Iraq. Militants take back Mosul, Tikrit and march on Baghdad

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by 2/51, Jun 12, 2014.

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  1. Eid Mubarak as one of the peeps on the thread said:

  2. If you lie down with the ekleb anar, you get up with istishadis, to update an old phrase for the caliphate.
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  3. The Iraqi government has declared the "Islamic State" extinguished as a "fictitious state". 'Their fictitious state has fallen': Iraqi officials declare victory over ISIS in Mosul
    With that, Mosul has been declared recaptured, although a small number of IS are still fighting in the old city.
    Thousands of civilians have died in the battle for Mosul, and around 900,000 have been made refugees.
    Many buildings have been reduced to rubble in the fighting, including the historic Grand al-Nuri Mosque.

    The war itself is of course not over. Although their largest city has been more or less captured, IS still fights on elsewhere. Even after those areas are captured however, a long term insurgency will likely remain for years to come.
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  4. Iraqi Prime Minister congratulates armed forces for Mosul 'victory'
    Not for the first time, the recapture of Mosul from IS is being claimed. Iraqi Prime Minister has visited the troops. Macron has tweeted his congratulations:
    Still a long way to go to defeat IS and what comes next for the religiously and ethnically divided city:
    40% casualties in the spearhead CT units:
  5. seaweed

    seaweed LE Book Reviewer

    As you say indeed, 'Not for the first time, the recapture of Mosul from IS is being claimed'
  6. They'll need to get those chaps up to strength PDQ, they also keep in check the PMUs.
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  7. Iraq's Abadi to declare Mosul victory, few pockets of resistance
    Okay, victory is near (again). Still a small patch:
    Graphic of the damage caused whether by IS or coalition. I'm not sure what the answer is? Avoiding accidental deaths by people prepared to use them as human shields. Starve them out? But probably better than indiscriminate carpet bombing as per Aleppo:

    Apparently 700,000 displaced, but the UN are allowed in to deal with refugees:
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  8. Amnesty says Iraq and allies violated international law in Mosul battle
    I'm sure some posters would try and equate this with the systematic destruction of Aleppo. However, Amnesty appear to be calling the use of IRAMs (Improvised Rocket Assisted Munitions) a war crime. No response from the Iraqi govt or coalition yet:
    Nice to see Amnesty also condemn IS:
    I wonder what their solution is? Let them remain under IS control? Easy to criticise from the sidelines:
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  9. Sporadic clashes continue in Mosul after victory declared
    Sporadic fighting continues in Mosul despite the declaration of "total victory". This included at least one air strike.
    Despite losing in Mosul, IS has seized Imam Gharbi, located on the about 70 km south of Mosul. It's not clear from the news report how this factors into IS movements - whether it's on their line of retreat or an advance by other elements of their army.
    Amnesty International issued a report saying the battle in Mosul has created a "civilian catastrophe".
    They pinned most of the blame on IS for IS for killing civilians and using them as human shields.
    IS moved civilians around the city, preventing them from escaping. However, the Iraqi army and associated forces, and the US led coalition also came in for some criticism for failing to adapt their tactics to take this into account.
    Criticism specifically appears to revolve around the use of air strikes in very densely populated areas where extensive collateral damage and casualties are an inevitable side effect of any sort of large bomb regardless of how closely it hits its intended target.
    Civilian casualty numbers in this news story are simply put at "thousands", but this figure does not include those still buried in the rubble of destroyed buildings.
    In addition to the killed or wounded, nearly 900,000 people were displaced from their homes. Many will not be able to return to the city due to the extensive damage.
    This raises the rather interesting question of where these displaced people will go, and what effects this will have on Iraq's delicate ethnic and religious balance.

    Vice News offers some additional details and some different perspectives in this story. Battle to defeat ISIS in Mosul created “civilian catastrophe,” report says

    More detail is provided here on the use of air strikes. The problem is apparently that as IS was compressed into a smaller and smaller area, the number of munitions used on them remained the same. This meant that the number of munitions used per unit of area was increasing.
    This raises the question of whether the use of PGM to supposedly reduce civilian casualties is really a valid approach in dense urban areas. In other words, the conventional wisdom regarding PGM may need some serious re-thinking.
    The example given is where a 500 lb bomb was used to take out 2 IS snipers, causing more than 100 civilian casualties. I might speculate that perhaps the problem may not so much be the use of PGM, but rather their over-use.
    Between the several reports quoted by the news story, total civilian casualties caused by Iraqi and coalition forces between February and June at more than 3,700, with an additional 4,000 bodies estimated to be buried in the rubble.
    The number killed by IS while attempting to escape is put at "hundreds if not thousands".
    MSF said that the number of civilians who turned up at their medical facility in Mosul was much less than anticipated. This leads them to suspect that many people "didn't manage to escape". It's not immediately clear from that whether he was referring to people just remaining in place, or whether he was implying whether far more people were killed than thus far suspected.
    From the above, it would appear that total civilian casualties in the battle for Mosul were somewhere on the order of 10,000. While not a trivial number, it's not on the scale of the epic sieges of WWII. The extensive physical destruction in Mosul will present a major problem for recovery for an Iraqi government who still has a war to pay for while also facing financial problems caused by prolonged low oil prices.
  10. Iraq strikes Islamic State in Mosul days after declaring victory
    Fat ladies are not singing:
    Apparently it's 'clearing ops':
    There might be as many as a hundred IS members still in Mosul:
    They need to get a plan in place for governance and security underway asap. The sad fact is they could be in exactly the same place in eighteen months or so's time:
    Allegedly Shia militias are up to their old tricks in other areas:
  11. Russia's Putin, Iraqi VP discuss tanks supply deal
    So that's possibly T90s to Iraq and S400s to Turkey. I bet the US is chuffed to bits with that:
  12. Kurdish independence vote damages U.S. efforts to preserve unified Iraq
    A piece on the recent vote by the Kurds. If they do decide to go for independence, not only is it an issue for Iraq, but for Turkey, Syria and Iran. With regard to Iraq, it's seen as diminishing US influence (and waste of lives and $Bn's), affecting the current fight against IS and increasing Iranian influence in Iraq:
    Kirkuk is seen as a potential flashpoint:
    A possible halt to coalition and SDF advances against IS:
    US losing influence:
    The Kurds apparently fear Iranian influence in Baghdad:
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  13. Mornin'. Yers saw that, but it has been on the cards for a long time ever since Saddam was toppled. It stood to reason that the Kurds would do that. It's also been Long known that Turkey wouldn't stand for it interfering with their hegemony. As for Iran it'll take the leavings. Pandora's box eh- well done Blair.:rolleyes: