...
To elaborate a bit more, the current Saudi threat is way weaker than the implicit Chinese threat of seven years ago, because:
- Saudi Arabia holds fewer dollar assets than China;
- Saudi Arabia’s 2016 economy is far less imposing than China’s 2009 economy;
- The U.S. dollar is even more dominant now than it was in 2009;
- The U.S. economy — in particular the fiscal picture — is in far better shape now than in 2009;
- The array of alternatives to dollar-denominated assets look way worse now than in 2009;
The one difference in the Saudis’ favor is that the kingdom is a U.S. ally, while China is viewed as a rival. This helps explain the administration’s position on this issue (though I suspect its concern is about the precedent this bill would set if it became law). The thing is,
recent Obama interviews and
news storieshighlight the ways in which these ties are fraying. And the very fact that this threat got publicized is not going to improve U.S. attitudes toward Riyadh.
No, the most interesting thing about the revelation of this threat has been the lack of pundit panic in Washington. If anything, the response has been either
a shrug of the shoulders or an
insistence on
calling the Saudi bluff.