Mass Shootings in the US

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
Yes, and many (new) people here don’t do to well after a few winters. You either love it or hate it with a passion. But with the massive cuts in state budget, the social services won’t be as readily available or accessible to many. So I expect a good chunk to leave, and more suicides in the future.
You've got the advantage up there of four distinct seasons when you know that it will snow in the winter, and can probably predict when the first snowfall will be within a couple of weeks. You can pretty much forecast when the last frosts will be and you can bet with certainty that you will get scorching days in mid summer.

I'm surprised to hear that newcomers can't always deal with the cold weather because they must have known beforehand that it would all balance out with some decent summers (and springs and autumns). They certainly wouldn't hack it in our maritime influenced climate where we can only predict a few days ahead at any time of the year. It really is true that many places in the UK can have four seasons in one day.

So, just a little diversion to make you think for a moment...
 

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
A county I'm familiar with has approx 40,000 cert holders (so both SGC and FAC, and that's not the number of guns either) for a population of approximately 2,504,820. However, that's not a full picture. The firearm density is much higher in ruralshire than in the cities. In the countryside, some villages pretty much have a firearm in every other house. Heave a plate out of the window and yell "pull" it'll get hit from sixteen different directions. Most countryside villages are really well armed. Its only when you get into towns and cities that the ownership levels drop.
Why is that?
 
You've got the advantage up there of four distinct seasons when you know that it will snow in the winter, and can probably predict when the first snowfall will be within a couple of weeks. You can pretty much forecast when the last frosts will be and you can bet with certainty that you will get scorching days in mid summer.

I'm surprised to hear that newcomers can't always deal with the cold weather because they must have known beforehand that it would all balance out with some decent summers (and springs and autumns). They certainly wouldn't hack it in our maritime influenced climate where we can only predict a few days ahead at any time of the year. It really is true that many places in the UK can have four seasons in one day.

So, just a little diversion to make you think for a moment...
We have three seasons.
Winter, Summer and road construction. It was still snowing in June.
 

Bodenplatte

Old-Salt
A county I'm familiar with has approx 40,000 cert holders (so both SGC and FAC, and that's not the number of guns either) for a population of approximately 2,504,820. However, that's not a full picture. The firearm density is much higher in ruralshire than in the cities. In the countryside, some villages pretty much have a firearm in every other house. Heave a plate out of the window and yell "pull" it'll get hit from sixteen different directions. Most countryside villages are really well armed. Its only when you get into towns and cities that the ownership levels drop.
Just for fun, can we delve into these stats, making a lot of assumptions.
County population 2504829 - say 2,500,000. (Your figure). (Edited)

Avg. domestic property occupancy = 4, so on the face of it 625,000 domestic units. (My assumption)

40k certificate holders (your figure): that doesn't mean 40k individuals with an FAC or SGC as many will hold both types of cert. FACs are significantly outnumbered by SGCs by a factor of about 4 to 1, so let's assume that 30k individuals have either an FAC, an SGC, or both.

This does not mean that 30k households will have a certificate holder in residence, as there will be (are) lots of multiple certificate holders at some addresses, where more than one occupant/family have a certificate. So can we say 25k households with at least one certificate holder ?

25k armed households out of 625k gives one in 25.

The numbers for any given very small community might reveal much higher rates, but it is always the case that small samples can disproportionally skew stats. It could even go the other way.

By all means fiddle with the numbers, for as I say, apart from the ones you have given (county population and number of certificates), all of the numbers that I have used are rough assumptions.

I'd say, from just knowing my home village over three decades, where everybody knows each other, that about one in fifteen properties have at least one certificate holder possessing one or more guns.
 
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I live rural. Everyone on my two mile road (four houses) have a firearms license. That includes a female teacher and an Architect.
Vermin don't stand a chance and I would worry about anyone who commented on the teacher's comfortable shoes.
 

Cutaway

LE
Kit Reviewer
Just for fun, can we delve into these stats, making a lot of assumptions.
County population 2504829 - say 250,000. (Your figure).

Avg. domestic property occupancy = 4, so on the face of it 625,000 domestic units. (My assumption)

40k certificate holders (your figure): that doesn't mean 40k individuals with an FAC or SGC as many will hold both types of cert. FACs are significantly outnumbered by SGCs by a factor of about 4 to 1, so let's assume that 30k individuals have either an FAC, an SGC, or both.

This does not mean that 30k households will have a certificate holder in residence, as there will be (are) lots of multiple certificate holders at some addresses, where more than one occupant/family have a certificate. So can we say 25k households with at least one certificate holder ?

25k armed households out of 625k gives one in 25.

The numbers for any given very small community might reveal much higher rates, but it is always the case that small samples can disproportionally skew stats. It could even go the other way.

By all means fiddle with the numbers, for as I say, apart from the ones you have given (county population and number of certificates), all of the numbers that I have used are rough assumptions.

I'd say, from just knowing my home village over three decades, where everybody knows each other, that about one in fifteen properties have at least one certificate holder possessing one or more guns.
Well I can give you some more generic figures to tighten it up.
About 80% of the 40,000 Cert holders are SGC only. But the figures provided earlier saying its about 5x SG's per cert sounds like a believable figure.
Multiple holders at an address is the exception rather than the norm, although my perception is in cities it seems to be more common. IE: Dad and both kids are holders as they all do Clays, where as its usually the male of the house hold out in the countryside blatting Bambi's mum.
 
Am I understanding you correctly are you saying you can’t ever remember a mass shooting in the UK. They certainly happen, not as frequently but they are there. Google.
...in the past month - the time period that Sam referred to, and I quoted.

So thanks for the slightly snide advice - but I don't require it.
 

Cutaway

LE
Kit Reviewer
If your question refers to "why do people who live in the countryside have more firearms than people who live in the city?", then the reason probably has to do with people who live in the countryside have more opportunities to do some shooting.
Not according to some posters, I imagine they assume that living in a city just gives more tgts.
 

Cutaway

LE
Kit Reviewer
...in the past month - the time period that Sam referred to, and I quoted.

So thanks for the slightly snide advice - but I don't require it.
Someone else upset you darling ?
Never mind, the day's nearly over and you'll feel much better after a good night's sleep.
 

Bodenplatte

Old-Salt
I live rural. Everyone on my two mile road (four houses) have a firearms license. That includes a female teacher and an Architect.
Vermin don't stand a chance and I would worry about anyone who commented on the teacher's comfortable shoes.
Four houses is far too small a sample to be statistically significant.
 

endure

GCM
We are also having unseasonably warm temps for this time of year. I imagine August and September are going to be a bear.

Do you intend to shoot it? ;-)
 

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