"Jaw dropping" crash in global birth rate.

I've seen plenty of fat Nigerians. I used to have the deep joy of greeting the daily Virgin flight (VS0652) from Lagos at Heathrow Terminal 3 as it arrived on stand. Put it this way, the few skinny Nigerians that there were were right down the back and, usually, were to found on the much cheaper Arik into Terminal 4.
‘S cultural, innit?!
 

chrisg46

LE
Book Reviewer
 
Is it really a drop in fertility, or is it more due to people in most countries making a conscious decision to have fewer children?

Whereas in some other areas children are still seen as a retirement plan, so the more you have, the better.
 

Mattb

LE
Is it really a drop in fertility, or is it more due to people in most countries making a conscious decision to have fewer children?
It's exactly that, as stated in the article... (not just fewer, but later too).
 
Is it really a drop in fertility, or is it more due to people in most countries making a conscious decision to have fewer children?

Whereas in some other areas children are still seen as a retirement plan, so the more you have, the better.
The African middle-classes are certainly sticking to 2-3 children per family, but the urban and rural poor are certainly not. A surviving child is your pension.
 
Given that Homo sapiens's propensity for overpopulation is arguably the biggest risk to the planet, I'm really not seeing a problem.
The problem is that it is essentially the birth rate that is dropping. The wealthier countries are going to be worst hit as an ageing population increases significantly and is not replaced by a young healthy (tax paying) set of replacements.
Less people on the planet = good
Mostly older people on the planet = bad.
 
Update:

Social distancing is here to stay for the time being

Potential very significant upswing this winter

Masks most useful indoors for short periods of time e.g. cinemas, shops, theatres, etc. but not offices i.e. no good for an 8-hour working day

Masks much less useful outdoors
 
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Is it really a drop in fertility, or is it more due to people in most countries making a conscious decision to have fewer children?

Whereas in some other areas children are still seen as a retirement plan, so the more you have, the better.
Interesting question.
Certainly, my son and his possible fiancee agree for now anyhow, not to replicate. She is a stunning gym whippet after losing a huge amount of blubber a few years back and wants to stay that wayfor personal health & fitness reasons.Selfish? Opinions differ.
They share the view that there are plenty of babies looking for adoption if they ever got broody. She's just qualified for a life career, and he landed a HQ goverment paid position, we are cracking on the years, and her parents live far off, so family unit "support" would be thin.
I can see their point.
 
Update:

Vast majority of imported cases came from France, Italy and Spain, not China

Working very hard if an effective vaccine is developed to make it available

Urgent need to recruit more CS with STEM degrees

NHS taking prospect of a second wave very, very seriously

Highly unlikely to get a vaccine that will completely stop COVID-19

Not this year, probably next year, probably an annual vaccine like the flu jab

Suspect antibody response confers some protection but appears to be lost after a few months - off-the-shelf tests are not very helpful
 
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Is it really a drop in fertility, or is it more due to people in most countries making a conscious decision to have fewer children?

Whereas in some other areas children are still seen as a retirement plan, so the more you have, the better.
Lot's more distrations in life, lower (adjusted) wages than say 40 years ago, expensive western housing costs, the social pressure for a career + a whole raft of other things.
Out of my social group of say 10 guys (most married or in long term relationships), only two of us are parents.
It seems modern western life is all about making the big bucks to buy crap. Just a shame that it's not until you are in your mid thirties that you realise it's all guff and you take on interests that don't cost the earth...generally!
And raising kids is HARD! Imagine you are 22 and someone told you that you are going to end your life as you know it for the next 16-18 years (actually you don't get it back). No wonder parenthood is not soemthing on anyones radar when they are young anymore (stand fast the benefits class).


TBH, we (as a society) need to address this pretty soon. It's a bit like that argument that a man will earn more than his wife over the course of his life becuase she will have to take many years out to raise kids (if they have them), without realsing her husband will be comitting much more of his wage to raising the family so it actually evens out in the long term.
 
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Update:

Social distancing is here to stay for the time being

Potential very significant upswing this winter

Masks most useful indoors for short periods of time e.g. cinemas, shops, theatres, etc. but not offices i.e. no good for an 8-hour working day

Masks much less useful outdoors
Not hearing much about the outbreak of Yersinia Pestis that killed a 15 yo in Nepal (I think) bearing in mind how quick that spread. methinks perhaps Governments might be exercised. Combination of that and C19........
 

Cold_Collation

LE
Book Reviewer
The problem is that it is essentially the birth rate that is dropping. The wealthier countries are going to be worst hit as an ageing population increases significantly and is not replaced by a young healthy (tax paying) set of replacements.
Less people on the planet = good
Mostly older people on the planet = bad.
Some interesting conversations on this in the strategy and technology areas that I write in, though.

Want to make lots of money? Don't become an accountant in a few years' time. Nor many of the general medical specialties, either. Artificial intelligence is going to hit those areas and other areas hard. In fact, a lot of what happened to blue collar jobs a couple of decades ago is going to happen to white collar jobs soon.

As to blue collar... companies such as ABB Robotics are being very careful in presentations to say that their products complement and don't replace. The emphasis is on increasing the productivity of the individual, and so allowing high(er)-wage economies to compete either with low-wage economies or to re-shore jobs that went to China and elsewhere.

The reality, of course, is that 'increased productivity' can very quickly get rid of that human in the loop.

That puts a lot of the governments and policy-makers who advocate mass inward migration as a means of addressing the skills shortage under pressure*.

Want to build a house? Pre-fab in a factory and deliver to site. Quality goes up, time to build, and cost, down. Think Huf Haus on a mass scale.

Want a taxi? Who says it needs to have a driver? (Soon, it won't.)

So why 'import' lots of people if you don't need to?




*Acutally, call it what it is in this country: Labour trying to get itself a captive vote among the newcomers.
 
Is it really a drop in fertility, or is it more due to people in most countries making a conscious decision to have fewer children?
It's a combination of social factors which make having children increasingly more difficult and expensive for parents. The days of a couple getting married, buying a house on one income, the husband having a good paying job for life while the wife stayed home and had kids are long gone.

Today, the rising cost of housing eats up more income. Women not only want to work more, they need to work in order to help pay for the increasingly expensive house, and to provide a fall-back option for the almost inevitable divorce or separation. Children will need an expensive education, further increasing demands on limited money. Parents put off having children because they need to save up enough money to make starting a family practical. By the time they do have one or two children, it's so late in life that having three or four is seen as not practical or desirable in their then circumstances, Besides which the wife can't take time off work and the couple also make the mortgage payment. The husband's job is looking more precarious every year as the new management are big on outsourcing and he could be next on the chopping block. The marriage is also starting to fall apart, so having another kid right now isn't part of bedtime conversation. Etc.

Lots of old people will cause an economic crisis in the worst hit countries. There will be fewer people to pay the pensions. Property prices will collapse both due to declining demand and property no longer being seen as a stable investment. Countries with older populations may see many of their younger people emigrate to other developed countries with younger populations in order to escape the increasing taxation required to support pensions.

It comes down to economics. If you make it increasingly expensive for people to have children, they will have fewer children. If you make it less costly to have children, they will have more children. Right now the effective "tax" on having children is high and has been getting higher. It's no different from how heavy taxes on cigarettes are used to discourage smoking. The "tax" on having children may be unintended, but economics doesn't care about your intentions.

The difference between this sort of long term population decline and a plague is that once a plague is over the population starts growing again. With a general lack of children there is no obvious end to it. It just goes on until there are fundamental changes in society to reverse the factors which cause it.

There is also the issue that this sort of trend will introduce fundamental changes in the global balance of power, including military, economic, and cultural. The societies that successfully address the population collapse issue will be the ones that go on to dominate the global scene.

I see there being three issues that have to be dealt with, the cost of housing, the cost of education, and the high rate of marriage failure. Being able to deal with these factors is going to matter far more to the long term future of your society than whose statue gets toppled or which high speed rail line gets built or whether the prime minister made a really good speech in support of human rights in Hong Kong.

You could of course pin your hopes on say society producing human clones in test tubes to produce a manufactured population paid for through taxes, but we don't have even the beginnings of an idea of how to do that, let alone gotten through the inevitable opposition to the concept. The same goes for coming up with some sort of immortality treatment so we don't get old and die in the first place.

We do however know how to change the incentives which currently are against having children to favour having children the natural way, but it's not an issue that has become part of the political landscape yet.
 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
If what I heard yesterday about COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa is correct, then instant sunshine will not be needed.
Pray tell.

So far daily deaths from Covid on the dark continent are usually less than 300.
 

Mattb

LE
The problem is that it is essentially the birth rate that is dropping. The wealthier countries are going to be worst hit as an ageing population increases significantly and is not replaced by a young healthy (tax paying) set of replacements.
Less people on the planet = good
Mostly older people on the planet = bad.
Tricky to reconcile the two, unless you consider Logan's Run an instructional video.
 

Daxx

MIA
Book Reviewer
I'm sure that the rest of the earth's ecosystems and inhabitants are having a party at the news.
 
Many people have been saying for a long time that the world is overpopulated. If Ma Nature has decided to do something about it that can only be a good thing. World population in 1800 was c1 billion people. By 2100 it's forecast to be around 11 billion. That's a huge increase in such a short time. It's almost as if the human race is acting like a virus.

Natural resources are being used up at an ever increasing rate. Billions more people on the planet wanting somewhere to live and something to eat and drink and the infrastructure required to support that is not sustainable. Everywhere will need more housing, roads, transport (cars, buses, trains, planes & lorries), schools, hospitals, dentists, GP surgeries, supermarkets, factories, power stations, water treatment works, et al. Think of all the land that needs to be concreted over. Then there's the food production required. We'll need more land used for agriculture but that will be getting built upon. Fossil fuels are a big no-no now so we need more windmills to produce electrickery. More competition for available land. More people means more tech required. Everyone wants the latest smart phone, smart TV, smart toaster. They are all made from natural resources that need to be dug up out of the ground and transported around the world.

There will be more and more mass migration and illegal migrants trying to escape from third-world shit holes. We (all developed countries) can barely stop it now so what hope will we have when the numbers become unmanageable? Turning them around won't be a solution so they will have to be housed, putting even greater strain on resources. Competition for land is only ever going to push up property prices. Increased automation is going to remove more people from the workforce, particularly the low skilled. Low skilled jobs are not going to pay a great deal and there will be far more low skilled people chasing them thus depressing wages.

Low incomes are not going to pay for high priced property so where will people be housed? High density, low quality social housing funded by the tax payer. A throw back to the 60s and 70s. We all know how that turned out.

The human population needs to be controlled. Perhaps this Covid pandemic and a few more like it will do the trick.
 

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