Iraq. Militants take back Mosul, Tikrit and march on Baghdad

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by 2/51, Jun 12, 2014.

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  1. U.S. to host 68-nation meeting on countering Islamic State
    Coalition meeting on what to do next re IS. Mosul and Raqqa under siege. Where is their next bolt hole? Where has al-Baghdadi gone?
     
  2. Londonistan, Lutonistan, Bradfordistan, Birmhamisharamistan if he's got any sense

    Any of which would be a safe place to arrive and claim asylum, after all he can claim he's not safe in his country now and those pesky human rights lawyers would be queuing up to offer their services billed to the tax payer of course
     
  3. Capturing Mosul and Raqqa are unlikely to signal the end of the war. Canadian sources expect to see a long running insurgency.

    Success against IS will require the continuation of stable government in Iraq and Syria. Any weakness in either would give IS an opening to come back.

    The surrounding countries all have their own agendas which they may go back to pursuing once the immediate crisis dies down. They also have seemingly short memories about the consequences of such activities. This could return us back to square one again if we forget about how we got to where we are today.

    As the saying goes, this isn't the end or even the beginning of the end.
     
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  4. There's talk of Deir al-Zor and beyond as the next bolt hole. Maybe even beyond. Whilst IS are withdrawing from the areas they considered their Caliphate they still have considerable freedom of movement in other areas, particularly Syria.

    Whilst the coalition continue to strike them it will be a long time before they can even be said to be beaten and unlikely to be defeated as they will move onto more asymmetric warfare. A long operation but doable if other factors don't come into play.

    Meanwhile the SDF will want something for their efforts as will Iran in both Syria and Iraq. Russia so far seems 'happy' with what it has accomplished in Syria. Will they continue to help Assad take more territory? Or 'withdraw' again? Look to a new relationship with the US and 'resolve' Crimea/Ukraine.

    Whether Assad really wants to look for peace or whether he will continue with his efforts remains to be seen but the underlying problems of the Syrian civil war remain as do the problems of half the population being displaced.

    Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria. Shi'ite Militia's in both controlled by Iran. Happy to continue or do they see something else? When IS is pushed out of Iraq will they continue or will they go elsewhere? Or are they already making plans?

    Then there's Turkey.

    So many irons in so many fires so no chickens to count for a long while yet
     
  5. I think al-Baghdadi will probably be checking out of Syria and heading either for the likes of Sudan/Somalia before either branching out to maybe Libya but I think more likely heading for the stans to a suitable bolthole and rebuild IS. It doesn't matter where the caliphate starts just so long as it is built. In the stans they can hit out at Russia for past grievances. It will take a considerable time before the ideology of IS is killed if ever.
     
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  6. I agree re IS but whether al-Baghdadi gets out remains to be seen. Not impossible but I think he'd rather stay in the current area for a while, not least if there are 'US boots on the ground' as a lot of the rhetoric has been geared that way.

    Personally I hope the 'stans as that may take Russia's eye off Libya and allow a proper unified govt and direction against the various factions there. Doubtful but there's always hope
     
  7. If he stays too long he won't be able to get out or is that his planned endgame, going down giving it to US forces? IS can survive without him but these types tend to be somewhat cowardly when it comes to their own flesh and blood. Agree on Libya, Russia will have its hands full with whatever happens in Syria.
     
  8. It's what the rhetoric and 'final battle' have been about. I doubt Raqqa will fall for about 6-7 months yet so he has time albeit time whilst hunted
    Agreed
    I think Russia wants to get out of Syria. Concentrate on its near abroad and reset itself with the US. Keep its port in Syria, meddle in Libya etc.

    It's apparently not a popular war at home. Whether Assad lets him ie doesn't kick the whole thing off again I don't know. It's theirs, Turkey's and Iran's peace process at Astana and Geneva now. Too early to say for me
     
  9. A UK contribution to Mosul.

     
  10. Wonder how that will go. They were hoping for a major battle with the great satan. Now they're looking at a hammering from fellow muslims and the Russians with maybe a few US and European "observers" thrown in. Doesn't quite sound like the showdown they were hoping for more like a poor man's version of the end of the 1000 year reich.

    Interesting point. Puttin wants some kind of presence in the Med be that Syria, Libya or elsewhere however Syria depends on having Assad in power unless there is another move they can make.
     
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  11. I do hope, that the expat brits playing with isis are not returned in working order !
     
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  12. After some initial problems I believe it's gone quite well. Classic SOF on a big scale. Training, mentoring and providing. Provision of assets such as heavy artillery and PGMs from the air. The main thing is that the IS rhetoric hasn't been answered ie no 'US boots on the ground' which would undoubtedly have helped IS recruitment.

    The Iraqi CT and SF units have done well building on earlier successes. The Shi'ite militias (comparatively) haven't been able to make it into a Sunni / Shia dispute despite the suicide attacks by IS and some of their actions. SDF are now more 'balanced' with higher numbers of arabs.

    The main success I believe has been using local troops to do a local job. What Iran does after IS are driven from Iraq remains to be seen. The Shia and Sunni problems won't go away.
    Russia has the port (Tartus) and airbase (Latakia) and Iran also has access to the port according to reports. Assad will stay for a while. Geneva still talks about UNSC Resolution 2254 and a transition govt. Astana is the ceasefire. Who knows.

    Meanwhile Putin has been entertaining Libya's 'General in the East' (Haftar) who doesn't support the UN agreed GNA. Again, what is the plan? Why approve the GNA but support someone else? How is it countered? Should it be countered?

    As they say, interesting times :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2017
  13. Islamic State frees Mosul prisoners as grip on last major city slips
    Looks like IS are releasing some of their 'lower grade' prisoners such as those smoking, selling cigarettes and possessing mobile phones:
    Iraq says 'no evidence' of chemical weapons attacks in Mosul
    Iraqi forces stating the use of chemical weapons by IS mentioned last week is incorrect. Red Cross (then referred to the UN) had 12 'victims' but their investigation so far states not chemical weapon related:
     
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  14. Vice News are reporting that a mass grave of about 500 bodies has been found in Mosul. Allegedly IS executed up to 600 Shia prisoners in 2014 after letting the Sunni and Christians go.

    There is a video which goes along with the story which may have more details, but I couldn't get it to play.
    Mass grave of 500 bodies unearthed outside Mosul
     
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  15. IS Mosul commander killed, government forces battle for bridge
    Another one gone. IS head in the Old City of Mosul, a clear HVT has met his timely end. Three of the five bridges crossing the Tigris now held as well:
     
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