Lebanon

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by NigG, Jan 12, 2011.

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  1. Is it anywhere near Lebanon?
     
  2. Yes. I'm a mong
     
  3. I think HA and Aoun may have over played their hand here. They've had a practical veto power for some years and were hoping the Syrians and Saudis could sort out a deal.

    HA are by far the largest and most coherent and competent political force in the country. However it's hard to see them forming any sort of government without a large Sunni block onside and Hariris guys have big money Saudi backing. HA have always played on the unfair sectarian imbalance of Lebanese politics tilting the other way is going to expose them to the same sort of attack. So I doubt that is going to happen.

    A dangerous waiting game is liable to follow with HA feinting towards taking control. During which Bibi is not unlikely to launch his long planned revenge for 06 which is maybe what Nasrallah is counting on. Nothing like a ham fisted IDF blitzkrieg to restore their waining legitimacy as a resistance movement.
     
  4. A legitimate resistance movement to what exactly? They are currently an independent political and missile equipped military power within Lebanon and not an underground movement fighting for independence. Currently nobody is expecting imminent hostilities here, but that is not to say (whether Hezb had kept the coalition together or not) that another round of fighting will take place at some point in the future.
     
  5. Please don't let themn destroy the Bekka valley, some of the best red wine in the world comes from there!
     
  6. Trans-sane

    Trans-sane LE Book Reviewer

    Seconded. Chateau Mussar is heavenly. If they do turn the feckers into a glass car park. If the french haven't got there first. Vineyeards mostly run by their ex-pats as far as I know.
     
  7. Clos St Thomas for me, mmmmmmm...............
     
  8. It's your monster, you created it with your equally ham fisted invasion in 1982.
     
  9. Agreed a very drinkable red wine.
    However unfortunately because of the Syrian & now Iranian interference & involvement with Hezbollah, means that they (Hezbollah) are becoming ever more militant! The percentage of Christian Arabs has declined markedly from about 55-60% in the 30's to below 40% now! These were a moderating and possibly civilising influence, where in the 50's & 60's Beirut was considered to be a safe playground for the wealthy of the middle East! But because of the fear & intimidation generated by the more militant Muslim hezbollah, moderate Christians are being driven out!
     
  10. HA are a product mainly of two things Sharon's 82 invasion and the Iranian Revolution, the former is more salient. With that history Israel does not have to be daft enough to occupy the place to pump up HA's base. The likelihood of having to resist a ground invasion once more or Lebanese infrastructure getting trashed by the IAF is a pretty good mobilizer.

    The 06 war did HA a power of good across the whole Arab world, Nasrallah fat mug was pretty popular even in Egypt for a while, that's wearing off. All that ineffectual rocketry they've been stockpiling is just Qom's bait in the trap. It's pretty likely that an Israeli government will repeat that mistake in the next couple of years.

    Some folk think the ball will start rolling this Spring: Beware Of The March Ides?: Lebanon-06 Redux? By Jahangir Arasli
     
  11. I don't think that Israel would ever wish to set up another security zone within southern Lebanon again. The original '82 invasion was a result of continual PLO attacks on northern Israel on civilian areas. At the time many Lebanese were enthusiastic to see the PLO removed (state within a state).

    IMHO as both a citizen and a reservist in this country, the reason why Israel went to war in '06 was not a mistake. The ambush & kidnapping of a border patrol were good enough grounds for a substantial response from the Israeli government. How the war was subsequently handled is another subject. I would disagree that the rocketry is ineffective you had to be here at the time to see the damage caused to the northern towns, HA's replenished stockpile is not there as a deterrent and is considered to be far more lethal and far reaching.

    I don't disagree that there will be further conflict, at the moment though this side of the border there is no day to day fear of it being imminent, though as you may know and the author of the article is aware, life in this part of the Middle East can change quickly.
     
  12. The Lebanese also provided endless demonstrations of what suicide bombers were capable off and for once I really do know what I am talking about, Op Hyperion way back in 1983. As a result of that tour have to say I am not a huge fan of the IDF. Sabra and Shatila sowed the seeds of so much that we now live with in the ME. But I for one had hoped that somehow Lebanon was getting better, still want to do a reunion in Beirut one year.
     
  13. That's all true. The PLO was a foul house guest and the Shi'a generally welcomed their expulsion. If the IDF had managed to disentangle itself and get out in a few months HA might have been stillborn. Of course these things aren't so simple, just look at Iraq or Afghanistan and the larger djinn we've inadvertently conjured up in Pakistan. Moshe Dayan was right to fear the consequences of lasting occupations.

    The IDF has indulged in an admirably severe self criticism about 06. I agree with you that some sort of response was needed, just not so poorly focused, the breadth combined with a lack of depth in commitment for this operation just wasn't wise. Olmert being pretty wobbly at the time I think accounts for the lack of foresight.

    The scale of the reaction is a bit more understandable considering HA's rocketry was genuinely thought to be much more formidable by the IDF brass, they expected much worse. HA did manage to seriously disrupt the economy of Northern Israel with their missiles, the buggers hoped for a far bigger pile of skulls and I've read were rather disappointed. You are probably right that they will have been working on that, HA are a diligent bunch and Qom is pouring money into their coffers. Having learnt something from 82 this does present a genuine dilemma for Israel.
    Right there as well and usually for the worse unfortunately.
     

  14. Sabra and Shatila was where David became Goliath and lost any claims to the moral high ground.

    And Hizbullah learned many valuable lessons in the Summer War in 2006 and will have become a far more formidable enemy than the already pretty formidable one Israel found itself fighting in 2006.
    The IDF's performance in Cast Lead showed they had become obsessively casualty averse. Well, you can use utter destruction by air and artillery bombardment when fighting a rag tag militia in a highly built up area like the Gaza, those tactics won't work in Lebanon.
    The main weakness Hizbullah had in 2006 was a lack of modern MANPADS, you can be sure they've fixed that one now.
    2006 was the first time the IDF fought a highly trained, volunteer army with modern weapons, and it showed.