Is the "Berlin Wall" of the Arab World About to Fall ?

A

ALVIN

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#1
With the current ongoing revolution taking place in Egypt and the chain reaction domino effect this is having regarding Tunisia and Yemen, it looks invertible that major changes are about to happen in the Arab world.

What do you think the end game will be ? and what effect will this have on the rest of the world ?
 
#2
Not entirely sure yet. But the ripple effect of this is certainly causing more than a few Alpha men to shit their pants. King Abdullah of Jordan is fast reading up on constitutions and democratic rights. The one country I wouldn't want to be in when the ripples stop is Israel, surrounded by a new breed of democratic countries...ok so far until you surmise the leading political party will probably be your worst enemy.
 
#3
There will be a war, Mubarak was a twat, but he was a peaceful twat, he followed Sadat's line on peace with Israel. Tunisia was also, from an outside perspective, a peaceful island in an Arab sea of troubles.

The dominoes are still falling and they won't fall where we want them!
 
#4
Sage words indeed. With the exception of the House of Saud (maybe), I can see the remaining Arab monarchies falling one by one: Morocco, Jordan etc. Algeria and Yemen are already basket cases full of rabid Jihadis, and I can see others following suit. Lebanon is now run by Hezbollah - and that could return to it's post-60s default setting of chaos quite easily. Egypt has a monster population - a significantly large proportion of which are young, disaffected men, a high percentage of which are wanting to see a sharia state and don't seem too bothered about tourism and its effect on the economy. I'm sensing 1979 Iran all over again, but this time with more serious ramifications for the west - including Russia.
 
#6
The biggest problem will come if Turkey becomes a hardline Islamic state, not sure if it would happen but that could cause all sorts of shit with Greece and NATO.

With my best tinfoil hat on, there does seem something a bit fishy about this and I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that this has been orchestrated by forces outside these countries as a way of disrupting the influence of the US in the region.
 
#7
There is a theory, to which I suscribe, that every developed nation gets exactly the government which it deserves.

That's why we are ruled by incompetent tabloid format airhead criminals in hand made suits who can't think from a to b.
The Arabs, all Arabs, are going to get the governments that they deserve. Now how good do you think they will be?
 
#8
The biggest problem will come if Turkey becomes a hardline Islamic state, not sure if it would happen but that could cause all sorts of shit with Greece and NATO.

With my best tinfoil hat on, there does seem something a bit fishy about this and I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that this has been orchestrated by forces outside these countries as a way of disrupting the influence of the US in the region.
i.e. China and / or Saudi Arabia
 
#9
to be fair the US propping up tyrannys was never going to last forever.
the idea that arabs can't handle democracy and rule of law is bullshit its not like they get much of a chance to try.
 
#10
i.e. China and / or Saudi Arabia
I was thinking of something currently in the news for nukes, would suit their purpose to have the world distracted by this while they quietly carry out their nuclear program, plus gives them a buffer zone should anything happen from a military position.
 
#11
I was thinking of something currently in the news for nukes, would suit their purpose to have the world distracted by this while they quietly carry out their nuclear program, plus gives them a buffer zone should anything happen from a military position.
This is all about a new world order. I tend to think pan Arab and pan Asia. I therefore consider the candidates for the Caliphacy and for the Ming throne. Some one is bankrolling nuclear programs in what are possibly puppet states, (and everyone has a price after all). Can anyone else see the strings?
 
#12
What do you think the end game will be ? and what effect will this have on the rest of the world ?
Difficult to say what the end game will be, but there is one thing for certain. The M.E. is brimmed with west hating potential fanatics. If the ripple passes through the whole of the M.E. and Arabia, then we can be sure it will be everything but quiet for the century or so.

The big question may be, how patient will we remain and for how long?
 
#13
Difficult to say what the end game will be, but there is one thing for certain. The M.E. is brimmed with west hating potential fanatics. If the ripple passes through the whole of the M.E. and Arabia, then we can be sure it will be everything but quiet for the century or so.

The big question may be, how patient will we remain and for how long?
How patient? Well I think the patience will last exactly as long as the oil keeps flowing. First one to even threaten to turn off the tap will have a reality check in very short order.
 
#14
An open education system is key. It will take time and we may not like what they become - we may even become jealous - but it will give more stability in the long run I believe.

That of course is a utopian I have to admit but if all nations were so...

(I feel a song coming on)
 
#15
How patient? Well I think the patience will last exactly as long as the oil keeps flowing. First one to even threaten to turn off the tap will have a reality check in very short order.
And just what would you suggest the "reality check " be.

1. USA stop giving them weapons, Russa and China step in.

2. USA threatens to drop some glass surface makers on them - go ahead and you,ll destroy the oil producing infrastructure ( Or we will if you destroy our cities:) )

2.a. USA drops some glass makers - see point 2.

3. USA decides to go in by Air and smart bomb - see point 2.

4. USA and CO-Elition decide to try ground war - See Iraq, Afgan and the rest. Yes they wil wn the battle but lose the War.

IMHO they have the West over a barrel -of oil or several million of them.
 
#17
Should we even be concerned? Can we just let them get on with it,and not get involved?
The trouble is that the deck is stacked: Saudi Arabia and Iran have for years been investing billions in their brands of radical Islam, thus the default organised and prepared political parties likely to form replacement governments for these countries are all Islamicist. As no-one is providing counterpoint investment in either secular/moderate political parties, most countries with majority muslim populations are likely to end up as radical Islamic states. The current pain in the arrse of Islamic terrorism in the West is thus also likely to grow exponentially, together with the chance of a major international clash - perhaps Israel deciding to mallet any budding nuclear powers, or Russia responding to another atrocity emanating from the North Caucasus...
 
#18
Should we even be concerned? Can we just let them get on with it,and not get involved?
I think yes, we can let them get on with it. All we need to do is protect our investments. Let the power struggle work itself out... while they are busy killing each other, we'll not be their focus. Worst case scenario is our cousins over the pond... poking their nose in because of their delusional self belief in their own wisdom and understanding of the M.E.
 
#19
An open education system is key. It will take time and we may not like what they become - we may even become jealous - but it will give more stability in the long run I believe.

That of course is a utopian I have to admit but if all nations were so...

(I feel a song coming on)
A very astute observation. The amount of schools and 'real' education systems now emergign in the middle east, particularly Saudi, teh Emerates etc. is astounding. A few years back they finally twigged that letting a nations youth become almost soley educated by religious schools staffed by loons was possibly not the best idea when trying to produce an educated, free thinking populance which could then progress their respective countries economies and industries further. Education is a BIG thing in the ME at the moment. They just have to stop over populating, which is another benefit of the greater availability of education.
 
#20
What will be interesting is what happens in Syria, a very authoritarian 'Family concern' after their planned 'Day of Rage' on Friday.
“Day of Rage” Planned for Syria; Protests sceduled for Feb 4-5
"President Bashar Assad stated in an interview that his nation is “immune from the kind of unrest roiling Tunisia and Egypt.” The event, as considered by Assad is signaling a “new era” in the Middle East, but that Syria was insulated from the upheaval due to the government being “aware of the people’s needs.” The socialist past of Syria has gradually led in favor of a free market system. Assad also stated that he understood his people’s needs and has “united them in common cause against Israel.”


We shall see...
 

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