Israel will probably go to war against Iran before November

Discussion in 'Syria, Mali, Libya, Middle East & North Africa' started by pandaplodder, Feb 10, 2012.

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  1. Michael Portillo said when asked on the BBC's This Week programme "that Israel is fast approaching the point that if it does nothing about Iran developing nuclear weapons then it will be too late" so expect it to kick off sometime this year.

    His reasoning was the US has a presidential election coming up and that both sides will have to support Israel to get the big American Jewish vote, so the US will be easier to drag into a conflict before than after the election.

    Looks like things could get rather messy.
     
  2. Bouillabaisse

    Bouillabaisse LE Book Reviewer

    If Portillo was so prescient that he could predict this sort of stuff he'd be prime minister and not a has-been sitting on a tv sofa.
     
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  3. He was stating the obvious though
     
  4. I would not under estimate portillo - hes more a seasoned politician that some of the others. I believe he keeps his ear firmly to the ground moreso that others, hence why the bbc have him on the politics show. The bbc as much as i detest them with a non partial view, they know thier shit when it comes to finding int......
     
  5. Quite how Israel could "Go to war" with Iran is an interesting concept. No doubt the IDF could bomb assorted facilities but how would that achieve the aim - which would be, I imagine, to assure security for the Zionist state. My guess is that it would actually achieve the opposite and refocus Arab attention on Israe/Palestine. Perhaps they would be better off attempting to develop better relationships with the assorted new Arab governments rather than concreting in place the existing divides ?


    The bottom line is that the Zionists will never achieve peace through force of arms - fantasys of glazing over the mid-east apart. The only answer is dialogue and compromise. Sadly the latter word does not appear to translate into Hebrew.
     
  6. This is why they want to drag the Merkins in with them.

    Areas to avoid this year are Middle East and India
     
  7. Has he had his head in the sand? Has he not noticed the assassination of Irans nuclear scientists and the destruction of important labs?
     
  8. That was only a temp setback for the Iranians, whatever Israel has done so far has only delayed things, the nuclear facilities would have to be totally wrecked, that's why Iran has gone underground.
     
  9. I have never heard it put better Saladin!

    I would have thought the current Irsraeli govt has enough on its plate with domestic spats, the general strike and the settlers once again raising their ugly heads, not to mention the international demention of the Arab Spring! But true to form, the powers that be in that country act like punch drunk boxers aiming for yet another fight, and no doubt are ready to squeal for help from their American sponsors should the poop hit the fan.

    As for Michael Portillo, perhaps he could apply for a new job in tarot card reading. At least with so many simpletons around these days he would be assured of a regular income :)
     
  10. There is probably no doubt that the poop will hit the fan, because if Iran gets nuclear weapons then they are mad enough to use them
     
  11. Your continued use of the word Zionists when talking about Israel nails your colours to the mast, not to mention your username.

    Thanks for the balanced retort. If you think that Israel can afford to wait and let Iran develop the Bomb, you're crazy. They won't let it get that far, and they'll be having major support from othe Gulf states in getting it done. Not a matter of if...
     
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  12. The only existential threat Israel faces is mass emigration. No-one in a position of power in Iran is stupid enough to do anything that will provoke Israel to use their nukes in retaliation. No-one. They know that the IDF will pull the trigger.

    What will start mass emigration is the fear that something will start, Israel being a small country after all. It's a double whammy of course, any flight of people and capital will be accompanied by the economic hit as reservists are called up. Keep that going for long enough and the economy sinks, more people leave and so on.

    Hence the current schizophrenic approach from the Israelis. They want to appear tough enough to make everyone at home feel safe, but not tough enough to start something and achieve the opposite effect. Hence their apparent desire to have the US pull them back muttering "leave it, they're not worth it".

    For me a more important issue is how this destabilises the rest of the region. Plus if Iranian oil stops being shipped to the Chinese I foresee that they will take an interest too.

    Trouble is, even if the regime in Iran changes - and here's hoping - whoever takes over will still want a viable civil nuclear programme and some level of nuclear capability. Israel has it, Saudi Arabia can get it from Pakistan fairly quickly (allegedly) and so on. In their shoes so would I.
     
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  13. Compromise - פְּשָׁרָה
     
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  14. The Jews make up less than 2% of the American population and some of those don't even support Israel. His reasoning doesnt really make sense.