Lebanese Government Soldiers

#1
An interesting statement from the Lebanese defence minister - "we will defend our country against any invasion"

What do we know about Lebanese forces? I condemn any acts of terrorism and organisations such as Hezbollah, but the Israeli offensive is decidedly 'heavy handed' - Surely!? Assuming Israel do push into Lebanon, is it likely they will get a 'bloody nose' (or even worse) or would it be complete and decisive victory for Israel?

Something tells me these Lebanese are not going to let Israel simply rock up and start pushing them about!! I'm becoming massively p1ssed off at Israel's general conduct here and I think, Hezbollah and terrorism aside, that Israel deserve a mighty kicking for destroying infrastructure etc in and around Beirut.

We now all know that mass air strikes, artillery and battalion after battalion of infantryman will not succeed against determined acts of terrorism - it's a special forces domain who would have an option to call in said assets. Destroy Hezbollah but leave the innocents out of it, Israel!!

PS Some leadership here Blair and Co!!
 
#4
tomahawk6 said:
The government of Lebanon does not control its own territory if they did Israel wouldnt be pounding Lebanon.
Given the Syrian withdrawal last year, I see no reason why Lebanon should not defend itself. It doesn't have an air force to speak of but it does posess an army with potentially decent assets - commando regiments, artillery, armour etc, who, at the direction of their powers that be, can and will attempt to take on the Israelis.
 
#5
Cutsy said:
tomahawk6 said:
The government of Lebanon does not control its own territory if they did Israel wouldnt be pounding Lebanon.
Given the Syrian withdrawal last year, I see no reason why Lebanon should not defend itself. It doesn't have an air force to speak of but it does posess an army with potentially decent assets - commando regiments, artillery, armour etc, who, at the direction of their powers that be, can and will attempt to take on the Israelis.
They were afraid to take on hizbollah but now will fight the Izzies - give me a break!
Hizbollah are really members of the IRG in civilian clothes. In addition there are IRG troops in southern Lebanon which the Izzies have been fighting the last few days in southern Lebabon. Four soldiers from Egoz special operations unit were killed including a Major and 3 1st Sgt's fighting the Iranians who are fighting from caves/tunnels. Iran has had trouble reinforcing their allies in southern Lebanon I suspect the Syrian border will heat up from IRG units brought in from Iran to take pressure off of southern Lebanon.In actuality this will widen the war.
 
#6
tomahawk6 said:
Hizbollah are really members of the IRG in civilian clothes. In addition there are IRG troops in southern Lebanon which the Izzies have been fighting the last few days in southern Lebabon. Four soldiers from Egoz special operations unit were killed including a Major and 3 1st Sgt's fighting the Iranians who are fighting from caves/tunnels. Iran has had trouble reinforcing their allies in southern Lebanon I suspect the Syrian border will heat up from IRG units brought in from Iran to take pressure off of southern Lebanon.In actuality this will widen the war.
You really are on a different planet!!!!! Where have you got this cr@p from???
 
#7
Cutsy said:
tomahawk6 said:
The government of Lebanon does not control its own territory if they did Israel wouldnt be pounding Lebanon.
Given the Syrian withdrawal last year, I see no reason why Lebanon should not defend itself. It doesn't have an air force to speak of but it does posess an army with potentially decent assets - commando regiments, artillery, armour etc, who, at the direction of their powers that be, can and will attempt to take on the Israelis.
I agree totally that Lebanon has every right to defend itself in the event of an Israeli ground invasion, I also believe that the will, and indeed should take up arms to defend their sovereign territory, but I'm not sure how effective they'd be to be honest. You mention potentially decent assets, that looks good on paper, but what are we talking about in terms of fighting quality and state of equipment? Not to mention the quality of their officers. In my experience of Arab militaries, the basic structure is there, but (with a few notable exceptions I have to say) they suffer from poor leadership as their officer corps doesn't give a fcuk about their men and are more concerned with swaggering about trying to dodge PT. It's a sad fact that in some Arab countries (although I have to be honest - I can't speak for Lebanon), officer selection is based largely on connections and wusta, than leadership ability. Wusta is an Arabic word which vaguely means one's network of contacts who can be used to do things for you, and for whom you're expected to open doors in return.
 
#9
tomahawk6 said:
Merkator why do you doubt what I said ? Its been long established that hizbollah is very closely linked to Iran if not actually IRG personnel in robes.There are IRG troops involved in the rocket attacks on Israel.
Your link, http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153291965414&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull has NO reference to Hezbollah fighters actually being Iranian. You have been so brainwashed by the propaganda you're starting to see Iranians under the bed.

If Iran was so involved in this, why did you own President try to pin it on Syria????
 
#10
Whilst the Jerusalem post item doesn't mention Hezbollah, it has been widely known that being shia, they are very closely linked to Iran, and that they receive a lot of aid from Iran in the way of weaponry and funds. The missile that hit the Israeli ship the other day most probably came from Iran.
However, I wouldn't quite go as far to say that the Iranians themselves are launching these attacks, or that there are Iranian Revolutionary Guard units running loose around southern Lebanon. There's certainly no evidence of that as far as I'm aware.
 
#11
merkator said:
tomahawk6 said:
Merkator why do you doubt what I said ? Its been long established that hizbollah is very closely linked to Iran if not actually IRG personnel in robes.There are IRG troops involved in the rocket attacks on Israel.
Your link, http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153291965414&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull has NO reference to Hezbollah fighters actually being Iranian. You have been so brainwashed by the propaganda you're starting to see Iranians under the bed.
If Iran was so involved in this, why did you own President try to pin it on Syria????
Must be very crowded under there, what with all the 'Commies' etc.....
 
#13
tomahawk6 said:
Merkator why do you doubt what I said ? Its been long established that hizbollah is very closely linked to Iran if not actually IRG personnel in robes.There are IRG troops involved in the rocket attacks on Israel.
Oh yes, apart from being elite soldiers they are also Mullah's in their off time!
Genius statement there T6 (Genius for all the wrong reasons but never mind)

The Lebanese Army is a conscript army about 70,000 strong
but 60% (estimate) of its fixed personnel are Shi'ites.

The other thing is, if the Lebanese Army do fight any Israeli invasion, will the LAF be declared a terrorist organisation by Bush and co?
 
#14
I agree totally that Lebanon has every right to defend itself in the event of an Israeli ground invasion, I also believe that the will, and indeed should take up arms to defend their sovereign territory, but I'm not sure how effective they'd be to be honest. You mention potentially decent assets, that looks good on paper, but what are we talking about in terms of fighting quality and state of equipment? Not to mention the quality of their officers. In my experience of Arab militaries, the basic structure is there, but (with a few notable exceptions I have to say) they suffer from poor leadership as their officer corps doesn't give a fcuk about their men and are more concerned with swaggering about trying to dodge PT. It's a sad fact that in some Arab countries (although I have to be honest - I can't speak for Lebanon), officer selection is based largely on connections and wusta, than leadership ability. Wusta is an Arabic word which vaguely means one's network of contacts who can be used to do things for you, and for whom you're expected to open doors in return.
Surely the other main issue with lebanon and many armies in general is a lack of individual soldiering skills especially marksmanship? Or is the stereotype of firing from the hip or failure to aim just that?
 
#15
tomahawk6 said:
Merkator why do you doubt what I said ? Its been long established that hizbollah is very closely linked to Iran if not actually IRG personnel in robes.

There are IRG troops involved in the rocket attacks on Israel.
What is the evidence for this? Hizbollah is definitely supported by Iran and closely linked, but what is the evidence that they use Iranian Republican Guards? How do they get there - do they go via Iraq? Why would the Lebanese/ Palestinian Shia need a bunch of Iranian National Guards.

Is the main aim of this claim to prove linkage so we can finally fight shoulder to shoulder with the Israelis?

Or is it some claim that Hizbollah are so poor soldiers?
 
#16
Pteranadon said:
tomahawk6 said:
Merkator why do you doubt what I said ? Its been long established that hizbollah is very closely linked to Iran if not actually IRG personnel in robes.

There are IRG troops involved in the rocket attacks on Israel.
What is the evidence for this? Hizbollah is definitely supported by Iran and closely linked, but what is the evidence that they use Iranian Republican Guards? How do they get there - do they go via Iraq? Why would the Lebanese/ Palestinian Shia need a bunch of Iranian National Guards.

Is the main aim of this claim to prove linkage so we can finally fight shoulder to shoulder with the Israelis?

Or is it some claim that Hizbollah are so poor soldiers?
Read "See no evil" by Robert Baer,he wrote about some Iranian Revolutionary Guard types operating in Lebanon in conjunction with Hezbollah.These guy's were directly implicated in the death of the 241 US Marines,the destruction of the Main CIA sattion in Lebanon,and the kidnap and death of William Buckley,the CIA lebanon station Cheif.
 
#17
Bagster said:
I agree totally that Lebanon has every right to defend itself in the event of an Israeli ground invasion, I also believe that the will, and indeed should take up arms to defend their sovereign territory,.
That stands to reason but I would not reckon their chances too well!! IMHO they would be best served by keeping out of the way until the smoke has cleared.

Bagster said:
but I'm not sure how effective they'd be to be honest. You mention potentially decent assets, that looks good on paper, but what are we talking about in terms of fighting quality and state of equipment? .
Well, as all professional armies know it is the what looks good on paper and paperwork that counts. If they had fighting qualities the Lebanese govt may have done something about Hezbolla.

Bagster said:
Not to mention the quality of their officers. In my experience of Arab militaries, the basic structure is there, but (with a few notable exceptions I have to say) they suffer from poor leadership as their officer corps doesn't give a fcuk about their men and are more concerned with swaggering about trying to dodge PT. It's a sad fact that in some Arab countries (although I have to be honest - I can't speak for Lebanon), officer selection is based largely on connections and wusta, than leadership ability. .....
Where do alot of these arab officers get trained?
 
#18
Stratfor article.

Red Alert: Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
Prior to the rise of the Shia in Iraq, Hezbollah -- as a radical Shiite Islamist organization -- was Iran's main asset in the Arab world. In fact, it likely will continue to be used by Tehran as a key tool for furthering Iranian geopolitical interests in the region, until such time as Shiite power has been consolidated in Baghdad and Iran's interests there secured.

In its earliest days, Hezbollah was a classic militant organization -- the creation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite unit of the Iranian military. It was founded as a way to export the ideals of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini's Islamic revolution to the Shiite community of Lebanon, and served as a model for follow-on organizations (some even using the same name) in other Arab states. It did not take long, however, for Hezbollah to emerge in Lebanon as a guerrilla movement, whose fighters were trained in conventional military tactics.

In the mid-1980s, Iran's premier intelligence agency, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), assumed the task of managing Tehran's militant assets -- not just in the Middle East but in other parts of the world as well. This allowed the Iranians, through a special unit within MOIS, to strike at Israeli interests in places as diverse as Latin America and Southeast Asia.

The relationship between MOIS and Hezbollah remains a subject worthy of study in light of the current situation in Lebanon. Of course, Iran has been Hezbollah's chief source of funding and weapons over the years, and the Iranians continue to supply extensive training in weapons, tactics, communications, surveillance and other methods to the militant wing of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The relationship is sufficiently close that the Hezbollah branch in Iran proper recently declared it would unleash militant attacks against Israelis and Americans around the world if given the order by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Tehran insists that Hezbollah is not an arm of official policy.)

We have previously discussed the possibility that Hezbollah might be moved to seize hostages or engage in other militant acts, given the pressure the Israelis now are bringing to bear. There is some question, of course, as to whether Iran might be involved in future militant operations -- and if so, what assets it might use and the modalities that would apply.

An Organizational Model

There is a division of labor of sorts in the way that Iran manages its foreign assets: The IRGC (which is led by a professional military officer with strong ideological credentials as an Islamist) oversees the Lebanese Hezbollah, while MOIS (which almost always is headed by a cleric) manages militant operatives and groups in other parts of the Muslim world -- Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, India. Moreover, MOIS also maintains contacts among the Shiite immigrant populations in non-Muslim countries, including those in the West.

It also is important to note that radical Shiite Islamist ideology is only one factor that shapes Tehran's decisions. Ethnicity and nationalism also play an important role in Iran's dealings with Shiite allies of Arab, South Asian and other descent. The Persians claim a rich cultural heritage, which they view as superior to that of the Arabs. This attitude impacts the level of trust and cooperation between the Iranians and other Shiite groups -- including Hezbollah -- when it comes to sensitive international operations. It is little wonder, then, that the Lebanese organization's sphere of operations does not extend much beyond the Levant.




It follows that Hezbollah is a useful tool for Iran in its dealings with Israel, but in few other areas. However, Iranian intelligence has cultivated numerous groups that can serve its interests in other parts of the world, and it maintains contact with these groups through MOIS operatives placed in diplomatic posts.

A History of Cooperation

Though it has been many years since Hezbollah carried out significant attacks beyond the Middle East, the participation of MOIS agents in some of those attacks is worthy of note. Investigations into the 1988 hijacking of Kuwait Airways Flight 422 out of Bangkok and two bombings in Buenos Aires -- in 1992 and 1994 -- both revealed involvement by MOIS, coordinating with local Hezbollah operatives. However, to provide plausible deniability, the hijacking and bomb teams were deployed from outside the targeted country; the assets in place were used to conduct preoperational surveillance on potential targets.

Up close, what this would mean is that the MOIS officer at the Iranian embassy in the target country or city would maintain close contact with the Hezbollah cells in his area or responsibility. Given the rules of intelligence work, an "official asset" like a diplomat is usually under suspicion and surveillance as an intelligence officer (or IO); therefore, less-prominent Hezbollah members can be used to case potential targets. In a situation where a MOIS agent is believed to be under such tight surveillance that he cannot function effectively, the Iranians might call on the services of a clandestine MOIS agent instead. In the case of the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, the MOIS officer was the Iranian cultural attache, who oversaw the operation from the safety of his embassy office. The Argentines eventually declared seven embassy employees as "persona non grata" due to suspected connections to the bombing.

Upon receiving a "go" order for an operation -- such as assassinations of Iranian dissidents or the kidnappings of Western diplomatic and intelligence personnel (for instance, CIA station chief William F. Buckley in 1984 and U.S. Marine Lt. Col. William R. Higgins in 1988) -- activity levels at the embassy spike. The role of MOIS frequently would be to provide the cash or supply weapons or materials needed for an attack carried out by its "militant assets." In some countries, such as Britain (where Hezbollah bombed a Jewish charity in 1994), it can be difficult to obtain items like blasting caps and explosives; these can be supplied with the protection of a diplomatic pouch.

Many MOIS intelligence operatives have been educated in the United States or in Britain, wear nice suits, are multilingual and move easily in Western social circles -- unlike the IRGC operatives in Lebanon, who, socially speaking, are rougher around the edges. The combination of their brains and Hezbollah's willingness to pursue martyrdom can produce highly formidable capabilities.

With Hezbollah under attack in Lebanon and Iran unable to send significant reinforcements, there is some possibility that Hezbollah might resort to staging an attack abroad as a way of countering the Israeli assault. If so, it is highly likely that operatives already are on the move; the organization has been known to use "off the shelf" operational plans in the past, and its targeting information and surveillance would need to be updated -- regardless of whether an order to strike is actually issued. It is reasonable to believe that Hezbollah would find it advantageous to coordinate with MOIS again, as in past operations. Whether the Iranians would see events through the same lens, however, is much less clear. Tehran might cooperate in an attack only if it is willing to seriously escalate the current conflict in the Middle East -- which, given its many interests in the region, does not appear so far to be the case.

 
#19
Nice cut&paste from your email box Larry.

This does NOTHING to even remotely hint at the cr@p you have come up with. In fact, Stratfor doesn't even provide one solid link between the current Hezbollah actions and Iran.

Still waiting for evidence that "Hizbollah are really members of the IRG in civilian clothes."
 

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