Is it time for war or peace in the Middle East?

Opinion peace from Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar that makes some interesting points..

“Approach each new problem not with a view of finding what you hope will be there, but to get the truth, the realities that must be grappled with. You may not like what you find. In that case you are entitled to try to change it. But do not deceive yourself as to what you do find to be the facts of the situation.” Bernard M. Baruch (1870 - 1965)

I believe that in every war, truth is the first casualty; and as such is usually reported long after the war is finished, and even then only as a foot note. Churchill once said that “men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.” Although others and I have repeatedly written about the reasons behind the Iraq invasion, people tend to forget. And people who forget tend to repeat the same mistake over and over again. The invasion of Iraq was not because of WMDs. It was about oil and Israel. Today the US is on the verge of starting another war again, this time with Iran, for exactly the same reasons.

But is it necessary? Can US have access to oil without dominating the region? Can Israel accept the fact that others also feel insecure and need guarantees for their security
I guess that unlikely the situation in the ME would change in the near future.

One side is unable another doesn't wish.
From well into the paper

Saudi Arabia and the “moderate” Arab states have very few cards to play with. They can support US (as usual) and risk a major upheaval in their region and countries, or they can support Iran and risk the wreath of US and its support for their governments. They have so far tried unsuccessfully to play the American card without any results. However, now they have finally got an Ace to play with, and that is Iran. They can use the Iranian card to force the US to pressure Israel into making the necessary concessions. They can demand that should their latest peace initiative be ignored by Israel, they would support Iran. This seems plausible, since after King Abdullah’s discussion with Iran’s Ahmadinejad, both countries stated that they would try to stop the sectarian rift within the Muslim world, and more importantly, Iran quietly backed the King’s proposed peace plan. At the same time the Lebanese crisis seems to have quieted down and a Palestinian unity government has been created. All these indicate that Saudis and Iranians are trying to reduce tension and concentrate on getting the Palestinian peace plan started. However the tension over Iraq remains.

Should the Saudi peace plan be rejected, the Arab trio, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan will lose any credibility that they have left in the region and with their own populations. They will then have no choice but to take a very hard stance against the US and Israel or risk losing power.

A v interesting and worrying point of view. Whilst there are a few problems with it (the survival of the Palestinian Unity Gov for one) it portrays well the dangers to the US/UK position in Middle East intervention that may exist in the not so distant future.

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