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Israel-Lebanon Front

#1
Hizbollah on Thursday is calling for demonstrations against the Lebanese government. An attempted coup by Hizbollah may spark civil war.

The shaky Olmert government plans to move Defense Minister Peretz to a social welfare portfolio and replace him with Ehud Barak. Peretz' inability to deal with the rockets fired from Gaza is forcing the change which could spark a Labor walkout which would see the Olmert government fall.
 
#2
Well, Hezbollah is a long way off from being popular enough to overthrow the government (though might have support to try and get a few more cabinet seats.) Their cause has been vastly helped by Israel, though, as the Lebanese govn is very weak after having been shown to be powerless to stop the Israelli bombing (diplomatically), and unwilling to fight Israel.
 
#3
A report after the Channel 4 News last Friday carried out by Kate Seele has both Druz and Christians readying themselves for a new civil war with Hezbollah the major protagonist.
 
#4
Stooge said:
Well, Hezbollah is a long way off from being popular enough to overthrow the government (though might have support to try and get a few more cabinet seats.) Their cause has been vastly helped by Israel, though, as the Lebanese govn is very weak after having been shown to be powerless to stop the Israelli bombing (diplomatically), and unwilling to fight Israel.
They resigned their cabinet seats whilst trying to claim more. I believe the government is hardening against them
 
#6
Sven said:
A report after the Channel 4 News last Friday carried out by Kate Seele has both Druz and Christians readying themselves for a new civil war with Hezbollah the major protagonist.
Its looking very likely - Israel will be stiring it up of course, but the Druze and Christians will not stand for a Hezbollah dominated Lebanon.
 
#7
Not just any politician,

It's Pierre Gemayel. Can't help wondering if we're going to get Hizbollah condemnation/denial of involvement.
 
#8
PartTimePongo said:
Not just any politician,

It's Pierre Gemayel. Can't help wondering if we're going to get Hizbollah condemnation/denial of involvement.
I don't think it's Syria or Hezbollah - they will condemn and in Syria's case already have.... but there is something not right about this 8O
 
#9
PartTimePongo said:
Not just any politician,

It's Pierre Gemayel. Can't help wondering if we're going to get Hizbollah condemnation/denial of involvement.
If bringing security and political stability to its northern border was one of Israel's (unspoken) summer war aims, we can put that down as another significant failure then... :x

And, with a more robust French/Spanish/Italian/German UNIFIL across the border, another major assault by the IDF is precluded. :x

What's the betting that the current 12-month mandate for UNIFIL (see UNSCR 1701) is watered down next summer so that a only a weak UNIFIL remains - thus reopening the door for another IDF assault? :evil:
 
#10
Oh there is something not quite right about this.
Pierre Gemayel, powerful enough to cause a drama but not so powerful enough to plunge the country into war.
 
#11
I share your concerns CR, rammed and a single gunman?

Very odd.
 
#13
PartTimePongo said:
I share your concerns CR, rammed and a single gunman?

Very odd.
Criminal rather than political?

Hit squad from a (southern) neighbouring state trying to destabilise the fragile status quo?
 
#14
If Hizbollah move swiftly to condemn AND play the patriotic card?

"At times like this we must all put our differences aside , for the greater good of Lebanon"

I find it hard to believe that they would countenance whacking the scion of the 'Lebanese Kennedys'
 
#15
Don't Syrians tend to use explosives rather than small arms for assassinations? Hariri, Samir Kassar, Gabriel Tueni etc

Could be a rogue element within the intelligence services? Tends to happen when things are breaking down.

Maybe they have contracted out to a local group for deniability - found someone keen to settle old scores...
 
#18
Well, old man Gemayel could possibly be compared to Joe Kennedy? ;)

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=77064

T6 , I disagree. If it was a Hezbollah hit, I think there'd be a lot more shooters and a lot of brass expended..

Now I'll wait for Syria to get on the blower and ascertain if HezB were behind this. If they weren't, or convince Damascus they weren't, stand by for a lot of screaming at the UN and elsewhere.
 
#19
Hezbollah, have denied involvement and offered condolences.
Can't see any benefit for them stirring up internal trouble in Lebanon causing a breach with Syria right now.
 
#20
SLRboy said:
Hezbollah, have denied involvement and offered condolences.
Can't see any benefit for them stirring up internal trouble in Lebanon causing a breach with Syria right now.

You obviously didn't watch Unreported World last Friday. The Lebanon is a tinderbox, Hezbollah carrying out various acts of terrorism and Druz and Christians preparing for war
 

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