Irans Economic War

Discussion in 'Economics' started by bokkatankie, Apr 15, 2006.

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  1. The Op Persian Freedom was getting a littel of point so thought we could do with a different angle:

    Oil is now over $70 a barrel, the US is a net importer as is the rest of the western states. If oil continues to rise and it will if the Iranian President continues to make slightly deranged statements and the West responds with aggressive retorts.

    Me thinks the Iranians have a plan that has nothing to do with Nuclear weapons and everything to do with economic warfare. The Soviet system fell via Reagan's economic war plan. Could the USA be heading in the same direction, at what point does oil become too expensive, at what point does the budget deficit cause the Dollar to crash?

    If the dollar crashes, the adage that if New York Sneezes the world gets a cold will be more like the world will get "Bird Flu"!

    Iran is getting lots of money for its oil, the west needs its oil, the President keeps scaring everyone - it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  2. Perhaps it's what's needed. Suddenly another oil crisis. The western world realises it is a fragile resource, americans start buying more effecient cars, and everyone uses less energy (in the UK hardly any electricity generation is from oil, mainly used for domestic heating and transport)
    Some of it is basic economics, finite resource, as consumption increases so does price. The economies of the west world are more robust than that of Iran. We could cope with a large increase in oil price if we made a move against Iran (china couldn't) but Iran would lose a huge majority of it's income.
    If the Iranian president is playing this game perhaps he should read the rules?
  3. I agree that the Western Economies are potentially more robust than Iran's. However, they have demonstrated that they can also be very fragile and oil, to mix metaphors, is the Achilles heal of the western and developed world. Waking up to alternatives will not solve the long-term dependency quick enough to prevent economic chaos.

    Iran does not need or have the vast consumer society that the western world depends on, it will always have markets for its oil and any price over $30 is good enough to maintain its economy (this is the same for Saudi Arabia)

    In 1973 the world woke up to a new world order called OPEC.

    The short term danger is an global economic crisis -and if that does not worry you, think of your pension funds, your property and other investments.

    Then think of this on a global scale, the markets crash, oil consumption reduces but Iran is still selling, the price may recede a little but Iran is still selling and then they can restart the cycle of price pushing. The developed nations are oil junkies and OPEC is the dealer.

    The current 'crisis" is, I believe, more to do with a very long term strategy that has been playing out ever since OPEC came into existence.
  4. That depends on whether we can stop Iran selling full stop. The idea would be that noone would be able to buy Iran's oil. Therefore Russia and China would need to be onboard (not because Russia buy, but they like taking the other side of the argument). If Iran couldn't sell they would collapse and crumble very very fast (no corrupt oil for food etc). There is no current "crisis", it's something played up by the media to make something sound more interesting. The best thing about an oil crisis would be that we don't have replacements, there are very few electric cars etc, therefore people will HAVE to reduce their consumption which would also have a positive impact on the environment AND mean that we'd have better energy security as the North Sea would be providing a greater percentage of our need. (Because our need has had to be reduced)

    Bring it on Iran I say (I'm kidding, I don't want to see a conflict with Iran but it may well happen)
  5. 'There is no current "crisis", it's something played up by the media to make something sound more interesting"

    I cannot agree with this - the media would never stoop so low, how can you be so cynical.

    As I have said the alternatives to oil do not form part of the thread, we all know we need to reduce oil consumption but we will not do that in the short term and OPEC knows this, economic chaos can take many years to plan and fulfil.
  6. Oil consumption can drop. Look at end-user energy demand, there are significant dips at the time of the oil crisis and also the miners strikes. We may not be able to reduce consumption quite enough, but could reduce a lot. I'm not just suggesting "buy a hybrid" but literally far fewer people using their cars far less and it may encourage local produce by increasing transport cost. Over an extended period it could have drive greater energy effeciency gains, a realisation that we've been taking our living standards for granted and people may use energy more sparingly... Help, I'm turning into a hippy :(
  7. B*llocks

    You cannot change human nature - that is the whole problem. Friends of the Earth do not inhabit the same planet.

    Get back to the point, I really do not want to discuss alternatives to oil, I want to discuss my conspiracy theory!!!!!!
  8. I remember reading on arrse some months back that Iran was preparing to change from selling oil for dollars to selling for Euros. Has this threat been carried out?
  9. If Iran cant sell its oil they will be hurting economically. No tankers going into Iranian ports for a month and the mad mullaha's may change their tune.
  10. Maybe they will sell exclusively to China and India - both of whom foresee increasing their imports. That has the added benefit of making an attack on Iranian oil installations an attack on Chinese and Indian national interests - have you seen exactly where the new Iranian terminal will be ?

    Also, the fact that the US is not willing to accept economic disruption to win does not mean that the Iranians won't. Indeed, it makes such a move more likely. If the US was genuinely interested in winning this one it would be embarking on a crash programme to eliminate the need for imported oil - after all, they put a man on the moon in under a decade. Then who cares what happens in the Middle East ?
  11. As was pointed out to me previously on this thread there is a lot of money involved here, I work for a US oil company and we are F*cking loaded because of the oil price, if you reduce the demand for oil, you reduce the price and therefore profits.

    There will always be someone willing to buy Iranian oil, my (Yank) company works in Iran for Fu*cks sake!

    The yanks will contine to Bully, bribe and even overthrow governments to get their oil. Its the cheapest, most profitable way of doing business.

    It just grips my sh*t that the UK has got involved in this, couldn't give a f*ck about the billions its costing the UK, its the 104 thats gutting me.
  12. Today Oil has reached an all time high, Brent Crude 15:12 71.52 2.18 3.14%
    IPE Crude 15:12 71.88 2.02 2.89%

    This on concerns of worsening US / Iranian relations

    I agree with , One_of_the_strange, world markets for oil are changing, the iranians can last far longer on no oil revenue than the US can on no Oil.
  13. I thoiught it was blindingly obvious?

    It is economic warfare. It became startingly obvious to me at 0 dark-30 this morning, listenting to the Hamas statement. That came straight from Tehran. Who benefits from Middle Eastern instability? The Middle-Eastern OP states.

    Anyone got the figures for Iran's BoP deficit before Alemspellingmistake came to power , and since?

    Producing NucWeps my arrse , raking in improved oil revenue? Oh yes.
  14. Sadly it does not seem to be blindingly obvious to the media, to the US or all the other countries and organisations feeding the oil price frenzy.

    Oil traders are laughing all the way to the bank and the world does not seem to realise it is being taken for the biggest ride since "WMD"