Libya

Well. Tis the season to be jolly...
Indeed; however more likely related to the anniversary of independence from Italy (DEC 24) rather than any Christian palaver that may be concurrent.
 
French airstrike on convoy entering Tchad from Libya,

French air strikes target convoy entering Chad from Libya

Terrorists and mercenaries? I wonder how many are from Britain?. Terrorists that is. Hopefully a lot of them were killed.
Not many, if any. The LNA have a long history with various Chadian groups who Haftar has used in offensives on the North coast and they are quite professional by the standards of the region.

If you are looking for Brits, you'll need to wait until the LIFG massive decide they are coming back into play.
 
You mean British passport holders?
Possibly. Or like Salman and Hisham Obeidi: British passport holders, born in Britain. By any objective measure, from Britain.
 
East Libyan troops close on Tripoli, clashes near former airport - Reuters
Haftar is now openly against the U.N. supported govt. Russia says he’s not under their direction (despite visits, Wagner Mercs etc) U.N. concerned it will lead to another civil war and have called for the LNA to stop their advance on Tripoli

Guterres returns from a recent trip:
“I leave Libya with a heavy heart and deeply concerned. I still hope it is possible to avoid a bloody confrontation in and around Tripoli,” he said on Twitter.

The U.N. Security Council was briefed behind closed doors on the latest developments on Friday and expressed deep concern in a statement read after the meeting by German U.N. Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, president of the council for April.
“They (the council) called on LNA forces to halt all military movements. They also called on all forces to de-escalate and halt military activity. There can be no military solution to the conflict,” Heusgen said.
 
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Although there will certainly be a bit of trouble I would be fairly sure that A) Haftar wouldn't have gone for it without a nod from at least one international backer. Seeing as the Italians have no influence in the east, France doesn't really care as long as they can carry on with BARKHANE related activities, make some cash and piss-off the Italians, the US has probably shot their bolt with Haftar after giving him the cold shoulder and we are irrelevant - I would say it highly likely the Russians have given him the nod.
B) He has done a deal with General Ali Kana in the south otherwise there is no way the LNA could have claimed control of the south western oil / gas fields. This also means that in essence the entire onshore, downstream O and G infra in the country is under his influence and therefore so is the national economy.
C) he doesn't want to launch an offensive into Tripoli due to the risk of bringing the non-hardline Misratans (and possibly the Zintanis) in in strength and is hoping to influence those who have been sitting on the fence to declare for the LNA in order to sit down for negotiations from a position of having a mandate from the bigdogs. He probably has arrangements with a significant number of the Tripoli militia commanders already.

That said Libya is ******* mental and anything can happen but I'd put money on the Russians being at least supportive. I wonder how long it will be until the Admiral Kuznetsov visits Tobruk again?
 
In addition Haftar has the support of Egypt and the UAE (and the KSA).
 
In addition Haftar has the support of Egypt and the UAE (and the KSA).
Indeed, and therefore one of the key questions is - What are the Qataris going to do? or more accurately - How are the Qataris (and possibly Turkey) going to cause trouble?
 

Glad_its_all_over

ADC
Book Reviewer
Indeed, and therefore one of the key questions is - What are the Qataris going to do? or more accurately - How are the Qataris (and possibly Turkey) going to cause trouble?
They already are - see here the equipment and training states of the Misratan katibas and compare to same in 2011-13. I think your appreciation is right, though - Hafter has no particular reason to invest Tripoli if he controls the actual production assets in-country (although their value is declining inexorably due to a lack, a criminal and total lack, of routine maintenance and battle damage repair). Look for a Russian energy company to move in to sort things out.

From our selfish perspective, a Russian-, Egyptian- and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi-backed Hafter is probably the least worst outcome. At least the Brotherhood will be kept under and Salafist idiots and IS jihadis will get the good news delivered sooner rather than later.
 
How the West’s silence emboldened Libya’s Haftar
Fairly decent (imo) article on Hafter. How he got the groups in the south on side, which particular branch of Salafi’s he sides with, his aid from outside countries including by Egypt, KSA, Russia etc. Mention also of France supporting albeit the reference to their SF deaths in a helicopter crash in 2016 is much more likely to be anti IS ops as others are undertaking.

Will he bring stability? Or is it in other countries interests to keep the war ongoing?
 
They already are - see here the equipment and training states of the Misratan katibas and compare to same in 2011-13. I think your appreciation is right, though - Hafter has no particular reason to invest Tripoli if he controls the actual production assets in-country (although their value is declining inexorably due to a lack, a criminal and total lack, of routine maintenance and battle damage repair). Look for a Russian energy company to move in to sort things out.
Already happened. Deals done about 6 months ago IIRC. Haftar and a posse of select bag carriers made an extended trip to Moscow ahead of the Palermo conference and there were some announcements made shortly afterwards.

From our selfish perspective, a Russian-, Egyptian- and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi-backed Hafter is probably the least worst outcome. At least the Brotherhood will be kept under and Salafist idiots and IS jihadis will get the good news delivered sooner rather than later.
Except that I would suggest that the Haftar master plan depends on the Madkhalis within the LNA Saiqa Brigades and Tariq Bin Zayid Bn (amongst others) leveraging common ideology with Rada, Nawazi and fomer Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade (or whatever they are called this week) commanders and members. Admittedly there is no love lost between Jihadi and Madkahli Salafists but I think there has been a tendancy to lump in everday political islamists with the Shura councils and I'm not sure the anticpated "purge" is a done deal at all.
 
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They already are - see here the equipment and training states of the Misratan katibas and compare to same in 2011-13. I think your appreciation is right, though - Hafter has no particular reason to invest Tripoli if he controls the actual production assets in-country (although their value is declining inexorably due to a lack, a criminal and total lack, of routine maintenance and battle damage repair). Look for a Russian energy company to move in to sort things out.

From our selfish perspective, a Russian-, Egyptian- and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi-backed Hafter is probably the least worst outcome. At least the Brotherhood will be kept under and Salafist idiots and IS jihadis will get the good news delivered sooner rather than later.
Libyan oil industry was suffering before 2011; no new fields or significant discoveries for over 40 year and hydrocarbon laws that prioritised nationalisation at the cost of production. Then pile the shagged CPF and pipeline infrastructure on top, as highlighted, one that has had little routine maintenance and lots of damage.

To get Libyan O&G back up and running to a decent level, the answer for whoever ends up on top of the smouldering heap is likely to be China.
Lots of cheap semi skilled labour from a country that doesn't have the same scale of demographic problem Russia does.
 
The G7 foreign ministers met in France on Friday in preparation for an upcoming larger G7 meeting in a few months. The meeting covered a number of issues, but one of the public statements made said that they wanted to put a lid on the current upheaval in Libya and want Haftar to stop his advance on Tripoli.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/g7-france-1.5087656?cmp=rss
"We are agreed that we must use all the possibilities at our disposal to exert pressure on those responsible in Libya especially General Haftar, so that we avoid any further military escalation. We all agreed," he told reporters.
 

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