Liberal Democrats take Tory stronghold with historic win in Chesham and Amersham by-election shock horror

It's not so much the election itself, that's a healthy democracy for you. It's the fact that every Lib Dem supporter is going to be an insufferable little s hit today that pisses me off.
 
Politics is slowly turning on its head, and in some respects reflecting American domestic politics. In addition to parochial issues, Boris's approach to Brexit appealed to traditional Labour voters who, paradoxically, are quite conservative in their outlook and have eschewed the sneering wokeism of the metropolitan elite leading Labour (see also 'Taking the knee'). Amersham is full of affluent (former) Conservative supporters who are more liberal in outlook and are, inter alia, not happy with the impact of Brexit (trade to the EU has plummeted since the beginning of the year, as an example) and appear not to care for his school-boy fibbing bluster. I don't see this as a shift towards Lib Dems - rather, they chose a least worse option.

E2A: And let's not forget the immediate impact of the pandemic and the Government's U turn on lockdown, ruining the summer for many people who have had their support for the Government - and Boris in particular - sorely strained.
Good points. Ruining the summer for the type of person more likely than most to have access to a retreat in France, etc.
And now that Corbyn is gone, Boris is no longer the beneficiary of (reluctant) votes from those who think Corbyn beyond the pale.
 
Good points. Ruining the summer for the type of person more likely than most to have access to a retreat in France, etc.
And now that Corbyn is gone, Boris is no longer the beneficiary of (reluctant) votes from those who think Corbyn beyond the pale.
Yes, people who criticise the Government's vacillation and lethargy on border closures (see also India) yet are p!ssed off that going on a summer holiday is soooo difficult (and expensive) now because of border controls.
 
You’d be surprised just how many people are Lib Dem supporters.

A lot of their support comes from middle class church goers who won’t vote Tory because they don’t like the avarice associated with the more extreme Tory party sections and would never ever vote for the atheist leaning socialists.

They have a sizeable following. It just hasn’t in recent years managed to get many of them into parliament.

By-elections like this one though can be right up their street. Chesham etc is a middle class area and the low turnout has let them slip through the middle and parachute their candidate into the seat.

Just needed that army of door knockers and leafleteers to turn up and convince the faithful that if they get out and vote, they’re in with a chance!
You make an excellent observation and as churches have become more progressive and the established churches adopted a groovy beat in imitation of the Pentecostals, the church has slowly binned off its old working class following and its become introspective and very middle class.

This constituency is wealthier and can sustain the dissonance required to simultaneously publicly support open borders and only nice people full of decency, who you would have for tea should be in charge(tigers need not apply). Whilst adopting the worst kind of NIMBY attitudes and I could imagine many of these lib dem voters collecting for the poor crossing the channel in wonky inflatable boats, whilst agreeing they're are best housed in Middlesbrough or inner city london as the public services aren't available around our nice haven of tranquility.
 
You make an excellent observation and as churches have become more progressive and the established churches adopted a groovy beat in imitation of the Pentecostals, the church has slowly binned off its old working class following and its become introspective and very middle class.

How many of Amersham and Chesham's population are likely to be regular churchgoers? How many of that tiny handful are likely to be of the happy-clappy persuasion?
 
The BBC are cock-a-hoop, but doesn't surprise me. The Lib Dem Machine is a formidable one when it can be concentrated on one locale exclusively and has an issue which puts people at odds with the government. I expect post-election, the party will keep the machine running for the next couple of years as lib dems are probably the hardest working bunch of workers in my view and very good at keeping themselves prominent in the local media.

As others said, the data showed a drop in turnout and heavy tactical voting. But I think the tories did lose votes to protest and the lib dems were the vehicle for that protest. Its a warning to the tories that personality alone is not enough and I agree with Ed (lib dem) on his blue wall comment, as remain voting conservatives are in play.

I live in a true blue Parliamentary constituency, but are dominated exclusively in the Town council, and, now in coalition at County level, by the Lib Dens. The MP has been blue for 40+ years

Their domination of the local press, palm pressing and presence is overwhelming at times. I often wonder if we have any Tory councilloirs, as they're pretty much a non-entity.

I think the next GE will see a large swing towards the center ground, as our last MP, 'Lazy' Vaizey, has been replaced by someone who is so absent or inconspicuous, that his name escapes me.
 
I think the next election will see tactical anti Conservative voting, with a possible Labour/Lib Dem pact in the offing.

The Greens possibly getting involved.
 
I live in a true blue Parliamentary constituency, but are dominated exclusively in the Town council, and, now in coalition at County level, by the Lib Dens. The MP has been blue for 40+ years

Their domination of the local press, palm pressing and presence is overwhelming at times. I often wonder if we have any Tory councilloirs, as they're pretty much a non-entity.

I think the next GE will see a large swing towards the center ground, as our last MP, 'Lazy' Vaizey, has been replaced by someone who is so absent or inconspicuous, that his name escapes me.
School Governors and every busybody entity can very soon fill up with like minded people and somebody actually listening can be enormous, so the busybody lib dem is always on the case.

In my constituency we have a hotel with 150 criminals and a few homeless, or an Incinerator that Nissan wanted to build. The tories only got interested well into the campaign, the labour party were the same. But the greens and lib dems were in the spearhead and people admire others willing to act to defend the local area.
 
How many of Amersham and Chesham's population are likely to be regular churchgoers? How many of that tiny handful are likely to be of the happy-clappy persuasion?
I haven't a clue, but a middle class voter will circulate around his/her social group and be it a church, or just outside the school gate you would be surprised how quickly those people can mobilize when in the mood. Contrast with the red wall and it took decades to slowly shift opinion on the labour party and took brexit to finally push them away from the party.
 
I live in a true blue Parliamentary constituency, but are dominated exclusively in the Town council, and, now in coalition at County level, by the Lib Dens. The MP has been blue for 40+ years

Their domination of the local press, palm pressing and presence is overwhelming at times. I often wonder if we have any Tory councilloirs, as they're pretty much a non-entity.

I think the next GE will see a large swing towards the center ground, as our last MP, 'Lazy' Vaizey, has been replaced by someone who is so absent or inconspicuous, that his name escapes me.
So a Chap from The Vale, welcome fellow Oxfordshire voter.
Even Ed was a bit lack luster and petulant, one of DCs mates who was our MP until he chucked his toys out of the cot.
Oxfordshire has it's issues one being housing which is screwing up the green belt and also socially re-engineering areas that were so blue the proverbial Teddy got in. Many of said Teddies are waking up to see that those who would vote till they dropped are either no longer there, or seriously peed oft that their green and pleasant land is turning into a concrete jungle.
Witney did wobble in 1989 when our MP went awol to Labour and then got Haloed into a Midlands Labour safe seat, he then got punted into the Lords, but all in between was True Blue.
So the third Div local Councillors are being shown the door thank heavens, and people power is claiming the upper hand but with that comes the fear of a looney or two getting in - we have that as well.
 
School Governors and every busybody entity can very soon fill up with like minded people and somebody actually listening can be enormous, so the busybody lib dem is always on the case.

In my constituency we have a hotel with 150 criminals and a few homeless, or an Incinerator that Nissan wanted to build. The tories only got interested well into the campaign, the labour party were the same. But the greens and lib dems were in the spearhead and people admire others willing to act to defend the local area.
Local aspirant politicians, you know them and see them emerge like moths six months before the local elections. All of a sudden they are posting on line, letters to the local paper and then a A cause célèbre. Local building, flooding, chewing gum on the pavements and away they go to fame and glory and a photo opportunity!
If they can do that as a mum on the PTA then they have their own rent a mob. Churches even the proverbial happy clappie ones are somewhat reticent to get involved in local politics, surprisingly reluctant to die on the barricades - some are and they are the ones to watch!
 
Turnout was seriously down (38,000 Vs 55,000 in 2019. And It looks like the majority of labour supporters switched to the Lib Dems.

Labour got 622 votes overall.

This should probably be something the Lib Dems focus on

Theres a lot of people absolutely Disillusioned with Labour who see no sign of it getting its act together - including some previously in the would vote for a pork pie with the right rosettee camp - who will not vote conservitive because 'Tory Scum' even if voting was mandatory and the other option was the Adolf -Stalin- Genghis -Mao we will eat your 1st born child party.

Currently I see a lot of Labour voters that allow themselves to be swayed by Momentum et al in the run up to an election thet the Libdems are Tory light / soft right*

Lib Dems need to target this demographic - drop all talk of Brexit and effectively try to become the New Labour** party even try to poach some of labours more credible candidates. Labour will then be free to redefine its self as the UK Communist party and as such content itself with winning arguments not elections


*Of course as soon as the results are in and Its not a Labour win - they revert to being left wing in Momentums suubsequent whine about the gov not representing the people
.
** Thats a new party aimed at what Labour voters want rather than New Labour or New new new labour
 

Themanwho

LE
Book Reviewer
Unsurprising- the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink at this By Election.

Well, what else do they have to do?

Although I was reading a Speccy article earlier in the week saying that a fair few of the cabinet had been visiting and supporting the unfeasibly tall Tory candidate. I don't think this was "Tory complacency"; the party put in the effort, but were trounced fair and square by the Lib Dems. CCHQ will be asking a lot of questions this morning.

Meanwhile, the other story that Labour almost lost their deposit here will be lost in the noise.

Not much of a crumb of comfort but quietly hilarious in its own special way.

Ed Davey is still a turd.

View attachment 582393

Indeed.
 
Politics is slowly turning on its head, and in some respects reflecting American domestic politics. In addition to parochial issues, Boris's approach to Brexit appealed to traditional Labour voters who, paradoxically, are quite conservative in their outlook and have eschewed the sneering wokeism of the metropolitan elite leading Labour (see also 'Taking the knee'). Amersham is full of affluent (former) Conservative supporters who are more liberal in outlook and are, inter alia, not happy with the impact of Brexit (trade to the EU has plummeted since the beginning of the year, as an example) and appear not to care for his school-boy fibbing bluster. I don't see this as a shift towards Lib Dems - rather, they chose a least worse option.

E2A: And let's not forget the immediate impact of the pandemic and the Government's U turn on lockdown, ruining the summer for many people who have had their support for the Government - and Boris in particular - sorely strained.

Your second point conforms entirely with what my Tory donor mate said to me this morning i.e. the lockdown extension to 19 July was the proverbial straw which broke the camel's back, although he said that HS2 and the proposed easing of planning restrictions were the prime causes of the loss.
 
Their failure to be elected comes down to their local party do gooder image - I've voted Lib Dem in the past but that was for Ming - different kettle of fish.

My local candidates have failed to win me over - same for Labour.
National Front for you then?
 
So a Chap from The Vale, welcome fellow Oxfordshire voter.
Even Ed was a bit lack luster and petulant, one of DCs mates who was our MP until he chucked his toys out of the cot.
Oxfordshire has it's issues one being housing which is screwing up the green belt and also socially re-engineering areas that were so blue the proverbial Teddy got in. Many of said Teddies are waking up to see that those who would vote till they dropped are either no longer there, or seriously peed oft that their green and pleasant land is turning into a concrete jungle.
Witney did wobble in 1989 when our MP went awol to Labour and then got Haloed into a Midlands Labour safe seat, he then got punted into the Lords, but all in between was True Blue.
So the third Div local Councillors are being shown the door thank heavens, and people power is claiming the upper hand but with that comes the fear of a looney or two getting in - we have that as well.

25 years this year in the VOWH, wouldn't live anywhere else (except South of France, Barbados, Costa Rica . . . )

I'm still struggling to think of the MP's name. Perhaps it'll come to me in 2024 when I see him again?
 
25 years this year in the VOWH, wouldn't live anywhere else (except South of France, Barbados, Costa Rica . . . )

I'm still struggling to think of the MP's name. Perhaps it'll come to me in 2024 when I see him again?
Scratching my head to think of ours as well.
I remember the days when Airey Neave was MP and lived in Ashbury. Those were the days of mellow fruitfulness, Jerusalem and cream teas and splat a rat - red was a colour used as an undercoat to stop the rust.
 
It's not so much the election itself, that's a healthy democracy for you. It's the fact that every Lib Dem supporter is going to be an insufferable little s hit today that pisses me off.


Good thing Whet/Sven/Snoozy doesnt use this site anymore, he would be harping on about it for ages.
 
It's not so much the election itself, that's a healthy democracy for you. It's the fact that every Lib Dem supporter is going to be an insufferable little s hit today that pisses me off.

I doubt if that many of the people who voted Lib Dem are committed Lib Dem voters or ever will be. They are more likely to be Tory voters who are mightily pissed off with Boris Johnson's ineptitude and clownishness as well as other local issues. As ever, it was the candidate who took the hit.
 
Top