Israel will probably go to war against Iran before November

#1
Michael Portillo said when asked on the BBC's This Week programme "that Israel is fast approaching the point that if it does nothing about Iran developing nuclear weapons then it will be too late" so expect it to kick off sometime this year.

His reasoning was the US has a presidential election coming up and that both sides will have to support Israel to get the big American Jewish vote, so the US will be easier to drag into a conflict before than after the election.

Looks like things could get rather messy.
 

Bouillabaisse

LE
Book Reviewer
#2
If Portillo was so prescient that he could predict this sort of stuff he'd be prime minister and not a has-been sitting on a tv sofa.
 
#4
I would not under estimate portillo - hes more a seasoned politician that some of the others. I believe he keeps his ear firmly to the ground moreso that others, hence why the bbc have him on the politics show. The bbc as much as i detest them with a non partial view, they know thier shit when it comes to finding int......
 
#5
Quite how Israel could "Go to war" with Iran is an interesting concept. No doubt the IDF could bomb assorted facilities but how would that achieve the aim - which would be, I imagine, to assure security for the Zionist state. My guess is that it would actually achieve the opposite and refocus Arab attention on Israe/Palestine. Perhaps they would be better off attempting to develop better relationships with the assorted new Arab governments rather than concreting in place the existing divides ?


The bottom line is that the Zionists will never achieve peace through force of arms - fantasys of glazing over the mid-east apart. The only answer is dialogue and compromise. Sadly the latter word does not appear to translate into Hebrew.
 
#6
Quite how Israel could "Go to war" with Iran is an interesting concept. No doubt the IDF could bomb assorted facilities but how would that achieve the aim - which would be, I imagine, to assure security for the Zionist state. My guess is that it would actually achieve the opposite and refocus Arab attention on Israe/Palestine. Perhaps they would be better off attempting to develop better relationships with the assorted new Arab governments rather than concreting in place the existing divides ?


The bottom line is that the Zionists will never achieve peace through force of arms - fantasys of glazing over the mid-east apart. The only answer is dialogue and compromise. Sadly the latter word does not appear to translate into Hebrew.
This is why they want to drag the Merkins in with them.

Areas to avoid this year are Middle East and India
 
#7
Michael Portillo said when asked on the BBC's This Week programme "that Israel is fast approaching the point that if it does nothing about Iran developing nuclear weapons then it will be too late" so expect it to kick off sometime this year.
Has he had his head in the sand? Has he not noticed the assassination of Irans nuclear scientists and the destruction of important labs?
 
#8
Has he had his head in the sand? Has he not noticed the assassination of Irans nuclear scientists and the destruction of important labs?
That was only a temp setback for the Iranians, whatever Israel has done so far has only delayed things, the nuclear facilities would have to be totally wrecked, that's why Iran has gone underground.
 
#9
Quite how Israel could "Go to war" with Iran is an interesting concept. No doubt the IDF could bomb assorted facilities but how would that achieve the aim - which would be, I imagine, to assure security for the Zionist state. My guess is that it would actually achieve the opposite and refocus Arab attention on Israe/Palestine. Perhaps they would be better off attempting to develop better relationships with the assorted new Arab governments rather than concreting in place the existing divides ?


The bottom line is that the Zionists will never achieve peace through force of arms - fantasys of glazing over the mid-east apart. The only answer is dialogue and compromise. Sadly the latter word does not appear to translate into Hebrew.
I have never heard it put better Saladin!

I would have thought the current Irsraeli govt has enough on its plate with domestic spats, the general strike and the settlers once again raising their ugly heads, not to mention the international demention of the Arab Spring! But true to form, the powers that be in that country act like punch drunk boxers aiming for yet another fight, and no doubt are ready to squeal for help from their American sponsors should the poop hit the fan.

As for Michael Portillo, perhaps he could apply for a new job in tarot card reading. At least with so many simpletons around these days he would be assured of a regular income :)
 
#10
There is probably no doubt that the poop will hit the fan, because if Iran gets nuclear weapons then they are mad enough to use them
 
#11
Quite how Israel could "Go to war" with Iran is an interesting concept. No doubt the IDF could bomb assorted facilities but how would that achieve the aim - which would be, I imagine, to assure security for the Zionist state. My guess is that it would actually achieve the opposite and refocus Arab attention on Israe/Palestine. Perhaps they would be better off attempting to develop better relationships with the assorted new Arab governments rather than concreting in place the existing divides ?


The bottom line is that the Zionists will never achieve peace through force of arms - fantasys of glazing over the mid-east apart. The only answer is dialogue and compromise. Sadly the latter word does not appear to translate into Hebrew.
Your continued use of the word Zionists when talking about Israel nails your colours to the mast, not to mention your username.

Thanks for the balanced retort. If you think that Israel can afford to wait and let Iran develop the Bomb, you're crazy. They won't let it get that far, and they'll be having major support from othe Gulf states in getting it done. Not a matter of if...
 
#12
The only existential threat Israel faces is mass emigration. No-one in a position of power in Iran is stupid enough to do anything that will provoke Israel to use their nukes in retaliation. No-one. They know that the IDF will pull the trigger.

What will start mass emigration is the fear that something will start, Israel being a small country after all. It's a double whammy of course, any flight of people and capital will be accompanied by the economic hit as reservists are called up. Keep that going for long enough and the economy sinks, more people leave and so on.

Hence the current schizophrenic approach from the Israelis. They want to appear tough enough to make everyone at home feel safe, but not tough enough to start something and achieve the opposite effect. Hence their apparent desire to have the US pull them back muttering "leave it, they're not worth it".

For me a more important issue is how this destabilises the rest of the region. Plus if Iranian oil stops being shipped to the Chinese I foresee that they will take an interest too.

Trouble is, even if the regime in Iran changes - and here's hoping - whoever takes over will still want a viable civil nuclear programme and some level of nuclear capability. Israel has it, Saudi Arabia can get it from Pakistan fairly quickly (allegedly) and so on. In their shoes so would I.
 
#15
His reasoning was the US has a presidential election coming up and that both sides will have to support Israel to get the big American Jewish vote, so the US will be easier to drag into a conflict before than after the election.
The Jews make up less than 2% of the American population and some of those don't even support Israel. His reasoning doesnt really make sense.
 
#16
The only existential threat Israel faces is mass emigration..
Never likely to happen, the reason that most emigrate over the years is for (long term) economic reasons. Security has always been a concern in Israel it's nothing new.

What will start mass emigration is the fear that something will start, Israel being a small country after all. It's a double whammy of course, any flight of people and capital will be accompanied by the economic hit as reservists are called up. Keep that going for long enough and the economy sinks, more people leave and so on.
Where do you think this apparent mass flight of millions of Israelis will go to? Any war with Iran won't be ground lead which is where the majority of reservists serve (in land forces).
A complete call up will not happen.

They want to appear tough enough to make everyone at home feel safe.
Meanwhile life just goes on here without Iran as the centre piece of everyday conversation. Iran is an issue that comes and goes in the press, peoplehave it at the back of their minds.
If they were already "bricking it" the "mass exodus" would have started by now (November is not a long way off if you believe the rumours), not alot of time to reorganise ones life in another country
 
#17
Never likely to happen, the reason that most emigrate over the years is for (long term) economic reasons. Security has always been a concern in Israel it's nothing new.



Where do you think this apparent mass flight of millions of Israelis will go to? Any war with Iran won't be ground lead which is where the majority of reservists serve (in land forces).
A complete call up will not happen.


Meanwhile life just goes on here without Iran as the centre piece of everyday conversation. Iran is an issue that comes and goes in the press, peoplehave it at the back of their minds.
If they were already "bricking it" the "mass exodus" would have started by now (November is not a long way off if you believe the rumours), not alot of time to reorganise ones life in another country
You know, I agree with you completely. The view many have over here is that both Israel and Iran are frothing nutters just itching to settle matters in some atomic fashion, and I think it's complete honk. Like I said, the only possible threat I see for Israel is emigration. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I get the feeling that dual passports are a touch more common than perhaps they used to be. I do see the Israeli government working hard to create the perception at home that things are stable; and that will not be the case should Iran be pushed hard enough to kick things off. Hence my assessment of things at the moment as a balancing act.

I would point out though that an Iranian max effort would no doubt include some judicious poking of certain groups in and near Israel to try and generate a COIN tarpit for ground troops and some helpful CNN footage.
 
#18
The Jews make up less than 2% of the American population and some of those don't even support Israel. His reasoning doesnt really make sense.
Not sticking up for p-pod but 90% of American Jews do actually vote and with a turnout of 63% of all the electorate at Obama's election,that is still a sizeable vote...
 
#19
You know, I agree with you completely..
Are you sure? I'm not convinved.

The view many have over here is that both Israel and Iran are frothing nutters.
A view portrayed by media outlets, having said that I never get that impression from Sky News!

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I get the feeling that dual passports are a touch more common than perhaps they used to be.
No more then there used to be or probably no more than in any other country.

I do see the Israeli government working hard to create the perception at home that things are stable.
The situation is basically stable in Israel, the govt. does not need to create any perception and I wasn't aware the govt here was creating a perception above and beyond what any elected govt does.
 
#20
Your continued use of the word Zionists when talking about Israel nails your colours to the mast, not to mention your username.

Thanks for the balanced retort. If you think that Israel can afford to wait and let Iran develop the Bomb, you're crazy. They won't let it get that far, and they'll be having major support from othe Gulf states in getting it done. Not a matter of if...

You do realise Zionism is originally a technical term to describe anyone who believes that Israel should be a Jewish homeland? I agree that the Arab and Persian media use it in a pejorative sense in their propaganda pieces, however Saladin's use of the term here is accurate: Zionism = Eretz Yisrael = West Bank settlements = no negotiation = Netanyahu.
 

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