Liberal Democrats take Tory stronghold with historic win in Chesham and Amersham by-election shock horror

People have woke/Left attitudes but don't like the city that creates, so move to a well-off, mainly white, area...hypocrisy isn't a strong enough word.
ETA: there's also the Uni issue - 50% of people go to University and they are now adults, some with the attitudes they picked up in Uni, which are not conservative (small C).
Also, do we take it that the Liberals have weathered the storm re. being part of the Coalition Govt?

This is prime commuter belt territory, so probably not 'white flight' territory as a decent number would be on Chiltern trains in/out of Marylebone were it not for the pandemic.
 
Same thing has happened in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Brighton - the Green 'led' council is busy authorising student accommodation blocks in its key areas as fast as it can. This is why the council is made up of Greens and the loonier fringes of Labour (read Momentum) as students are hardly likely to vote Tory (at least until they are about 30 and see the light). Funny, if a Tory council were doing this, you would be deafened by the shouts of 'Gerrymandering'.

BTW, I had no idea that this by-election was taking place (and I try to keep abreast of what's going on). Did someone die, or was it another case of 'wanting to spend more time with the family' (i.e caught doing something they shouldn't have)?
Yes, Dame Cheryl Gillan died in April 2021 Chesham and Amersham by-election - Wikipedia
 
Two issues decided the result. HS2 and, the proposed change to planning regulations

The second one being the most important...hoi polloi housing and, the effect it will have on property prices in Chesham and Amersham. The "Green Belt" only becomes an urgent issue with this lot when, it affects their way of life !

Anyone want to bet against the constituency turning Tory again in a GE ?
 
Same thing has happened in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Brighton - the Green 'led' council is busy authorising student accommodation blocks in its key areas as fast as it can. This is why the council is made up of Greens and the loonier fringes of Labour (read Momentum) as students are hardly likely to vote Tory (at least until they are about 30 and see the light). Funny, if a Tory council were doing this, you would be deafened by the shouts of 'Gerrymandering'.

BTW, I had no idea that this by-election was taking place (and I try to keep abreast of what's going on). Did someone die, or was it another case of 'wanting to spend more time with the family' (i.e caught doing something they shouldn't have)?

Just a point of order, is it not Democratic People's Republic of Brighton.

The can then re-use DPRK surplus, just overlaying the last initial?

They're about as rational.

"We now go to local news....."

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philc

LE
Kier will be very quiet today, Labour won 11,000 seats in 2017 & 7000 in 2019, today 600, talk about collapse. Any idea that Labour have that they will make gains in the SE 0f England as they lose the North are farcical.
 
Only 53% turnout though.

The usual assessment that "the motivated turn out at by-elections, versus a higher turnout out at general elections" which may well reverse the place for the conservatives.
This kind of loss in the SE was predicted months ago, the opposite of the red wall losses for Labour but iirc the Conservative losses will not be greater than their gains - can't remember where I read it nor bothered to search
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
It's easy to overstate the significance of this result but, and speaking as someone with a Lib Dem MP, it's not really a surprise to anyone who lives in this neck of the woods.

There are a series of commuter belt constituencies full of fluffy types and earnest thirty somethings who voted Remain, and are either employed in trendy sectors where reality rarely ventures or tend to have well paid and secure jobs in middle management - either in the Public Sector or in the stodgier parts of the Private Sector. In addition there are the mummies who used to have high-powered professional jobs but gave them up to have kids and whose fate now is to consume expensive skinny whites, fight the aging process and get terribly anxious about stuff.

The overwhelming characteristics of this sorry mass are to be opinionated, entitled and formidably ignorant. That formidable ignorance feeds an absolute terror of being on the wrong side of any issue socially - something the Remain Campaign tapped into effectively when painting Brexit supporters as thick racists. This incurious group excels at responding correctly to social cues, which is core to their success, and is consequently rather relaxed at the prospect of being told what to think and having clear boundaries and lines to take on any given issue. The Lib Dems are their natural home.

I would expect to see more of this type of result in this type of constituency as English politics realigns. The Lib Dems will be the party of Davos Man and carry the flame of Blairism into rich areas where the middle classes want to save the aardvark, pretend that Grandpa was a miner and have as little to do with their poorer fellow-countrymen as possible. The Tories will consolidate in the more mainstream constituencies and Labour will lurk in its ethnic minority strongholds and odd places like Merseyside, though Merseyside itself might reasonably be considered to be an ethnic minority stronghold.

The old assumption that rich areas are automatically Tory no longer applies. The political religion of the western elites is now almost uniformly ultra-liberal and a whole new political layer cake is developing in this country which reflects that change - as last night's result shows.
 
Two issues decided the result. HS2 and, the proposed change to planning regulations

It's not at all surprising. HS2 is a hugely expensive, damaging and disruptive solution to a problem that exists predominantly in the minds of those who will profit from its construction.

And you only have to take a short trip down the Met line to see the effect that relaxed planning control is having on the construction of high-density housing. It seems that nothing at all was learnt from the 1960s and 70s.
 
Can I just say, as no one else has, I would

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It's never been the same since they closed the Amersham steelworks.
There is some fecking serious money in that neck of the woods - was staying in a pub as digs in a different lifetime around there. Half of the punters looked like Wurzel Gummidge and got collected in Rollers or Bentleys.

Best Cox's Pippins I've ever had as well.
 
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The Tories need someone into Data Science to crunch the numbers.

Didn't they have someone like that?
Are you following what he's saying on the site that shall not be named?

ETA - from your post above yes but leaving for this:

From the same place....
 
The Lib-Dems will have been chucking everything at this by-election including the kitchen sink. It’s what they do in these situations. There will have been hundreds of them turning up especially at the weekends.

Occasionally, it pays off!
 
The Lib-Dems will have been chucking everything at this by-election including the kitchen sink. It’s what they do in these situations. There will have been hundreds of them turning up especially at the weekends.

Occasionally, it pays off!

If that is true, then the fact that the Tories never bothered to speaks volumes.
 
The whole party then?

You’d be surprised just how many people are Lib Dem supporters.

A lot of their support comes from middle class church goers who won’t vote Tory because they don’t like the avarice associated with the more extreme Tory party sections and would never ever vote for the atheist leaning socialists.

They have a sizeable following. It just hasn’t in recent years managed to get many of them into parliament.

By-elections like this one though can be right up their street. Chesham etc is a middle class area and the low turnout has let them slip through the middle and parachute their candidate into the seat.

Just needed that army of door knockers and leafleteers to turn up and convince the faithful that if they get out and vote, they’re in with a chance!
 
You’d be surprised just how many people are Lib Dem supporters.

A lot of their support comes from middle class church goers who won’t vote Tory because they don’t like the avarice associated with the more extreme Tory party sections and would never ever vote for the atheist leaning socialists.

They have a sizeable following. It just hasn’t in recent years managed to get many of them into parliament.

By-elections like this one though can be right up their street. Chesham etc is a middle class area and the low turnout has let them slip through the middle and parachute their candidate into the seat.

Just needed that army of door knockers and leafleteers to turn up and convince the faithful that if they get out and vote, they’re in with a chance!
Their failure to be elected comes down to their local party do gooder image - I've voted Lib Dem in the past but that was for Ming - different kettle of fish.

My local candidates have failed to win me over - same for Labour.
 

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