Israel-Lebanon Front

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by tomahawk6, Nov 21, 2006.

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  1. Hizbollah on Thursday is calling for demonstrations against the Lebanese government. An attempted coup by Hizbollah may spark civil war.

    The shaky Olmert government plans to move Defense Minister Peretz to a social welfare portfolio and replace him with Ehud Barak. Peretz' inability to deal with the rockets fired from Gaza is forcing the change which could spark a Labor walkout which would see the Olmert government fall.
  2. Well, Hezbollah is a long way off from being popular enough to overthrow the government (though might have support to try and get a few more cabinet seats.) Their cause has been vastly helped by Israel, though, as the Lebanese govn is very weak after having been shown to be powerless to stop the Israelli bombing (diplomatically), and unwilling to fight Israel.
  3. A report after the Channel 4 News last Friday carried out by Kate Seele has both Druz and Christians readying themselves for a new civil war with Hezbollah the major protagonist.
  4. They resigned their cabinet seats whilst trying to claim more. I believe the government is hardening against them
  5. Its looking very likely - Israel will be stiring it up of course, but the Druze and Christians will not stand for a Hezbollah dominated Lebanon.
  6. Not just any politician,

    It's Pierre Gemayel. Can't help wondering if we're going to get Hizbollah condemnation/denial of involvement.
  7. I don't think it's Syria or Hezbollah - they will condemn and in Syria's case already have.... but there is something not right about this 8O
  8. If bringing security and political stability to its northern border was one of Israel's (unspoken) summer war aims, we can put that down as another significant failure then... :x

    And, with a more robust French/Spanish/Italian/German UNIFIL across the border, another major assault by the IDF is precluded. :x

    What's the betting that the current 12-month mandate for UNIFIL (see UNSCR 1701) is watered down next summer so that a only a weak UNIFIL remains - thus reopening the door for another IDF assault? :evil:
  9. Oh there is something not quite right about this.
    Pierre Gemayel, powerful enough to cause a drama but not so powerful enough to plunge the country into war.
  10. I share your concerns CR, rammed and a single gunman?

    Very odd.
  11. In a strange way might this not actually strengthen the Siniora/14th Feb government?
    Just thinking out loud, here of course 8O
  12. Criminal rather than political?

    Hit squad from a (southern) neighbouring state trying to destabilise the fragile status quo?
  13. If Hizbollah move swiftly to condemn AND play the patriotic card?

    "At times like this we must all put our differences aside , for the greater good of Lebanon"

    I find it hard to believe that they would countenance whacking the scion of the 'Lebanese Kennedys'
  14. Don't Syrians tend to use explosives rather than small arms for assassinations? Hariri, Samir Kassar, Gabriel Tueni etc

    Could be a rogue element within the intelligence services? Tends to happen when things are breaking down.

    Maybe they have contracted out to a local group for deniability - found someone keen to settle old scores...