Liberal Democrats take Tory stronghold with historic win in Chesham and Amersham by-election shock horror

Well this will have soured Boris's porridge this morning! That is a huge turnround and while all sorts of spin will be put on it the Tories will be having a WTF happened meeting sometime soon!

Labour vote almost totally collapsed but this won't bring Sir K down as it would be stupid of Labour to take the media's eye off the Tories. They will be looking to see if this is the start of Labour votes going to Libs, which is a real possibility. Labour voters so pissed off with the Party that their vote will go to Lib Dems - run that over the country and we could see the Party fortunes between the two swapping.

This will have made a great start to the weekend for @wetsmonkey :)

Why would a Conservative voter cheer the loss of a safe seat to the Lib Dems?
 
This is potentially serious for the Tories. We cannot accept the Labour loss of the Red Wall, without also accepting that similar things can happen elsewhere. And Labour's loss of the Red Wall began with just the sort of small, reduced turnouts/eating away into majorities seen in the local elections.
 

Norsemaid

Old-Salt
There was a ward election in my county yesterday as well and tne Lib dem candidate narrowly won over the Conservative candidate.
My county has a history of flip flopping between the Lib Dems and Conservative party with the Conservatives winning more often than not .
If this is a wake up for the Conservatives and they take heed then it might actually work, in their favour the next time the general election is held .
Assuming of course that the Conservatives don't get too twitchy with Boris , force a leadership election and we have another election in a year or so time with the new leader. I'm no Boris fan but a government that can put a decent length between GE would be very welcome as we need time to recover from the pandemic .
 
I live in the area and I would love to know how much they spent on this. I have never known anything like it, we were constantly bombarded with leaflets and door knockers. The place is littered with posters and placards too. It has felt like we live in some sort of lovey liberal reeducation camp.
There was some suggestion that the demographic has changed with Lib Dem voters moving to the area from London. Does that sound feasible? ETA, Guido's thoughts:
1624002799407.png
 
Why would a Conservative voter cheer the loss of a safe seat to the Lib Dems?

You have been made Takfir upon as the wrong sort of "Conservative" and your blood is now Halal?

Have to say, years of reading Jihadist propaganda makes the current "Conservative Party" quite easy to understand.

If you could just turn out and vote for Team Blue and STFU that'd be really nice.

Be really nicer if you have some wedge to drop off to Central Office, and a honour or sinecure could be coming your way? Bit like the medieval Church, you'll be OK until you 'need' to be a heretic and then burnt at the stake.

Bit like Jacques de Molay, last Grand Master of the Knights Templar- you'd have thought being the leader of an order loyal to the Church would get him some credit. Nope, to the stake with him.

Ex%C3%A9cution_de_Jacques_de_Molay.jpg
 
There was some suggestion that the demographic has changed with Lib Dem voters moving to the area from London. Does that sound feasible? ETA, Guido's thoughts:
View attachment 582408
The Tories need someone into Data Science to crunch the numbers.

Didn't they have someone like that?
 
There was some suggestion that the demographic has changed with Lib Dem voters moving to the area from London. Does that sound feasible?
Possible, but I'm more inclined to think it's a one-off protest vote: Tory supporters staying at home and Lab supporters voting tactically to get anyone other than a Tory elected.

Agree strongly that the Tories have been complacent recently and haven't looked after their core voters so much. It's going to be an interesting run up to the next election ;)
 
Thats quite a reversal in fortunes. And Chesham and Amersham for heavens sake, the Limp Dem style of writing course must have produced some serious works of fiction to scare the blue rinse brigade and 'late' of the City residents!
Sir K will get his marching orders from his punchy left flank, he can't continue in this champagne socialist way.

I am not sure how much longer a lot of these conservative safe havens will be about. We have a mass exodus leaving the city and moving around these parts. With people being allowed to work from home more even when life gets back to normal it means people don't want to be in the city. Over the last year the change has been extremely noticeable. Especially on the local 'faceache' pages where lots of lovies are already complaining about the countryside and the fact it has tractors, manure and men in tweed with shotguns.
 
This is potentially serious for the Tories.


Its one by election, when it happens several times, then they might have cause to worry.
 
There was some suggestion that the demographic has changed with Lib Dem voters moving to the area from London. Does that sound feasible? ETA, Guido's thoughts:
View attachment 582408

Absolutely, I just posted that exact thing before I read this reply. The mass exodus is huge. Houses are being sold in days as everyone pours out of the city. Most businesses going forward look like they will do one or two days a week in the office so people are happy to be further away and commute more for those days.
 
Absolutely, I just posted that exact thing before I read this reply. The mass exodus is huge. Houses are being sold in days as everyone pours out of the city. Most businesses going forward look like they will do one or two days a week in the office so people are happy to be further away and commute more for those days.
People have woke/Left attitudes but don't like the city that creates, so move to a well-off, mainly white, area...hypocrisy isn't a strong enough word.
ETA: there's also the Uni issue - 50% of people go to University and they are now adults, some with the attitudes they picked up in Uni, which are not conservative (small C).
Also, do we take it that the Liberals have weathered the storm re. being part of the Coalition Govt?
 
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They might want to be a bit careful about "punishment contracts" being awarded.

I think the "you are to thank us for our largesse" message has been received, but it woudn't do to alienate people after one mid-term by-election?

I wonder how many of those constituencies were former Labour ones prior to the last election though? The conservatives are piling a lot of money into those, and I suspect this is a smoke and mirrors job by Labour.
 
Possible, but I'm more inclined to think it's a one-off protest vote: Tory supporters staying at home and Lab supporters voting tactically to get anyone other than a Tory elected.

Agree strongly that the Tories have been complacent recently and haven't looked after their core voters so much. It's going to be an interesting run up to the next election ;)

Well, they haven't been donating as much as they should then. Merely voting for the party? Pah.

Donations Sir; the choice of Lords. Then good things will happen.
 

AlienFTM

MIA
Book Reviewer
Its one by election, when it happens several times, then they might have cause to worry.
Sitting government loses mid-term by-election has been the norm for decades. Remember a few weeks ago sitting government took a seat mid-term from the main opposition and it was a surprise?

This is nothing like that. As has been stated, all it changes is the Lib Dems need a bigger minibus and Captain Hindsight needs to keep an eye over his shoulder for a Corbynista with an ice axe.

Tory seat count reverts to General election value. Meh.
 
Only 53% turnout though.

The usual assessment that "the motivated turn out at by-elections, versus a higher turnout out at general elections" which may well reverse the place for the conservatives.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if the breakdown in demographics show a swing of Women Conservative voters to the lib Dems on this lower turnout. In my time, the NIMBY was strongest in the female and HS2 and planning laws are both the sorts of buttons pushed to generate a protest movement.

This is a warning to the Tories that they're should never stop listening as Cameron/May seemed to have done. Because the goal of every opposition party is to dig out a local issue: 'send a message to your betters' and push the clarion call of 'time for a change'.
 
Who put 50p in the d*ckhead?


Can I just chuckle at the Mekon alleging someone else is overconfident and wrong? I mean for a chap who wrote his whole life about how government was done wrong if only he could run it, was in government for a year and appears to have screwed it, and is now back writing about how government is done wrong.....?
 
This is potentially serious for the Tories. We cannot accept the Labour loss of the Red Wall, without also accepting that similar things can happen elsewhere. And Labour's loss of the Red Wall began with just the sort of small, reduced turnouts/eating away into majorities seen in the local elections.
Look at Oxfordshire, in the District elections the red wall started to be rebuilt. Traditional Political bastions cannot rely on the electorate, if they don't listen to them and then do what they ask.
The don't worry your pretty little heads approach doesn't wash, if they don't listen to the electorate they go - simple.
 
This is potentially serious for the Tories. We cannot accept the Labour loss of the Red Wall, without also accepting that similar things can happen elsewhere. And Labour's loss of the Red Wall began with just the sort of small, reduced turnouts/eating away into majorities seen in the local elections.
Politics is slowly turning on its head, and in some respects reflecting American domestic politics. In addition to parochial issues, Boris's approach to Brexit appealed to traditional Labour voters who, paradoxically, are quite conservative in their outlook and have eschewed the sneering wokeism of the metropolitan elite leading Labour (see also 'Taking the knee'). Amersham is full of affluent (former) Conservative supporters who are more liberal in outlook and are, inter alia, not happy with the impact of Brexit (trade to the EU has plummeted since the beginning of the year, as an example) and appear not to care for his school-boy fibbing bluster. I don't see this as a shift towards Lib Dems - rather, they chose a least worse option.

E2A: And let's not forget the immediate impact of the pandemic and the Government's U turn on lockdown, ruining the summer for many people who have had their support for the Government - and Boris in particular - sorely strained.
 
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There was some suggestion that the demographic has changed with Lib Dem voters moving to the area from London. Does that sound feasible? ETA, Guido's thoughts:
View attachment 582408
Same thing has happened in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Brighton - the Green 'led' council is busy authorising student accommodation blocks in its key areas as fast as it can. This is why the council is made up of Greens and the loonier fringes of Labour (read Momentum) as students are hardly likely to vote Tory (at least until they are about 30 and see the light). Funny, if a Tory council were doing this, you would be deafened by the shouts of 'Gerrymandering'.

BTW, I had no idea that this by-election was taking place (and I try to keep abreast of what's going on). Did someone die, or was it another case of 'wanting to spend more time with the family' (i.e caught doing something they shouldn't have)?
 
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