Mathematical model shows how the Nazis could have won WWII's Battle of Britain

"It is doubtful whether there is any point in continuing attacks on radar sites, in view of the fact that not one of those attacked so far has been put out of action."

Reichsmarschall Hermann Wilhelm Göering, 15 August 1940

Dear me.



"I think we can say that the Battle of Britain might never have been won... if it were not for the radar chain"

MRAF Sir William Sholto Douglas
 

theoriginalphantom

MIA
Book Reviewer
and if we'd had 'that rifle' in 1939 WW2 would never have happened etc
 
The problem, I fear, is when you get statements that the model brings forward the air campaign by three weeks - it just means that the Luftwaffe gets less time to recover from the losses sustained during the Battle of France. They were arguably on the verge of culminating at the time of Dunkirk - don't forget that despite the 'Royal Absent Force' jibes during Dynamo, when the RAF had the assets available to push into France and Belgian airspace and engaged the enemy, it tended to go rather badly for the Germans.
In addition to all Achimedes' excellent points, there are also issues which tend to get forgotten, such as the fact that German aircraft replacements were running significantly below RAF replacements, because the UK had fully mobilised, and Germany had not. Although Dowding worried about aircraft replacement rates, they were never as big an issue as pilot replacements. German fitting of armour to their fighters also lagged behind the RAF - not a decisive factor, but again a measure of Luftwaffe preparedness perhaps not being all that it is sometimes made out to be.

Funnily enough, I went to school on the site where the Germans unintentionally triggered the tit for tat city bombing - the old Croydon airport. Bombed by Erprobungsgruppe 210, who thought it was RAF Kenley,
 

jrwlynch

LE
Book Reviewer
most historians have it down as a number of things, but there's no doubt the switch from airfields to cities was a big mistake and gave Fighter Command some much needed breathing space.
Actually, no - the Germans were coming off worst from the airfields campaign, and the switch to bombing London was done to reduce their losses while increasing RAF attrition (because it would draw "the last fifty Spitfires" up to where the Luftwaffe's fighters were concentrated.
 
Actually, no - the Germans were coming off worst from the airfields campaign, and the switch to bombing London was done to reduce their losses while increasing RAF attrition (because it would draw "the last fifty Spitfires" up to where the Luftwaffe's fighters were concentrated.

This is a pretty important point.

The Germans - thanks to Beppo - thought that Fighter Command was on its knees. 11 Group was tottering a bit, but 10, 12 and 13 Groups were all OK, although the squadrons rotating through the 'safe' groups had less time to recuperate before being pitched back into the fight - but they weren't defeated.

The Germans had underestimated the size of Fighter Command while the UK intelligence agencies had overestimated the strength of the Luftwaffe. Thus while hard pressed, Fighter Command was not up against the sort of odds it feared, while the Germans found themselves getting battered every time they turned up and discovered Fighter Command wasn't in fact dead.

Because of the attrition - and this includes to their aircrew and airframes which returned with numerous bullet holes in them - the temptation to switch to London to finish the job was too great when the intelligence assessments kept coming in that control of the air had been won because there weren't many RAF fighters left.

Shifting to London was logical at this point - the problem was that the attrition didn't decline because not only was Fighter Command far from finished, it meant that 12 Group could come into the fight more efficaciously than before. While they massively over-claimed (the claims rocketed once the Big Wing appeared on the scene thanks to (say) three pilots claiming what was, in fact, the same aircraft and all being awarded the 'kill') the attrition was still bad enough to make the shift a disaster for the Germans - but it was a shift that they'd have to have made at some point for the coercive effort to have any chance of succeeding.

(Remember that despite what history popularly tells us, Lord Halifax was against coming to terms with Hitler long before the shift to London, and so was Chamberlain - there was no appetite in government, even amongst those who mistrusted Churchill, to surrender)
 
Mathematical modelling shows that I will win the National Lottery one day.

14 million to one mathematical modelling, that is. All I have to do is buy a ticket on 14 million occasions!!!!!

They were the old odds when they used 49 numbers.

Gone up to one in 45 million now.

Apparently the logic of increasing the number to 59 was so that "people could win more". Beats me . . .
 

maguire

LE
Book Reviewer
Actually, no - the Germans were coming off worst from the airfields campaign, and the switch to bombing London was done to reduce their losses while increasing RAF attrition (because it would draw "the last fifty Spitfires" up to where the Luftwaffe's fighters were concentrated.

and nothing to do with hitler having a strop after berlin was bombed?
 

syrup

LE
Oh! that must be a different mathematical model to the one I seen. The Plean Historical Society and Pizza Delivery Centre have been working on an geometric model that shows if Hitler's boot lace had snapped at approx 09:18 hrs, on the 1st of August 1917., and he was three minutes early for breakfast the next day he would have copped a round in the bonce, thus cancelling WW2 altogether. However Prof Fuller-Ship thinks that if Hitler's dad had been drunk around July 20th 1888 he might not have got his end away, thereby rendering Hitler as a non entity


According to Adolf Hitler if Henry Tandey V.C, DCM, MM had stuck his bayonet in him instead of letting him up and sending him on his way there might have been a different outcome

.Hitler had identified Tandy from a picture taken after his V.C investiture at the palace in 1918 and kept the clipping with him.

The German Ambassador contacted the Frankie Howards in 1938 and gained a copy of a painting that was reportedly Henry Tandey carrying a wounded soldier and presented it to Hitler

Hitler had the picture on his office wall and when Chamberlin asked who it was he described him as the British Tommy who saved his life.
 
Mathematical models show it would gave been possible for the Americans to have won the Vietnam war?

The relevance of mathematical models to facts.

“You know you never beat us on the battlefield,” I told my North Vietnamese Army (NVA) counterpart, Colonel Tu, during a meeting in Hanoi a week before the fall of Saigon. “That may be so,” he replied, “but it is also irrelevant.”
 
This is relevant.

Eric Winkle Brown got to interrogate Goering, Brown spoke German.
Goering thought it was a draw, they'd have won if they'd kept on going. Hitler ended it to prepare for the invasion of Russia.
Brown though that was plausible, as did the people he told about it, who were probably other WW2 pilots.

There were many occasions in WW2 on which the Germans could have done better than they did. Hitler's interference accounts for many of those events.
 
Despite all their effort in the real battle the Germans knocked out, what was it, one small airfield, and one radar station for 24 hours.
Not sure an extra three weeks would have improved matters.

Either way it's utterly irrelevant if 11 group was destroyed or not. There was still 100+ destroyers in home waters.
 

Yokel

LE
All models are wrong - some models are useful...

Surely the entire Battle of Britain is far too complex to model, although you could model a Hurricane or Spitfire launching to intercept an incoming HE111 or engaging a ME109?

Dowding's efforts to create an integrated air defence system, and to conserve his fighter force, were war winning.
 
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Despite all their effort in the real battle the Germans knocked out, what was it, one small airfield, and one radar station for 24 hours.
Not sure an extra three weeks would have improved matters.

Either way it's utterly irrelevant if 11 group was destroyed or not. There was still 100+ destroyers in home waters.
If the Luftwaffe had achieved air supremacy, then many of them would have shortly thereafter been under home waters. Similarly, if the U-boats had been able to cut off the Navy's oil supplies, they wouldn't have been a lot of use.

Mathematical modelling says it could have worked out differently. It didn't, but that wasn't because 'We wuz invincible'. We were very vincible, it was a close run thing on innumerable occasions.
 
If the Luftwaffe had achieved air supremacy, then many of them would have shortly thereafter been under home waters. Similarly, if the U-boats had been able to cut off the Navy's oil supplies, they wouldn't have been a lot of use.

Just for interest, how well did the Luftwaffe do against those same Destroyers when they were moving at very low speeds or anchored at Dunkirk? Was it a fearsome tally of sunk ships which were sitting there with giant bulls eyes painted on them?
How well did the Luftwaffe do against merchants out at sea during 1940 (I ask as this is an easier target that a Destroyer)?
How well did the Luftwaffe do at sinking ships at night?
How well did the Luftwaffe do against the 40 destroyers stationed, and paroling out of Dover and Portsmouth during 1940?

U-boats? That would be all 10 of them operating in the Atlantic (at best)? How much cutting of the supply lines will ten boats, distributed across the entire Atlantic do?

Also, what were they going to be firing at these oil tankers? As preparation for the invasion required removal of the River barges, which in turn caused the German economy to seize up, which meant German Torpedo production had ground to a halt.
 
As far as germany was concerned, aerial warfareover the UK didnt end until October, so their concept of the end of the battle is different.
 

jrwlynch

LE
Book Reviewer
Also, what were they going to be firing at these oil tankers? As preparation for the invasion required removal of the River barges, which in turn caused the German economy to seize up, which meant German Torpedo production had ground to a halt.
And the torpedoes they did have, were having significant problems with fuzing and depth-keeping, not fixed until 1941.
 
Destroyers patrolled out of those ports even if only to avoid Stukas. All of the Southern ports suffered heavy bombing as luftwaffe crews preferred not to fly deep into UK territory. For part of the battle, they dominated daylight ship movement. Their airfield attack plan failed because they assigned equal priority to all airfields so small training airfields were being strafed as well as Sector stations. They destroyed a lot of aircraft on the ground and smashed the Supermarine works so elements of what they were doing was successful. They did little or no damage to the rail network so railborne supply continued without halt.
 
Destroyers patrolled out of those ports even if only to avoid Stukas. All of the Southern ports suffered heavy bombing as luftwaffe crews preferred not to fly deep into UK territory. For part of the battle, they dominated daylight ship movement.

How many were sunk?

Because my work on plastic armour shows that the IAAWD were well aware the problem was not sunk ships, but crew causalities caused by strafing and near misses.
 
If the Luftwaffe had achieved air supremacy, then many of them would have shortly thereafter been under home waters.

Disagree - Dunkirk shows just how much trouble they had hitting stationary ships - never mind one going max chat. The channel was a rather hostile environment for U boats as well

Not withstanding that air superiority over the south east doesnt mean the RAF is no more.

More on point the Germans had complete air supremacy over France - which didnt stop the RN causing mayhem racing up down and accross the channel - shooting up convoys and smashing up the invasion barges pretty much every night.

Edit - it seems im somewhat late to the party
 
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