Leader of Iranian Quds Force Terminated by Order of Trump

It is beginning to look like the Iranian regime might have ignited a Ceaușescu December 1989 situation with recent events, with demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere.

Another potential nail in the coffin of the Ayatollahs?,


Life for the average Iranian is not easy, and sooner or later the edifice is going to crack.

Remember another regime favoured by Corbyn in 1989- Erich Honecher's so-called Deutsches Demokratische Republik. Despite a Gestapo-like secret police, the Staats Sicherheit Dienst-the infamous STASI, that regime crumbled. This can and will in time happen in Iran.
The Reunification of Germany really has zero similarities to the current situation in Iran.
Dragging your hatred of Corbyn into this is both pointless and tedious.

I would love to see Iran move away from a theocracy. I hope that there wont be mass slaughter in that transition.
 

quadrapiper

Clanker
I would love to see Iran move away from a theocracy. I hope that there wont be mass slaughter in that transition.
Given there's protests happening at all suggests at least some restraint on the government side.

Optimistically, could see, some time down the road, a shift in power, or at least the work of government: "democracy with Islamic characteristics," or something that leaves the mullahs pondering God and Right while pols get on with the messy, easily-messed-up governing business. Might help if the Americans stopped playing silly buggers in the region.

For discussion, what, on a foundational level, would be the harm to actual Western interests if Iran ended up with the regional power role they apparently want? Let them worry about ISIS, and all the other militias, armed sects, bandits, etc. that they, the Saudis, and local circumstance have brought into being, and provide a counterbalance to the Wahhabi brand of nastiness. Barring Oman, there's not many in the region with anything to crow about re: civil rights, good government, not sponsoring/being infested with terrorists, stability, etc., and Iranian oil's just as good as Arab.
 

NSP

LE
Civilian aircraft use Mode III IFF.
Pedantry: is it not Mode A in civilian transponders? Essentially the same message on the same frequency but continually broadcast. Is it not the case that a Mode III (3) IFF transmits only when interrogated by a friendly-coded unit - else it'd bugger EMCON? Airliners on the other hand transmit continuously...? I.e. military is ping-and-listen; civilian is hear-the-call, so to speak.

I've a vague notion that civvy Mode C also broadcasts an identifier plus altitude string...? As an aside, if I remember rightly setting Mode C to 7500 or 7777 will get ATC sitting upright, sweating and being very attentive as one indicates hijacking and the other a general emergency requiring immediate landing...?

@Toastie
 
Life for the average Iranian is not easy, and sooner or later the edifice is going to crack.

Remember another regime favoured by Corbyn in 1989- Erich Honecher's so-called Deutsches Demokratische Republik ?. Despite a Gestapo-like secret police, the Staats Sicherheit Dienst-the infamous STASI, that regime crumbled. This can and will in time happen in Iran.
Was Bugsy ever in Iran?
 
Pedantry: is it not Mode A in civilian transponders? Essentially the same message on the same frequency but continually broadcast. Is it not the case that a Mode III (3) IFF transmits only when interrogated by a friendly-coded unit - else it'd bugger EMCON? Airliners on the other hand transmit continuously...? I.e. military is ping-and-listen; civilian is hear-the-call, so to speak.

I've a vague notion that civvy Mode C also broadcasts an identifier plus altitude string...? As an aside, if I remember rightly setting Mode C to 7500 or 7777 will get ATC sitting upright, sweating and being very attentive as one indicates hijacking and the other a general emergency requiring immediate landing...?

@Toastie
Yes and no.

The mil equivalent of both civi Mode A and Mode C is Mode 3.

Civi Modes A, C and S only transmit when interrogated by Primary Radar (the big dish you see at airports). It sends a burst of data (see below) which is received by the long, thin, flat antenna you usually see on top of the dish shaped one at airports.

The crew are assigned a code by ATC consisting of 4 numbers between 0 and 7. This identifies the aircraft. There are indeed some “set” numbers:

7000 = I haven’t been assigned a code
7500 = I’ve been hijacked
7600 = My radios have failed
7700 = I’ve got an emergency

The “Mode” bit defines what data is transmitted.

Mode A, an aircraft transmitting a code
Mode C, as above but with an altitude
Mode S, lots of stuff like speed, heading, registration, autopilot settings etc*

It’s all controlled from one small box of tricks on the flightdeck, basically we enter the assigned code called a “squawk” and the box does the rest. Depending on the kit on the ground, the ATC bod can turn the 4 digit number into a callsign on the radar screen and display as much or as little data as they want. They can also filter aircraft out by speed, altitude etc so a guy controlling a block of airspace from say 0’ to 10,000’ would perhaps set the filter to remove anything above 15,000’ because he’s not interested in them.

* Mode S is subtly different because it still uses the assigned code to identify the aircraft in Modes A and C but the Mode S bit is a fixed code that is unique to the airframe itself. Note, this is not the same as the SELCAL code which is a completely different system, essentially a SELCAL Code is the airframe’s phone number for voice comms.

Bolted on to all this is is TCAS, ADS-B and ADS-C but these are out of the scope of your question. Anyone interested, happy to oblige but I’m mindful of thread drift.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Patrick Oliver Cockburn is an Irish journalist who has been a Middle East correspondent since 1979 for the Financial Times and, presently, The Independent. He has written four books on Iraq 's recent history. He won the Martha Gellhorn Prize in 2005, the James Cameron Prize in 2006 and the Orwell Prize for Journalism in 2009.

His latest typically thought-provoking view, FWIW:

Patrick Cockburn: The west is still buying into nonsense claims about Iranian influence in the Middle East


The west is still buying into nonsense claims about Iran’s regional influence
By viewing millions of Shia as Iranian proxy agents, the US and its allies are demonising a historically oppressed people just as Saddam Hussein did

I was in Iraq in April 1991 when government security forces crushed the Shia uprising against Saddam Hussein’s regime, killing tens of thousands and burying their bodies in pits. I had been expelled from Iraq to Jordan at the start of the rebellion in March and then, to my surprise, allowed to return, because Saddam wanted to prove to the world that he was back in control.
I was taken along with other journalists to see Grand Ayatollah al-Khoei, the vastly influential spiritual leader of the Shia in Iraq and elsewhere, who was being held in a nondescript house in Kufa in southern Iraq.

He lay on a couch looking all his 92 years, surrounded by Iraqi security men who were hoping that he would condemn the rebellion.

I asked him what he thought of it. For some minutes I thought he had not heard my question, but then, speaking in a low gasping voice, he said: “What happened in Najaf and other cities is not allowed and was against God.”

His words were deliberately ambiguous, but I had no doubt that he was speaking of the hideous vengeance being exacted by military units loyal to Saddam, the killing of Shia men, women and children regardless of whether or not they had taken part in the uprising.

The Shia had risen up against Saddam in the final days of his defeat in Kuwait by the US-led coalition. While they were not expecting full-scale foreign support, they did believe that the coalition would stop Saddam using his remaining tanks and helicopters against them. But the US conflated the Iraqi Shia with Iran, where the Shia are the overwhelming majority, and had decided that it was not in American interests to see the rebellion succeed.

Coalition forces stood aside as Saddam’s tanks, with helicopters overhead, smashed their way into Shia cities like Karbala, Najaf and Basra, and then began their mass executions.
Three decades later, the US and its allies are still making the same mistake, treating the millions of Shia in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen and Afghanistan as if they were Iranian agents.


Down the centuries, the Shia have been one of the most savagely persecuted religious minorities; they fear today that in the wake of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, they are once again being demonised, as Donald Trump denounces all who oppose the US in the Middle East as Iranian proxies
 
Adam Schiff on CBS: Esper and Pompeo are "overstating and exaggerating what the intelligence shows"
From CNN's Raymond Arke

House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff responded to Secretary of Defense Mark Esper's interview, calling Esper's characterization of the classified briefing on Iran "just plain wrong," Schiff said "On Face the Nation" this morning.
Schiff went on to say there was no discussion of their being four embassies under threat and the he doesn't recall the briefers giving any specifics about a plotted attack on the US embassy in Baghdad.
Schiff said that Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are "overstating and exaggerating what the intelligence shows," warning that is dangerous. Schiff said that other members of the "Gang of Eight" were unsatisfied with the evidence the administration presented suggesting attacks were imminent.



Wag the dog indeed.
The trouble with this story is that Schiff is the biggest liar on capital hill - nothing he says is trustworthy and CNN is the media arm of the Democratic party. Schiff was interviewed countless times on CNN declaring that he had cold hard evidence of Trump colluding with the Russians and declaring that the devon Ninnes memo was lies - fast forward to Nov last year and the IG report into Russian collusion we find out that the whole thing was made up and the devon Nunnes memo was in FACT fully accurate.

He might be correct about the Intel but coming from his mouth it is quite literally meaningless.
 
The trouble with this story is that Schiff is the biggest liar on capital hill - nothing he says is trustworthy and CNN is the media arm of the Democratic party. Schiff was interviewed countless times on CNN declaring that he had cold hard evidence of Trump colluding with the Russians and declaring that the devon Ninnes memo was lies - fast forward to Nov last year and the IG report into Russian collusion we find out that the whole thing was made up and the devon Nunnes memo was in FACT fully accurate.

He might be correct about the Intel but coming from his mouth it is quite literally meaningless.

Maybe, but nothing, zip, zilch, nada from Team Trump about this imminent threat.
 
It is beginning to look like the Iranian regime might have ignited a Ceaușescu December 1989 situation with recent events, with demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere.

Another potential nail in the coffin of the Ayatollahs?,


Life for the average Iranian is not easy, and sooner or later the edifice is going to crack.

Remember another regime favoured by Corbyn in 1989- Erich Honecher's so-called Deutsches Demokratische Republik ?. Despite a Gestapo-like secret police, the Staats Sicherheit Dienst-the infamous STASI, that regime crumbled. This can and will in time happen in Iran.
Ah that close. Question is who steps into the void?
 
Ah that close. Question is who steps into the void?

If the Ayatoillahs fall?

Well, the IRGC will simply step out of the political shadows and take up the job openly.
They can shut down the Bassij, (They hate them), stop the religious day to day stuff, (They have no real interest in that), allow women to dress as they please, (see previous point)… big ticks with most of the population, job jobbed

Ah the joys of unintended regime hierarchy swap consequences.
 
If the Ayatoillahs fall?

Well, the IRGC will simply step out of the political shadows and take up the job openly.
They can shut down the Bassij, (They hate them), stop the religious day to day stuff, (They have no real interest in that), allow women to dress as they please, (see previous point)… big ticks with most of the population, job jobbed

Ah the joys of unintended regime hierarchy swap consequences.
So a popular revolution against the mullahs will see their enforcers take over?

Just like the SS took over after Hitler signed out the mess webley?

Still don't understand why you are posting this pro mullah propaganda.
 
So a popular revolution against the mullahs will see their enforcers take over?

Just like the SS took over after Hitler signed out the mess webley?

Still don't understand why you are posting this pro mullah propaganda.
If Iran goes full retard maybe a choice between a plane ticket or internment would bring about some reality.
 
If the Ayatoillahs fall?

Well, the IRGC will simply step out of the political shadows and take up the job openly.
They can shut down the Bassij, (They hate them), stop the religious day to day stuff, (They have no real interest in that), allow women to dress as they please, (see previous point)… big ticks with most of the population, job jobbed

Ah the joys of unintended regime hierarchy swap consequences.
I presume this prediction will be about as accurate as anything you’ve posted in this or the 737 thread. I.e. not at all
 
So a popular revolution against the mullahs will see their enforcers take over?

Just like the SS took over after Hitler signed out the mess webley?

Still don't understand why you are posting this pro mullah propaganda.
I wouldn’t worry, literally everything else that he’s posted in this and the 737 thread have turned out to be wrong, from the claim that the regime is very popular in Iran to the 737 suffering an uncontained engine failure.
 
Adam Schiff on CBS: Esper and Pompeo are "overstating and exaggerating what the intelligence shows"
From CNN's Raymond Arke

House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff responded to Secretary of Defense Mark Esper's interview, calling Esper's characterization of the classified briefing on Iran "just plain wrong," Schiff said "On Face the Nation" this morning.
Schiff went on to say there was no discussion of their being four embassies under threat and the he doesn't recall the briefers giving any specifics about a plotted attack on the US embassy in Baghdad.
Schiff said that Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are "overstating and exaggerating what the intelligence shows," warning that is dangerous. Schiff said that other members of the "Gang of Eight" were unsatisfied with the evidence the administration presented suggesting attacks were imminent.



Wag the dog indeed.
So sorry for your loss
 
I see from the papers this morning that there is some growing public resistance in Canada on paying for their security. I predict huge rage when they decide to move on after a year to California - there is no way that Megain intends to settle down in Canada away from all her celebrity fake buddies.
Wrong thread maybe?
 

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