Iraq. Militants take back Mosul, Tikrit and march on Baghdad

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by 2/51, Jun 12, 2014.

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  1. Coalition Statement on Military Movements Near Kirkuk > Operation Inherent Resolve > News Releases
    Op IR and the exchanges of gunfire recently:
     
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  2. Gents is anyone seeing any threat moving towards Erbil? I am not, but local staff getting twitchy. I cant see a reason for this.
     
  3. Peshmerga: Iraqi Military Advancing in Two Areas Disputed With Kurds
    Only seen Dilaya and Mosul dam recently. It is Sputnik, but they are directly quoting:
     
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  4. Netanyahu lobbies world powers to stem Iraqi Kurd setbacks
    Israel stepping into the mix (quagmire?):
    They see the Kurds as pro western:
    Iraqi forces complete takeover of Kirkuk province after clashing with Kurds
    A three hour battle in the last region of Kirkuk to fall:
    Second instance of 'serious' fighting:
    Kirkuk, despite not being part of the previously agreed 'self rule' area of Iraq, was taken from IS:
    I suspect (as do others) that resistance will become much stronger should the Iraqi forces enter regions previously granted autonomous control.

    e2A: Baghdad must show restraint, respect Kurdish rights, France says
    A word from France. Probably preparing to surrender:
     
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  5. Iraq builds up forces south of Kurdish oil export pipeline - security sources
    Iraq may continue with its operations after Kirkuk:
    PM @HaiderAlAbadi orders Iraq armed forces not to enter the city limits of Erbil and stop at the pre-2003 borders - Iraq news map in English - News from Baghdad, Hawija operation and Kurdistan referendum - iraq.liveuamap.com
    However, elsewhere:
     
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  6. Kurds report Iraq attack south of oil export pipeline, Iraqis say no clashes
    Kurds allege PM is attacking Rabia'a which (tmk and happy to be corrected) is the principle pipeline out of Kurdistan. Iraqi govt says nothing is happening;
    Unconfirmed at the moment;
    Peshmerga and Iraqi PMF (Shia Militias) exchange heavy artillery fire in Mahmudiya village north of Sinjar for 40 minutes today - Iraq news map in English - News from Baghdad, Hawija operation and Kurdistan referendum - iraq.liveuamap.com
     
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  7. Iraq paramilitaries battle Kurds in push towards Turkish border oil hub
    There's more:
    AI say there has been civilian deaths and looting in Kirkuk:
    No confirmation on source as yet:
     
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  8. Kurdistan region offers to freeze independence vote, engage in talks with Baghdad
    Peace offer on the table from the Kurds:
    Iraq readies for final offensive on Islamic State near Syrian border
    Meanwhile:
     
  9. Bagdahd may see the current situation as being too unfavourable to the Kurds to make it worth negotiating with them. Iraq sends signals it may be too late for Kurds to negotiate
    The Iraqi army have been ordered to capture all disputed territory from the Kurds. The Iraqi PM has also demanded control of the border crossings to Turkey which are inside the KRG.
    Bagdahd have also demanded control of a pipeline that the Kurds use to export oil to Turkey.
    The Turks have said they would help Iraq re-open a damaged oil export pipeline that runs near Mosul, and said there are talks under way to close the Turkish border with the Kurdish region.
    The US have said they will not take sides in the dispute.
    In general, it sounds as if that now the Kurds have served their purpose and the regional and other outside players no longer need them, they're being cut loose to fend for themselves.

    In my opinion, how well Baghdad handles relations with the Kurds in the near future will play a great part in whether the Kurds accept their new demotion, or whether this will turn into a new centre of unrest or even a new civil war. If it does turn out badly, the Kurds will find it difficult to get outside support as their geographic situation does not favour them. In addition, the current Iraqi army and associated armed forces are much more competent than they were several years ago, and can use an anti-terrorism campaign against the remnants of IS as political and diplomatic cover in a crack down against the Kurds themselves.

    On the other hand, one must never under estimate the propensity of the Arabs to take a political situation from bad to worse.

    At present however, things seem to be going in Bagdahd's favour.
     
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  10. I think one of the biggest mistakes "the west" has made is in not backing the Kurds to a much greater degree.
    They would make far better allies than the Turks or Arabs have been.
     
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  11. Fear of Iranian general left Iraqi Kurdish oil fields deserted
    Time will tell if Baghdad will learn from the mistakes made in the past by alienating the Sunni population that initially welcomed IS. We’ve already had Tillerson saying the Shi’a militia’s should go and a response by a Shia cleric in Iraq and the removal of US troops. The Kurds may have called the referendum too early and acted on it rather than discussed it thinking (hoping?) the US would help. I wouldn’t write them off personally as they’ve caused Turkey a few headaches and of course took most of that territory in 2003/4. They were the only ones to stand up to IS whilst the Syrian and Iraqi armies did not.

    Iraq seems to be squeezing their sources of income. I’m unsure how this, an attack on the Kurdish ‘homeland’ will play out, 50% or more of the SDF who’ve been fighting IS for years are Kurds.

    The article talks about Qasem Soleimani - Wikipedia the IRGC Major General and his assistance to the Iraqi armed forces:
    It’s not just the oil in Kirkuk, the Kurds have been given $Bn’s in loans based on future oil production:
    A quick exit by the oil workers:
    The pumps are still not working:
    Bearing in mind the reports of looting, the oil workers are reluctant to return without safety guarantees:
    Some of the money involved:
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2017
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  12. Iraq, Syria converge on Islamic State's last strongholds
    Meanwhile, Iraqi mil units are taking on the last areas of Iraq held by IS. SAA are also planning to take on the last IS strongholds around the Euphrates:
    I don't think 'be killed or surrender and then be executed' is going to get many positive responses:
    A(l)bu Kamal next for SAA and allies:
     
  13. Iraqi forces, Kurdish Peshmerga agree on ceasefire, U.S.-led coalition says
    To quote Blackadder, maybe "The big knobs have gone round the table and yanked the iron out of the fire!"
    E2A:
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2017
  14. The Iraqis and Kurds have reached a 24 hour cease fire.
    Iraq, Kurdish Peshmerga fighters suspend hostilities
    It sounds though as if this is a technical cease fire, rather than a final resolution of the dispute. Baghdad want control of all the border crossing points, including for oil pipelines. This would give them a stranglehold on Kurdistan's economy.

    However, the KRG still want negotiations with Baghdad, something which the latter have rejected. It would appear to me that Baghdad see any sort of "negotiations" as being on the terms of Kurdish independence, whether official or defacto, and don't even want to start down that road.
    The US of course is not happy, as the US wants everyone to focus on the US agenda. The Kurds on the other hand see the recent civil war with IS as being a historic opportunity to pursue their own agenda, which is independence. This conflict was predicted a while ago by a number of observers. It is difficult to say at this point whether the Kurds will let this possibly once in a lifetime opportunity slip through their fingers.