"Jaw dropping" crash in global birth rate.

Pray tell.

So far daily deaths from Covid on the dark continent are usually less than 300.
That's reported deaths within cultures that have very different attitudes to authority. Actuals will be both different, and possibly unknowable with any degree of accuracy.

Also, you need to understand what criteria are used to slap the label 'COVID' on the death certificate (if there is one). Was it 'COVID present at time of death', or 'COVID more likely than not', or 'Bugger, we've exhausted out of every other possibility...'?
 
Some interesting conversations on this in the strategy and technology areas that I write in, though.

Want to make lots of money? Don't become an accountant in a few years' time. Nor many of the general medical specialties, either. Artificial intelligence is going to hit those areas and other areas hard. In fact, a lot of what happened to blue collar jobs a couple of decades ago is going to happen to white collar jobs soon.

As to blue collar... companies such as ABB Robotics are being very careful in presentations to say that their products complement and don't replace. The emphasis is on increasing the productivity of the individual, and so allowing high(er)-wage economies to compete either with low-wage economies or to re-shore jobs that went to China and elsewhere.

The reality, of course, is that 'increased productivity' can very quickly get rid of that human in the loop.

That puts a lot of the governments and policy-makers who advocate mass inward migration as a means of addressing the skills shortage under pressure*.

Want to build a house? Pre-fab in a factory and deliver to site. Quality goes up, time to build, and cost, down. Think Huf Haus on a mass scale.

Want a taxi? Who says it needs to have a driver? (Soon, it won't.)

So why 'import' lots of people if you don't need to?




*Acutally, call it what it is in this country: Labour trying to get itself a captive vote among the newcomers.
Its a compelling argument until you take it past a certain tipping point: who's going to buy whatever shïte you're peddling if no-one has any money? Unless a paradigm shift happens around the same time that sees a state salary being paid regardless of your working status, then the whole economic model collapses. That's without accounting for the Henry Ludds that will emerge when the pizza money runs out.
 

Cold_Collation

LE
Book Reviewer
Its a compelling argument until you take it past a certain tipping point: who's going to buy whatever shïte you're peddling if no-one has any money? Unless a paradigm shift happens around the same time that sees a state salary being paid regardless of your working status, then the whole economic model collapses. That's without accounting for the Henry Ludds that will emerge when the pizza money runs out.
Population growth hasn't collapsed. People are still having children and families.

Now, whether in some cases the right people are is another discussion; if we carry on with the situation where only those on benefits or the very wealthy can afford to have large(r) families, then we're in the brown stuff.

But, back to my point. Ever-increasing economic growth is a Ponzi scheme, it just happens to have been bought into by governments and not the needy//stupid/greedy. There's a difference between having a burgeoning economy based on selling lots of stuff, and maintaining quality of life. There's a very good case in some instances for allowing the economy to actually shrink.

Think about it; if we lost 10 million people, we wouldn't need as much to have as much.
 

Awol

LE
That's reported deaths within cultures that have very different attitudes to authority. Actuals will be both different, and possibly unknowable with any degree of accuracy.

Also, you need to understand what criteria are used to slap the label 'COVID' on the death certificate (if there is one). Was it 'COVID present at time of death', or 'COVID more likely than not', or 'Bugger, we've exhausted out of every other possibility...'?
If the Western world, with it’s healthcare, media, sophisticated infrastructure and mostly responsible and compliant populations, is being crippled by Covid, does anyone really think that Africa, without any of these things (and with a suspected susceptibility to it) is escaping so miraculously?

I very much doubt it.
 

AlienFTM

MIA
Book Reviewer
Not hearing much about the outbreak of Yersinia Pestis that killed a 15 yo in Nepal (I think) bearing in mind how quick that spread. methinks perhaps Governments might be exercised. Combination of that and C19........
That's because it was what we called plague 700 years ago.

What disease is caused by Yersinia pestis?
Plague is a disease that affects humans and other mammals. It is caused by the bacterium, Yersinia pestis. Humans usually get plague after being bitten by a rodent flea that is carrying the plague bacterium or by handling an animal infected with plague.

Easily treated in the First World by antibiotics. Endemic still in much of the world including East Asia, North and South America.
 
Its the time-lag; Sub=Saharan Africa is projected to be four to five months behind Europe and North America.

Tomato tomato, I say more like 2000 years behind.

One big thing they could do is not only reverse the decision to only allow 1 cycle of IVF on the NHS but have 3 cycles available if a woman keeps her hand on her ha'penny through 5 years of college and Uni and then another 5 getting the job she studied for rather than banging out 5 kids to 5 different prisoners on a council estate.
 

Cold_Collation

LE
Book Reviewer
If the Western world, with it’s healthcare, media, sophisticated infrastructure and mostly responsible and compliant populations, is being crippled by Covid, does anyone really think that Africa, without any of these things (and with a suspected susceptibility to it) is escaping so miraculously?

I very much doubt it.
Quite. It almost doesn't bear thinking about.
 
If the Western world, with it’s healthcare, media, sophisticated infrastructure and mostly responsible and compliant populations, is being crippled by Covid, does anyone really think that Africa, without any of these things (and with a suspected susceptibility to it) is escaping so miraculously?

I very much doubt it.

I agree, something which I've thought of a lot especially through April. How come Africa isn't fucked, well, more fucked than usual?
 
If the Western world, with it’s healthcare, media, sophisticated infrastructure and mostly responsible and compliant populations, is being crippled by Covid, does anyone really think that Africa, without any of these things (and with a suspected susceptibility to it) is escaping so miraculously?

I very much doubt it.
Agreed. And we don't (as far as I know) yet know what genetic predispositions may exist in a given population that would amplify or suppress the lethality.

@History_Man mentioned sickle cell earlier in the thread, but David Reich argues that the genetic mutation that produces it appears to be linked to a relative immunity to malaria which has a far more lethal effect within a population.

I guess we're about to witness perhaps the largest 'natural experiment' known to mankind.
Or was that Milton Keynes...:scratch:
 
...
It does mean that old people will need to stay fitter and healthier for longer though... so enforced fizz for everyone under 80 I reckon. "Twice round my beautiful body.... go!"


How very socialist...


 

AlienFTM

MIA
Book Reviewer
I say more like 2000 years behind
Yeah but only in the last 70 years since we stopped showing them how to live in the 20th Century, let them run it themselves and give them money to buy food Kalashnikovs and revert to 16th Century orifices. (Again, Current Affairs.)
 

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