"May questions UK’s top tier military status.."

See, I presume you mean "a tank", but the problem with this conversation is that half the people having it are primed to think you mean "AJAX".
I thought AJAX was some kind of convenient mobile version of "targets will fall when hit with pretty much anything AP".
 

Sarastro

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I feel like the Russians are going to win the new Cold War. Perhaps it is time for a serious alternate to NATO.
...does the serious alternate to NATO look quite a lot like NATO, just called something different? Unless there is a whole new set of militarily capable countries that have appeared over the past few months that I'm unaware of. Perhaps a new US / NK axis, given all the good stuff, that definitely has no possible downside, going on at the moment?

Of all the international institutions which are basically a way of the 5Eyes community rallying round like minded potential partners, NATO is really the least problematic and least inefficient one, and Trump and his lackeys are utter ******* idiots if they seriously intend to kick it into touch. The 'threat' of NATO for the past 20 years has never been whether it could immediately produce some super force, it's been that over an extended period of time, provocation and persuasion, it could indubitably produce an overwhelming economic and military power that had no equal internationally. This is why the Russian and other strategies are to nip at the edges and test, rather than challenge it directly. The deterrent is not what it can do tomorrow, but what it can do over five years if you, an adversary, do something tomorrow. The one Article 5 call, regardless of its many inadequacies, is a good example of this: Afghanistan may not have been a strategic success due to the political idiocy surrounding it, but the Taliban government and AQ - the instigators - were ground to grist in the mill of a 15+ year NATO deployment.

Trump's approach to kicking NATO focuses entirely on what it can do tomorrow, while ignoring the rest of it, possibly because he is an incontinent child with the mental capacity of an energy-saving lightbulb.
 

Sarastro

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
I thought AJAX was some kind of convenient mobile version of "targets will fall when hit with pretty much anything AP".
Nope, it's a medium tank. Pukka gen no wah. CGS (Carter flavoured, @widow11 ) said so.
 
Interesting
Detterent on patrol doing its job
Typhoon air policing - acting as a detterent - doing its job
HMS X on Patrol - acting as a detterent is doing its job
This justifies their existance - All of which I agree with bye the bye

Yet the commitment of an armoured battlegroup to Eastern Europe act as a detterent, isn't doing its job doesn't justify its existence.

Ship sailing Good plane flying Good Tank driving not relevant im spotting a flaw to your logic.

I think Glad its all over is correct a smaller raid focused regulars is the way forwards
I also think Beardys correct - to many light unbrigaded units - the army needs to get a grip and lose light units and increase mechanised etc.
Of course the 2 positions are somewhat at odds but accepting that 50 - 70K army isnt enough for warfighting and thus configuring the regs for immediate light / SF medium intervention and shunting heavy armour and (high intensity) warfighting to the reserves (perhaps with a higher regs presence than present in certain Reserve units) may square that circle. With the obvious caviats*

*1) Its actually equipped and funded and not pretending a Morris minor is C2
2) everyone accepts its 6 months + to field an armoured brigade so in reality were conscripting and expanding rapidly if it looks like being used as anything other than squadron strength support for the regs
3 reserves will need to be reserves and subject to a few days per year
Try 18-24 months to field a new Brigade. You don’t get those back quickly.
 
...does the serious alternate to NATO look quite a lot like NATO, just called something different? Unless there is a whole new set of militarily capable countries that have appeared over the past few months that I'm unaware of. Perhaps a new US / NK axis, given all the good stuff, that definitely has no possible downside, going on at the moment?

Of all the international institutions which are basically a way of the 5Eyes community rallying round like minded potential partners, NATO is really the least problematic and least inefficient one, and Trump and his lackeys are utter ******* idiots if they seriously intend to kick it into touch. The 'threat' of NATO for the past 20 years has never been whether it could immediately produce some super force, it's been that over an extended period of time, provocation and persuasion, it could indubitably produce an overwhelming economic and military power that had no equal internationally. This is why the Russian and other strategies are to nip at the edges and test, rather than challenge it directly. The deterrent is not what it can do tomorrow, but what it can do over five years if you, an adversary, do something tomorrow. The one Article 5 call, regardless of its many inadequacies, is a good example of this: Afghanistan may not have been a strategic success due to the political idiocy surrounding it, but the Taliban government and AQ - the instigators - were ground to grist in the mill of a 15+ year NATO deployment.

Trump's approach to kicking NATO focuses entirely on what it can do tomorrow, while ignoring the rest of it, possibly because he is an incontinent child with the mental capacity of an energy-saving lightbulb.
You do realize that the Europeans are decaying and the Russians are strengthening their forces. The future is a great thing to plan for, but if you can’t fight tonight a five year plan ain’t worth a damn.
 
You do realize that the Europeans are decaying and the Russians are strengthening their forces. The future is a great thing to plan for, but if you can’t fight tonight a five year plan ain’t worth a damn.
Perhaps the rest of us wouldn't be that fussed if the Russians helped themselves to a lump of eastern europe?
 
A few months before the horror of SDSR 10 I heard a senior RN Officer (a Commodore) say that it was likely the defence review would involve certain tasks not currently being used, but needed long term being kept running by the Reserves. I think he did mention Armour.

A local Army Reserve unit trains CR2 Gunners and Loaders, can the AR also train Drivers and Commanders and get them SEQP? Same with the maintenance guys.

Genuine question.
Yeah but, no but.

Legislation for reserves is still stuck in the 1990s and recent options to upgrade it got kicked into touch.
Until employers are compelled to release individuals for training and exercises, the reserves still run on goodwill and incentivisation with a varying level of compliance to standards linked to unit leadership.
 
You do realize that the Europeans are decaying and the Russians are strengthening their forces. The future is a great thing to plan for, but if you can’t fight tonight a five year plan ain’t worth a damn.
Interesting that 40 odd years of confrontation created a strong NATO that restrained the USSR whereas 28 years of 'peace' has, in the end, presented Russia with a much less well defended Europe.
Putin must sometimes mull over what would happen if Russia rolled into the Ukraine (protecting the human rights of ethnic Russians he might argue). Would Europe want a war to defend Ukraine? (as @jagman2 points out).
 
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Interesting that 40 odd years of confrontation created a strong NATO that restrained the USSR whereas 28 years of 'peace' has, in the end, presented Russia with a much less well defended Europe.
Putin must sometimes mull over what would happen if Russia rolled into the Ukraine (protecting the human rights of ethnic Russians he might argue). Would Europe want a war to defend Ukraine? (as @jagman2 points out).
I think Ukraine would get arms and other kit from the US, and maybe Europe. But that would be it.
 
Maybe a small Baltic country...
Nobody did much more than grumble a little when Putin helped himself to Crimea
I don't think anyone will complain to loudly until the Russians are west of Warsaw on their way to Berlin

To be fair, as far as I am concerned they can have Berlin if they want it
 
Whether a deterrent has been “used” is surely a moot point?
The whole armed forces should be a deterrent, if they're used it's a failure, but I was trying to keep things on a directly comparative basis.
 
What are the current Russian ambitions in Europe and how do those affect the UK bearing in mind the Russian GDP is about that of Italy.

In their view Russia is assailed from the West, by EU/NATO expansions, from the south by disorder in the Stans and the nonsense in the ME, and a China that is quietly leaking its population into Siberia.

Total control over all Europe including UK; up to the English Channel; Eastern Europe, Baltic states and Ukraine; Baltic states and Ukraine; or just the Ukraine ?

Everywhere I read about the inevitable nature of a conflict between US and China. Surely Russia is more useful as an ally to the West if that happens?

What is the threat from Russia that we're supposed to prepare for and what would be the consequences for us in US/Europe if Russia returned to its historical boundaries?
 
Al Faw, 2003 (Ocean, now gone). NEO from Cote d'Ivoire 2004 (Albion);NEO from Lebanon 2006 (Bulwark); counter-piracy 2006 (Bulwark); Libya 2011 (Albion); counter-piracy 2011 (Albion)....
I am concerned about defending the country against the only plausible existential threat. These neo-colonial police actions are optional extras, not real warfare.
 
A few months before the horror of SDSR 10 I heard a senior RN Officer (a Commodore) say that it was likely the defence review would involve certain tasks not currently being used, but needed long term being kept running by the Reserves. I think he did mention Armour.

A local Army Reserve unit trains CR2 Gunners and Loaders, can the AR also train Drivers and Commanders and get them SEQP? Same with the maintenance guys.

Genuine question.
It would be perfectly possible and probably functionally most sensible to use the AR in this way, but it would not fit with the regular cavalry's egos. Image some big parade and HC and some Dragoons rock up in their Landrovers [sorry WIMIK] and the Yeomanry park up next to them in CR2 or it's replacement.
 
What is the threat from Russia that we're supposed to prepare for and what would be the consequences for us in US/Europe if Russia returned to its historical boundaries?
Which historical boundaries, those of 1945.
Russia, particularly while it is run by a secret policeman, intends to exert control over Europe by threat. This has been the Russian way since c1700. Governments will trade with Russia on a Russia first basis and to Russia's profit, dissolve their military so that if upset Russia could execute a Crimea style take over. Like Mr Hitler before him Vlad will cheerfully take these things in small mouthfuls if we are daft enough.
The consequences for an EU country not controlled are the same as for the rat the python didn't swallow this time.
The consequences once you're swallowed, lower living standards, no freedom of speech, lots of minorities labelled subversive and given a good bashing, Jews, Muslims, anyone with coloured skin, the sexually unusual, trade unionists.
The consequences for the US are no support at all against China, no markets in Europe to further weaken the economy.
 
I am concerned about defending the country against the only plausible existential threat. These neo-colonial police actions are optional extras, not real warfare.
How strange - that list by @Archimedes was in response to your line that amphibious forces have not been used since 1982, but CR2 etc has since 1990. Does CR2 in the Gulf in 1990/1991 and 2003 onwards not count as neo colonialism, but warships do?

Why do you think the Non Combatant Evacuation Operations and Counter Piracy are neo Colonialism?
 
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