to an editorial line that wants to set things on fire.

Someone is trying to set things on fire for the Sunday papers and morning shows. That usually means there is less in it than is being reported.

PS ATG, if I was trying to draft the ideal article to torpedo any chance of No. 10 actually giving in to the demands within, I probably couldn't have come up with a better one than that. It's not at all clear that his has come from anyone who is onside with increasing the Defence budget.
I think this is Lord High Gavlar, bestest friend and trusted side kick to warrior monk mad dog Mattis, positioning himself with the blue rinse brigade who select the next leader.

Whether Defence actually needs £20Bn is neither here nor there - this is about positioning for a post-May era.

And I think Gavlar, or sources close to him, have been watching too much House of Cards...


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PS ATG, if I was trying to draft the ideal article to torpedo any chance of No. 10 actually giving in to the demands within, I probably couldn't have come up with a better one than that. It's not at all clear that his has come from anyone who is onside with increasing the Defence budget.
Quite, but the DM's editorial panel probably isn't quite bright enough to see that.
 
put the money into a central budget for E3’s, Rivet Joint etc. A fine for failing to provide the men and materiel or money at 2%. Start at 0.25%, then 0.5% etc. Four years failure and out the club.
You think anyone but the frontier states would be bothered. There are people on this board openly saying the Baltic states, Byelorussia [aka East poland], the Ukraine are disposable. I suspect your average Belgian, or even German would give them half of Poland as well before they began to take notice. Your policy could leave NATO consisting of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Greece, Turkey, the USA and UK.
 
I’m happy for everyone to pay more tax, let’s get it back up to 25% for lower band and really start improving things.
Just as soon as as the welfare system gets shook to it's core and the spongers all get told to get out to work and DLA took off those not needing it.
 

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