Iraq war: the greatest intelligence failure in living memory

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by vvaannmmaann, Mar 18, 2013.

Welcome to the Army Rumour Service, ARRSE

The UK's largest and busiest UNofficial military website.

The heart of the site is the forum area, including:

  1. I disagree, the intelligence was enormously successful. It achieved exactly what it was created to.
    • Like Like x 3
  2. The article relies rather heavily on hindsight for its 'intelligence failure' argument.

    Untested Humint sources are notoriously unreliable (especially when financial reward and families are involved), so it should hardly come as a surprise that people did not rely on it to make their main assessments. If the sources made statements that went against the general assessment (however wrong) they were hardly going to independently sway opinion. Humint practitioners harp-on about how brilliant they are but alot of their product is guff and bullshit.

    The fact that on this occasion they turned out to be stating the truth is a little embarrassing but the agencies involved should not be ridiculed for it. The report also does not state what other subjects were discussed, such as what the sources' assessment of Saddam mental condition was etc. IF other pieces of information were wrong or doubted then that will further damage the reputation of the source.

    They were a big fat E6 from the beginning.
    • Like Like x 1
  3. It would be F6....
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Yep, most likely!
  5. The specifics of WMD threat assessments in Iraq are actually fairly irrelevant. That acronym is a weaselly way of muddying the waters between battle fileld chemical weapons and nukes, like the misinformation campaign linking Saddam to 9-11 it served its purpose. The main intelligence failure was that the easily available social data on the scope of Iranian influence and what shape a Shia dominated Iraq was likely to take was basically ignored.
    • Like Like x 1
  6. Since when did we start confusing 'intelligence' with '****ing lies'?
    • Like Like x 6
  7. Now now, you make it sound like Alistair Campbell was instructing the JIC to re-write their intelligence assessment.

    Oh wait...
    • Like Like x 1
  8. dead scientist later.
    • Like Like x 1
  9. Probably since before Francis Walsingham was hyping the Papist menace and trying to get Lizzie to invade the low countries .
  10. "Classic suicide".

    Odd phrase to use. Perhaps he should have said "Art nouveau suicide", or "baroque suicide"?
    • Like Like x 2
  11. Nah, GW1 was the greatest int. failure in living memory, closely followed by GW2.
    GW2 was however the greatest "fitting the [alleged] intelligence to suit the policy already chosen" since somewhere on the Polish/German border around 1939.
    The problem is that this stunt cannot ever be pulled again by HMG , even if it is necessary to do so as it will never ever be believable.....
    So much squandered for so little gain, but still an int. failure to begin with
  12. skid2

    skid2 LE Book Reviewer

    Cruel but probably right.

    If we had done a better job in Iraq ee may have saved some grief in Syria,.
  13. I also don't think another PM like Blair is likely to come along in a while, with quite so supine a Cabinet to ride roughshod over.

    Hiding legal advice from your own Cabinet is pretty low.
    • Like Like x 1
  14. I much prefer the 'post modern' suicide.