Lebanon

#2
Is it anywhere near Lebanon?
 
#4
I think HA and Aoun may have over played their hand here. They've had a practical veto power for some years and were hoping the Syrians and Saudis could sort out a deal.

HA are by far the largest and most coherent and competent political force in the country. However it's hard to see them forming any sort of government without a large Sunni block onside and Hariris guys have big money Saudi backing. HA have always played on the unfair sectarian imbalance of Lebanese politics tilting the other way is going to expose them to the same sort of attack. So I doubt that is going to happen.

A dangerous waiting game is liable to follow with HA feinting towards taking control. During which Bibi is not unlikely to launch his long planned revenge for 06 which is maybe what Nasrallah is counting on. Nothing like a ham fisted IDF blitzkrieg to restore their waining legitimacy as a resistance movement.
 
#5
.... Nothing like a ham fisted IDF blitzkrieg to restore their waining legitimacy as a resistance movement.
A legitimate resistance movement to what exactly? They are currently an independent political and missile equipped military power within Lebanon and not an underground movement fighting for independence. Currently nobody is expecting imminent hostilities here, but that is not to say (whether Hezb had kept the coalition together or not) that another round of fighting will take place at some point in the future.
 
#6
Please don't let themn destroy the Bekka valley, some of the best red wine in the world comes from there!
 

Trans-sane

LE
Book Reviewer
#7
Please don't let themn destroy the Bekka valley, some of the best red wine in the world comes from there!
Seconded. Chateau Mussar is heavenly. If they do turn the feckers into a glass car park. If the french haven't got there first. Vineyeards mostly run by their ex-pats as far as I know.
 
#8
Clos St Thomas for me, mmmmmmm...............
 
#9
A legitimate resistance movement to what exactly? They are currently an independent political and missile equipped military power within Lebanon and not an underground movement fighting for independence. Currently nobody is expecting imminent hostilities here, but that is not to say (whether Hezb had kept the coalition together or not) that another round of fighting will take place at some point in the future.
It's your monster, you created it with your equally ham fisted invasion in 1982.
 
#10
Seconded. Chateau Mussar is heavenly. If they do turn the feckers into a glass car park. If the french haven't got there first. Vineyeards mostly run by their ex-pats as far as I know.
Agreed a very drinkable red wine.
However unfortunately because of the Syrian & now Iranian interference & involvement with Hezbollah, means that they (Hezbollah) are becoming ever more militant! The percentage of Christian Arabs has declined markedly from about 55-60% in the 30's to below 40% now! These were a moderating and possibly civilising influence, where in the 50's & 60's Beirut was considered to be a safe playground for the wealthy of the middle East! But because of the fear & intimidation generated by the more militant Muslim hezbollah, moderate Christians are being driven out!
 
#11
A legitimate resistance movement to what exactly? They are currently an independent political and missile equipped military power within Lebanon and not an underground movement fighting for independence. Currently nobody is expecting imminent hostilities here, but that is not to say (whether Hezb had kept the coalition together or not) that another round of fighting will take place at some point in the future.
HA are a product mainly of two things Sharon's 82 invasion and the Iranian Revolution, the former is more salient. With that history Israel does not have to be daft enough to occupy the place to pump up HA's base. The likelihood of having to resist a ground invasion once more or Lebanese infrastructure getting trashed by the IAF is a pretty good mobilizer.

The 06 war did HA a power of good across the whole Arab world, Nasrallah fat mug was pretty popular even in Egypt for a while, that's wearing off. All that ineffectual rocketry they've been stockpiling is just Qom's bait in the trap. It's pretty likely that an Israeli government will repeat that mistake in the next couple of years.

Some folk think the ball will start rolling this Spring: Beware Of The March Ides?: Lebanon-06 Redux? By Jahangir Arasli
...
Adding other pieces help to aggregate the grand picture. The Middle East peace negotiations process is in an impasse due to the resume of the Israeli settlements’ construction on the West Bank, and regional tensions are rising. The approaching start of the U.S. Presidential elections campaign in fall 2011, the prospects of an accelerated recognition of the Palestinian state that may lead to its unilateral proclamation, Turkish posturing, the anticipated power transitions in Cairo, Riyadh and Ramallah, an Israeli–Lebanese row over the offshore gas fields, and others variables, separately or together, are contributing to the accelerating risk factors. Beyond that, the winter-spring season offers certain advantages to the technologically inferior non-state adversaries, when clouds, winds, and rains would help mitigating Israel’s airpower, targeting, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. With a combination of all of the mentioned and omitted factors and conditions, a likelihood of radical actors pulling the trigger at the Lebanese–Israeli border or around, to ignite Israel’s overreaction and set up the 2006 redux, objectively rises. And the internal dynamics in the Israel’s military, including changes in the command echelon that are undoubtedly erode Israeli deterrence, may play as a decisive consideration for an overt action.

Conclusion

Impact of civil-military relations is normally contained at the national level. However, the extent of the current CMR developments in Israel goes beyond, creating a perceptional window of vulnerability that, coming in resonance with other factors, may embolden the adverse regional actors and provide a decisive consideration to test water. That is not to insist the war is inevitable, there are still many caveats for it. That is to say, when the impact of HISH dynamics, regional political developments, seasonal factors and some “unknown unknowns” concur with peak effects of the IDF cadres’ rotation, it will potentiality increase significantly, culminating by summer 2011. However, the stage is getting prearranged and a spiral may start to unfold as early as this spring. Beware of the March ides?
 
#12
HA are a product mainly of two things Sharon's 82 invasion and the Iranian Revolution, the former is more salient. With that history Israel does not have to be daft enough to occupy the place to pump up HA's base. The likelihood of having to resist a ground invasion once more or Lebanese infrastructure getting trashed by the IAF is a pretty good mobilizer.
I don't think that Israel would ever wish to set up another security zone within southern Lebanon again. The original '82 invasion was a result of continual PLO attacks on northern Israel on civilian areas. At the time many Lebanese were enthusiastic to see the PLO removed (state within a state).

The 06 war did HA a power of good across the whole Arab world, Nasrallah fat mug was pretty popular even in Egypt for a while, that's wearing off. All that ineffectual rocketry they've been stockpiling is just Qom's bait in the trap. It's pretty likely that an Israeli government will repeat that mistake in the next couple of years.
IMHO as both a citizen and a reservist in this country, the reason why Israel went to war in '06 was not a mistake. The ambush & kidnapping of a border patrol were good enough grounds for a substantial response from the Israeli government. How the war was subsequently handled is another subject. I would disagree that the rocketry is ineffective you had to be here at the time to see the damage caused to the northern towns, HA's replenished stockpile is not there as a deterrent and is considered to be far more lethal and far reaching.

Some folk think the ball will start rolling this Spring
I don't disagree that there will be further conflict, at the moment though this side of the border there is no day to day fear of it being imminent, though as you may know and the author of the article is aware, life in this part of the Middle East can change quickly.
 
B

bokkatankie

Guest
#13
It's your monster, you created it with your equally ham fisted invasion in 1982.
The Lebanese also provided endless demonstrations of what suicide bombers were capable off and for once I really do know what I am talking about, Op Hyperion way back in 1983. As a result of that tour have to say I am not a huge fan of the IDF. Sabra and Shatila sowed the seeds of so much that we now live with in the ME. But I for one had hoped that somehow Lebanon was getting better, still want to do a reunion in Beirut one year.
 
#14
I don't think that Israel would ever wish to set up another security zone within southern Lebanon again. The original '82 invasion was a result of continual PLO attacks on northern Israel on civilian areas. At the time many Lebanese were enthusiastic to see the PLO removed (state within a state).
That's all true. The PLO was a foul house guest and the Shi'a generally welcomed their expulsion. If the IDF had managed to disentangle itself and get out in a few months HA might have been stillborn. Of course these things aren't so simple, just look at Iraq or Afghanistan and the larger djinn we've inadvertently conjured up in Pakistan. Moshe Dayan was right to fear the consequences of lasting occupations.

IMHO as both a citizen and a reservist in this country, the reason why Israel went to war in '06 was not a mistake. The ambush & kidnapping of a border patrol were good enough grounds for a substantial response from the Israeli government. How the war was subsequently handled is another subject. I would disagree that the rocketry is ineffective you had to be here at the time to see the damage caused to the northern towns, HA's replenished stockpile is not there as a deterrent and is considered to be far more lethal and far reaching.
The IDF has indulged in an admirably severe self criticism about 06. I agree with you that some sort of response was needed, just not so poorly focused, the breadth combined with a lack of depth in commitment for this operation just wasn't wise. Olmert being pretty wobbly at the time I think accounts for the lack of foresight.

The scale of the reaction is a bit more understandable considering HA's rocketry was genuinely thought to be much more formidable by the IDF brass, they expected much worse. HA did manage to seriously disrupt the economy of Northern Israel with their missiles, the buggers hoped for a far bigger pile of skulls and I've read were rather disappointed. You are probably right that they will have been working on that, HA are a diligent bunch and Qom is pouring money into their coffers. Having learnt something from 82 this does present a genuine dilemma for Israel.
I don't disagree that there will be further conflict, at the moment though this side of the border there is no day to day fear of it being imminent, though as you may know and the author of the article is aware, life in this part of the Middle East can change quickly.
Right there as well and usually for the worse unfortunately.
 
#15
The Lebanese also provided endless demonstrations of what suicide bombers were capable off and for once I really do know what I am talking about, Op Hyperion way back in 1983. As a result of that tour have to say I am not a huge fan of the IDF. Sabra and Shatila sowed the seeds of so much that we now live with in the ME. But I for one had hoped that somehow Lebanon was getting better, still want to do a reunion in Beirut one year.

Sabra and Shatila was where David became Goliath and lost any claims to the moral high ground.

And Hizbullah learned many valuable lessons in the Summer War in 2006 and will have become a far more formidable enemy than the already pretty formidable one Israel found itself fighting in 2006.
The IDF's performance in Cast Lead showed they had become obsessively casualty averse. Well, you can use utter destruction by air and artillery bombardment when fighting a rag tag militia in a highly built up area like the Gaza, those tactics won't work in Lebanon.
The main weakness Hizbullah had in 2006 was a lack of modern MANPADS, you can be sure they've fixed that one now.
2006 was the first time the IDF fought a highly trained, volunteer army with modern weapons, and it showed.
 
#16
Hizbullah learned many valuable lessons in the Summer War in 2006 and will have become a far more formidable enemy than the already pretty formidable one Israel found itself fighting in 2006. .
The IDF also learnt lessons from '06. Every reputable armed forces looks at the way it does business after (& sometimes during conflict) and changes it's SOPs accordingly. On the tactical level those changes have been minimal.

The IDF's performance in Cast Lead showed they had become obsessively casualty averse. Well, you can use utter destruction by air and artillery bombardment when fighting a rag tag militia in a highly built up area like the Gaza, those tactics won't work in Lebanon.
The Cast Lead op was very deliberately conducted on the ground and the troops had trained for it well in advance as it is an obvious area of operations for the army.
Every army belonging to a modern democratic country tends to be casualty averse as it has a greater impact politically especially when it is a citizen's army like the IDF. However, the Cast Lead op was no more casualty averse as an op then usual.
The IDF tactics employed in Gaza and those employed in Lebanon are different.
 
#17
Then you will lose again.
I dont think so, when I say tactical, I am talking about "on the ground engagements". The changes have been more apparent further up the "food chain". I wonder what you base your knowledge on other then generalisations or dodgy news articles.
 
#18
I dont think so, when I say tactical, I am talking about "on the ground engagements". The changes have been more apparent further up the "food chain". I wonder what you base your knowledge on other then generalisations or dodgy news articles.
Your infantry tactics were woefull, even your elite forces took heavy casualties when suckered into ambushes. Your conscripts were particularly bad both in tactics and discipline and their general unwillingness to close and take casualties in close combat was well noted. They were clearly unprepared and unwilling to accept the concept of bloody hand to hand fighting after decades of dealing with kids with rocks.

Tanks? Merkava vs el cheapo Russian ATGMS is one thing, but big boys toys like Milan did the business.

Your Navy? Pfft! Amatuer night off Beruit just about describes it.

Air Force? You never suppressed incoming rocket fire despite have complete mastery of the air. Hizbullah were still firing rockets from positions right up near the border to the beginning of the cease fire.

I'm sure enough you lot will be suckered once more into a fight with Hizbullah at a time yet again of their choosing and will once more be found wanting. Israel is finding the old truth that while conscript armies are good at defending their home turf against aggression, they do rather poorly when attacking well motivated professional troops fully determined to stand and die defending theirs.

The myth of the IDF was forged in large scale tank battles against poorly trained conscripts in monkey model tanks in the 50's and 60's. Your nearly came unstuck in 1973 when the Egyptians especially showed some rather surprising tactical elan.
1982 showed that you were not any good at low intensity warfare against irregular forces - your tactics of standing back and shelling the crap out of Beruit was a PR disaster of epic proportions as your carefully crafted image of 'plucky little Israel defending itself against the big bad arabs' was blown apart and ultimately buried along with the women and children of Shabra and Shatila. And 2006 busted the IDF's 'Myth of Invincibility' once and for all.

My sources? Many of them are USMC and still remember rather bitterly the IDF's shenanigans with them in Beruit in 1982/3.

"The following is the complete text of a letter from General Robert H. Barrow, Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, to Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. General Barrow sent a copy of the letter to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

March 14, 1983

Dear Mr. Secretary:

I must formally register my deep concern over the two unprovoked incidents in Beirut of this past weekend involving Marines of the Multinational Force and members of the Israeli Defense Forces. I had considered commenting on earlier incidents between Marines and the IDF but corrective measures, which were rapidly implemented in February 1983, appeared to defuse the situation. I can no longer remain silent on this continual problem of provocation from the IDF.

In addition to the U.S. MNF incidents, I have received information concerning serious harassing incidents by the IDF of U.S. officers attached to the United Nations Truce Supervisory Organization (UNTSO). These particular incidents involved USMC and USA officers in life-threatening situations, replete with verbal degradation of the officers, their uniform and country. Unfortunately, and of greater concern to me, incidents of this nature are the rule, rather than the exception.

It is evident to me, and the opinion of the U.S. Commanders afloat and ashore, that the incidents between the Marines and the IDF are timed, orchestrated, and executed for obtuse Israeli political purposes. The U.S. has been prompt and forthcoming in defusing previous problems and has established a viable communications procedure between the Marines and IDF. The IDF, however, persist in creating serious incidents.

I am distinctly proud to have Marines participating both as members of the Multinational Force and with UNTSO under the auspices of the United Nations. It is inconceivable to me why Americans -serving in peacekeeping roles-must be harassed, endangered, and degraded by an ally.

Previous demarches and diplomatic initiatives have not eliminated difficulties between our Marines and the IDF. Additionally, the expansion of communications links and the use of Liaison Officers will not preclude additional problems, unless the attitude and actions of the Israelis are altered. It is time for firm and strong action, to demonstrate to the Israelis that a role as a peacekeeper does not presume weakness. If anything, the Israelis should respect our efforts in this region.

Warm personal regards,

Sincerely,

R. H. Barrow"


Nothing much changed over the years, has it?

"The U.N. observers killed when an Israeli bomb hit their bunker in Lebanon Tuesday called an Israeli military liaison about 10 times in the six hours before they died to warn that aerial attacks were getting close to their position, a U.N. officer said."

CNN.com - U.N.: Observers made many calls before strike - Jul 26, 2006
 
#19
Your infantry tactics were woefull, even your elite forces took heavy casualties when suckered into ambushes. Your conscripts were particularly bad both in tactics and discipline and their general unwillingness to close and take casualties in close combat was well noted. They were clearly unprepared and unwilling to accept the concept of bloody hand to hand fighting after decades of dealing with kids with rocks.
I would dispute that, you are turning the facts. HA by their very nature would only stand and fight if cornered. They employ guerilla tactics of ambush, shoot & scoot, using civpop for cover. There are many accounts of CQB and the IDF did not back down. Casualties were a result.

Tanks? Merkava vs el cheapo Russian ATGMS is one thing, but big boys toys like Milan did the business.
The older variants of MBT were inequal to the cutting edge AT missiles supplied to Hez. The MkIV from memory was very much up to the job. IDF armour technology is extremely capable.

Your Navy? Pfft! Amatuer night off Beruit just about describes it..
I am not an expert at naval operations Israeli or otherwise and the missile strike was a balls up. Other then that the navy has its uses and usually performs them well.

Air Force? You never suppressed incoming rocket fire despite have complete mastery of the air. Hizbullah were still firing rockets from positions right up near the border to the beginning of the cease fire..
The army & a/force never expected to put a full stop to missile fire. The long & heavy range missiles (bigger signature and more easily identified) were eliminated out in the initial aerial assaults in depth. The smaller and shorter range missiles were too numerous as they are quickly set up and the firing unit can displace fast making it nigh on impossible to get to everything in time or within a short time after. This was known at the time as was the fact that Hez had a large capability and in large quantities.

I'm sure enough you lot will be suckered once more into a fight with Hizbullah at a time yet again of their choosing and will once more be found wanting. Israel is finding the old truth that while conscript armies are good at defending their home turf against aggression, they do rather poorly when attacking well motivated professional troops fully determined to stand and die defending theirs...
Oddly enough, history HAS proved that the IDF is an army that uses offence for defence. You would know this if you studied it's tactics & strategy a bit more closely.

The myth of the IDF was forged in large scale tank battles against poorly trained conscripts in monkey model tanks in the 50's and 60's. Your nearly came unstuck in 1973 when the Egyptians especially showed some rather surprising tactical elan.
1982 showed that you were not any good at low intensity warfare against irregular forces - your tactics of standing back and shelling the crap out of Beruit was a PR disaster of epic proportions ....
Lebanon '82 was not "low intensity" as you say. Ref Beirut do you think house to house fighting is a better way to take a hostile city?

My sources? Many of them are USMC and still remember rather bitterly the IDF's shenanigans with them in Beruit in 1982/3.....
That is an external source from 30 years ago. It would be like using the Falklands campaign as an example of upto date tactics / operations / etc in the British army when they operated in Iraq or A'stan.

You have an obvious loathing for Israel, you use sweeping generalisations to justify your points. Back to the '06 issue, nobody thinks / thought that Hez would be a walkover. Their ability was never underestimated in terms of fighting ability. War is a vicious affair, especially when it is fought on your own doorstep and not in far away theatres that an army can withdraw from when the politicians decide to do so. There is no luxury of time or space.
 
B

bokkatankie

Guest
#20
You have an obvious loathing for Israel, you use sweeping generalisations to justify your points. Back to the '06 issue, nobody thinks / thought that Hez would be a walkover. Their ability was never underestimated in terms of fighting ability. War is a vicious affair, especially when it is fought on your own doorstep and not in far away theatres that an army can withdraw from when the politicians decide to do so. There is no luxury of time or space.
Why is it that every time someone criticises the Israelis’ we get the loathing and just stopping short of Anti-Semitic response. Your Army has sown what you reep.

Sadly your army in Beirut in 1982/3 was acting in a way that was simply not acceptable in any war.

Having, narrowly, avoided, being run down by a Merkava whilst in a Ferret AC, the tactics employed against the peacekeepers were deliberately provocative.

Your Army surrounded Sabra and Shatila and allowed Christian militia to butcher every women, child and old man. This is after you gave safe passage to the PLO (young fighting age Palestinians) to Libya.

The Peacekeeping (MNF) was deployed in an attempt to stop further slaughter (sponsored by the Israeli’s or in retaliation). Our welcome to Beirut was your soldiers “clearing” .50 cal HMG into our building.

As I have said earlier the seeds of the ongoing trouble in the ME were well and truly sown and you wonder why they do not trust you in negotiations?
 

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